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  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    To tell the truth, I'm just not prone to fear much at all. I'm not afraid of Antifa, the Anti-Christ, ghosts, UFO's, coyotes, right wingers, left wingers, Covid or any of the myriad of things I'm told I'm supposed to be afraid of. I've been around the block way too long now. Fuck the fear-mongers. Law of the Mackerel...

    What's the Law of the Mackerel? I googled it but it only points to a book about fisheries.
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited August 2021
    I either posted here or in the COVID-19 thread about a school board meeting in Tennessee where doctors and nurses were accosted and threatened simply for trying to answer questions about the current situation. Ten days later, that school district has 40% of it's students and 25% of it's staff out sick and now basically has to shut down indefinitely.

    Why am I bringing this up?? Because we have what seems to be an growing cross-section of lunatics who are one step away from beating the piss out of healthcare workers because they don't like being inconvenienced in any way. What right-wing media have done to these people and the guy yesterday is just stunning. Goebbels would have looked at Facebook, AM radio and FOX News and jizzed his pants at how effective it is. Complete brain rot has overtaken millions upon millions of people.

    On the one hand, these people have agency. They are choosing to consume this poison day after day. On the other hand, the people who absolutely know better, who are feeding this shit to them, for profit, deserve to spend eternity in the lowest circle of hell.
    Post edited by jjstraka34 on
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    m7600 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    To tell the truth, I'm just not prone to fear much at all. I'm not afraid of Antifa, the Anti-Christ, ghosts, UFO's, coyotes, right wingers, left wingers, Covid or any of the myriad of things I'm told I'm supposed to be afraid of. I've been around the block way too long now. Fuck the fear-mongers. Law of the Mackerel...

    What's the Law of the Mackerel? I googled it but it only points to a book about fisheries.

    I kinda came up with that one on my own. I'm surprised somebody hasn't used it before me though. Basically, I'm just one little fish in a big bait ball so the odds of any of this shit actually affecting me personally is really slim approaching negligible. It occurred to me when I really started to think about how many people there are on this planet or even in the US and how the numbers of people affected by something is not as relevant as the numbers affected divided by the total number of people. It helps that I work with data and being a scientist I'm used to dealing with both very large, and very small numbers...
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    I either posted here or in the COVID-19 thread about a school board meeting in Tennessee where doctors and nurses were accosted and threatened simply for trying to answer questions about the current situation. Ten days later, that school district has 40% of it's students and 25% of it's staff out sick and now basically has to shut down indefinitely.

    Why am I bringing this up?? Because we have what seems to be an growing cross-section of lunatics who are one step away from beating the piss out healthcare workers because they don't like being inconvenienced in any way. What right-wing media have done to these people and the guy yesterday is just stunning. Goebbels would have looked at Facebook, AM radio and FOX News and jizzed his pants at how effective it is. Complete brain rot has overtaken millions upon millions of people.

    On the one hand, these people have agency. They are choosing to consume this poison day after day. On the other hand, the people who absolutely know better, who are feeding this shit to them, for profit, deserve to spend eternity in the lowest circle of hell.

    I've been the only person wearing a mask on numerous occasions lately, whether it's been the grocery store, gas station or party store. I'm not even afraid of Covid myself (but since I was feeling fatigued and had other symptoms last week, I actually got tested just in case - came back negative) but I'm determined that if somebody gets sick it ain't gonna be from me. I'm not surprised, but I am disgusted with my fellow human-beings these days. At least here in Michigan I don't get any dirty looks or comments for wearing one. Don't know if I'd bother wearing one down south...
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    edited August 2021
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    I kinda came up with that one on my own. I'm surprised somebody hasn't used it before me though. Basically, I'm just one little fish in a big bait ball so the odds of any of this shit actually affecting me personally is really slim approaching negligible. It occurred to me when I really started to think about how many people there are on this planet or even in the US and how the numbers of people affected by something is not as relevant as the numbers affected divided by the total number of people. It helps that I work with data and being a scientist I'm used to dealing with both very large, and very small numbers...

    Something like this?

    Given a set "N" and a subset "A", where "N" is the total population, "A" is the number of affected people, and "R" measures the relevance:

    (R * N) < (R * (A / N))

    Let's flesh this out with some numbers. Let "N" be 100, "A" 20, and R "-1", then:

    (-1 * 100) < (-1 * 20 / 100)

    Which gives us:

    -100 < -0.2

    Which is true. But the relevance has to be a negative number, either -1, or -5, or -100, or whatever. If it's a positive number then it's no longer true that (R * N) < (R * (A / N).

    Or would you represent this whole situation differently?
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    m7600 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    I kinda came up with that one on my own. I'm surprised somebody hasn't used it before me though. Basically, I'm just one little fish in a big bait ball so the odds of any of this shit actually affecting me personally is really slim approaching negligible. It occurred to me when I really started to think about how many people there are on this planet or even in the US and how the numbers of people affected by something is not as relevant as the numbers affected divided by the total number of people. It helps that I work with data and being a scientist I'm used to dealing with both very large, and very small numbers...

    Something like this?

    Given a set "N" and a subset "A", where "N" is the total population, "A" is the number of affected people, and "R" measures the relevance:

    (R * N) < (R * (A / N))

    Let's flesh this out with some numbers. Let "N" be 100, "A" 20, and R "-1", then:

    (-1 * 100) < (-1 * 20 / 100)

    Which gives us:

    -100 < -0.2

    Which is true. But the relevance has to be a negative number, either -1, or -5, or -100, or whatever. If it's a positive number then it's no longer true that (R * N) < (R * (A / N).

    Or would you represent this whole situation differently?

