question for the experts in game mechanics-the probability of instant death by weapons?

Dzuk5

i now 3 weapons with instant death skill:

Ravager +6 has 10%
Axe of the Unyielding +5 has 10% but enemy can make save throw
Silver Sword 25% with -2 death save

Assume that with these weapons, we hit the enemy at the same time.
I would like to know aggregated probability of instant dead.
I know that each enemy has different resistance, but let chose some constans or some monster like fire giants?
i don't now as much game mechanics and save throw is my worst area of knowing:/

once i tray to count that and it was obout more or less 20% aggregated is someone can confirm this or show that i'm wrong?

is there any other weapon with instatnt kill skill?

HandofTyr

Fire giants have a save vs. death of 3. I assume the axe of the unyielding uses that save as well, with no penalty. Fair warning- I'm not a statistician, so this could be off, but I think it should be more or less accurate.

Ravager has a flat 0.1 kill probability.
AoU has a 0.01 chance to kill (0.1 chance to trigger, 0.1 chance to fail the save- save failed on a roll of 1 or 2)
Silver sword has a 0.05 chance to kill (0.25 trigger, 0.2 fail the save- 1,2,3, or 4 roll)

That chance that at least one of these effects is triggered if all three weapons hit at the same time is 1- the chance that none of them trigger. 1- 0.9*0.95*0.99= 0.154, or 15.4%.

There is a new weapon with a similar effect, but it's not obtainable yet. Two handed sword with a 15% chance to kill, dunno if there's a save.

EDIT: Just went and looked at the AoU, and it imposes a -4 penalty to the save, so it has a 0.03 overall chance to kill a fire giant per swing. That brings the final probability to 17.1%.

Dzuk5

HandofTyr said:

Fire giants have a save vs. death of 3. I assume the axe of the unyielding uses that save as well, with no penalty. Fair warning- I'm not a statistician, so this could be off, but I think it should be more or less accurate.

Ravager has a flat 0.1 kill probability.
AoU has a 0.01 chance to kill (0.1 chance to trigger, 0.1 chance to fail the save- save failed on a roll of 1 or 2)
Silver sword has a 0.05 chance to kill (0.25 trigger, 0.2 fail the save- 1,2,3, or 4 roll)

That chance that at least one of these effects is triggered if all three weapons hit at the same time is 1- the chance that none of them trigger. 1- 0.9*0.95*0.99= 0.154, or 15.4%.

There is a new weapon with a similar effect, but it's not obtainable yet. Two handed sword with a 15% chance to kill, dunno if there's a save.

EDIT: Just went and looked at the AoU, and it imposes a -4 penalty to the save, so it has a 0.03 overall chance to kill a fire giant per swing. That brings the final probability to 17.1%.

thanks this is what i whant;) and your statistic skills are good mathematic formula also;)
that like i thing becouse of thouse sve throw this other 2 weapons are much worse then revenger
in old bg2 AoU had 10% without save throw that was cool, to bad it was dawngread.

kaffekoppen

No. Overall they failed to design 2h weapons that are good enough to be worth it over dual-wielding. It's good that the Ravager +6 is better. It should be.

Dzuk5

kaffekoppen said:

No. Overall they failed to design 2h weapons that are good enough to be worth it over dual-wielding. It's good that the Ravager +6 is better. It should be.

oki i agre that it should be better, but AoU dawngread from 10% chance to more or less 3% is to much in my opinion.
AoU could have 15% or 20% chance and save throw that gives him obout 5% nad that would be good