Wish probabilities?

Livegood118

Hi - does anyone here have the probabilities of the various effects that you can get with the wish spell at 18 Wis?

i.e. Let's say I cast project image and burn sixth ninth level spells casting wish, what're the chances I get the wish rest option?

Gallowglass

I don't know the exact probabilities, but from playing experience I reckon it doesn't usually take that many attempts to score the Wish-rest option ... usually once in every two or three attempts, I think.

luskan

It can still take quite a few. I've gone through multiple PIs before finally getting the rest option. Having a Planetar that can quickly remove your PI that's out of spells so you can cast another is highly recommended.

Livegood118

Thanks for the help guys.

Surprising given how powerful the effect is that someone hasn't cracked the code open and had a proper look at how it works.

sarevok57

Livegood118 said:

Thanks for the help guys.

Surprising given how powerful the effect is that someone hasn't cracked the code open and had a proper look at how it works.

because it's a lot harder than it looks, it requires some code cracking sorcery to understand how wish works, but from what I can gather so far, this is what I have:

so depending on wisdom, is what table the wish spell uses, so to make things easy, lets go with 18+ wisdom

now on this table, there are 25 options of what you can get, the "make it as if the whole party has rested and rememorize all spells" is -wish power 21- on line 10 of column 4

so from what I can gather, you have a 4% chance of that option coming up on one of your options

although I can't figure out as to why there are ( 5 options I believe? haven't cast wish in a long while) as apposed to 4 or 6 options to choose from

so with rough estimates, if you have 15+ wisdom it looks like there is a 4% chance that it will be one of your options, so if you are given 5 options, that gives you 5 opportunities of a 4% chance of one of them being "make it as if the whole party has rested and rememorize all spells"

so whatever whacky math you want to use, that looks like how it kind of works

Grond0

The chance of not getting wish then with each option is 0.96, so for 5 options the chance of not getting it would be 0.96 to the power of 5 or 81.5%.

If you cast wish 3 times 0.96 to the power of 15 is 0.54, so you've got slightly less than a half chance of getting a wish rest with 3 casts.

Livegood118

Very interesting guys thanks.

I'm trying to suss out whether it's worth getting it on a sorcerer that's casting with the Robe of Vecna – Amulet of Power – Improved Alacrity – Timestop combo. It doesn't seem to me that Wish isn't worthy of a level 9 spell slot on a sorcerer given how random it is when you can go for:

– Timestop
– Imprisonment
– Shapechange
– Spellstrike

and cast from Projected Images.

The only reason I'm asking about Wish is that I've heard that the Ascension Final Battle is ridiculously long so I'm wondering if I'll get caught with my trousers down if I don't have Wish. 10 Project images should be enough though right !?

Gallowglass

@Livegood118 - as always with a Sorcerer, you have to make a choice in advance about which tactics you want to be able to use. I'd probably ditch either Imprisonment or Shapechange and instead take Wish, but it's a matter of personal playing-style. An alternative is to keep a Wish scroll on hand, and cast it from a Simulacrum when you want to use it. Everything in the game except the Final Battle can be done without ever using Wish at all (although it can certainly make some earlier situations easier), but in the Final Battle (even without Ascension) a Wish-rest can be very helpful ... and with Ascension, it might well turn out to be essential.

With 10 instances of PI available, you'd be very unlucky indeed not to get a Wish-rest (although obviously there's no absolute guarantee).

ThacoBell

I've cleared Ascension final battle without Wish, so it is doable, but it is pretty brutal. I've heard people claim that they beat that battle using the special Bhaal powers you get as the only micro, but I've never personally managed that.

Kurona

The Ascension battle is pretty tough for pure spellcasters. If you don't play on Insane you can restore your spell slots by using the pools that give the Bhaal powers, which should alleviate the temptation of casting Wish.