    F = probability factor (raw value of %, ppm, ppb or whatever - so 1 % = 0.01, 1 ppm = 0.000001, etc...)

    N is fine as total population (or rather, total relevant population)

    R is fine as relevance factor - but risk factor is probably a better nickname for it

    R = FN/N

    Everybody will have a different R 'tolerance' but looking at it as a number may actually be informative. One could also look at 1/R to see it as an integer rather than a tiny number better represented in scientific notation.

    Keep in mind that when they tell you that 'x' doubles your chance of 'y' they seldom tell you the raw odds of getting 'y'. You would have to factor both of those odds together to represent R.



  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    N is fine as total population (or rather, total relevant population)

    I just realized that I made a mistake in the formula I proposed, instead of (R * N) < (R * (A / N) it should be:

    (R * A) < (R * (A / N).

    Using the numbers I proposed, this means:

    (-1 * 20) < (-1 * (20 / 100))

    So:

    -20 < -0.2

    In other words, on the left side, instead of multiplying R by N, it should be multiplied by A instead.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    edited August 2021
    m7600 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    N is fine as total population (or rather, total relevant population)

    I just realized that I made a mistake in the formula I proposed, instead of (R * N) < (R * (A / N) it should be:

    (R * A) < (R * (A / N).

    Using the numbers I proposed, this means:

    (-1 * 20) < (-1 * (20 / 100))

    So:

    -20 < -0.2

    In other words, on the left side, instead of multiplying R by N, it should be multiplied by A instead.

    The only time that formula wouldn't be correct is if A=N (since a subset can never be larger than the set itself) thus R itself has no meaning in your equation. Better to solve for R and set a threshold for R to be relevant.
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    Yeah, it's kind of difficult for me to see what R would represent. I think get the idea of the risk factor, but these formulas will probably be different depending on what we're modeling. For example, in the case of infectious diseases, like the ones caused by parasites, there's other things going on. If you have a population of 100 cows, the distribution of their parasites won't be even across the board. Usually you'll have a few heavily infected cows, and the rest is either slightly infected or not at all, because parasites tend to aggregate in a few hosts.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    edited August 2021
    m7600 wrote: »
    Yeah, it's kind of difficult for me to see what R would represent. I think get the idea of the risk factor, but these formulas will probably be different depending on what we're modeling. For example, in the case of infectious diseases, like the ones caused by parasites, there's other things going on. If you have a population of 100 cows, the distribution of their parasites won't be even across the board. Usually you'll have a few heavily infected cows, and the rest is either slightly infected or not at all, because parasites tend to aggregate in a few hosts.

    R is a numerical representation of an individual's risk tolerance. It might be estimatable for a given person if you can quantify any of the variables that contribute to somebody's R. If somebody has an R of 0.1 that would indicate he doesn't get fearful until there's > 10% chance of being affected.

    Edit: Of course that same person might have an R of 0.99 if it involves a spider! Even though the odds of a spider harming you are extremely remote...
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    edited August 2021
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    Edit: Of course that same person might have an R of 0.99 if it involves a spider! Even though the odds of a spider harming you are extremely remote...

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/02/australian-man-screaming-at-spider-why-dont-you-die-triggers-full-police-response
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    edited August 2021
    Well, in their defense, there are some pretty nasty spiders Down Under! ?
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    “Where’s your wife?” an officer asked.

    "I don’t have one,” the man replied.

    “Where’s your girlfriend?” he pressed.

    “I don’t have one,” he said.

    Police told the man neighbours had heard the screams, the threats to kill, the dull thud of flung furniture. “Come on mate, what have you done to her?” the officer asked.

    “It was a spider,” the man replied sheepishly. “A really big one.”

    “What about the woman screaming?”

    “Yeah sorry, that was me,” he said. “I really, really hate spiders.”
  • jonesr65jonesr65 Member Posts: 66
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    I either posted here or in the COVID-19 thread about a school board meeting in Tennessee where doctors and nurses were accosted and threatened simply for trying to answer questions about the current situation. Ten days later, that school district has 40% of it's students and 25% of it's staff out sick and now basically has to shut down indefinitely.

    Why am I bringing this up?? Because we have what seems to be an growing cross-section of lunatics who are one step away from beating the piss out healthcare workers because they don't like being inconvenienced in any way. What right-wing media have done to these people and the guy yesterday is just stunning. Goebbels would have looked at Facebook, AM radio and FOX News and jizzed his pants at how effective it is. Complete brain rot has overtaken millions upon millions of people.

    On the one hand, these people have agency. They are choosing to consume this poison day after day. On the other hand, the people who absolutely know better, who are feeding this shit to them, for profit, deserve to spend eternity in the lowest circle of hell.

    I've been the only person wearing a mask on numerous occasions lately, whether it's been the grocery store, gas station or party store. I'm not even afraid of Covid myself (but since I was feeling fatigued and had other symptoms last week, I actually got tested just in case - came back negative) but I'm determined that if somebody gets sick it ain't gonna be from me. I'm not surprised, but I am disgusted with my fellow human-beings these days. At least here in Michigan I don't get any dirty looks or comments for wearing one. Don't know if I'd bother wearing one down south...

    I live in Arkansas and my wife just retired from the VA, my daughter is 18 and a HS senior, my twin sons are both teachers and we all wear masks all the time when we are out in public. So far no one has said anything to us but I don't care. We will do our best to keep ourselves safe and anyone we come in to contact with.

    Also its kind of strange twist, someone I know posted a picture from the 1980 from a conservative religious group about how to keep your family safe from AIDs and the whole family in the picture was wearing masks.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    edited August 2021
    jonesr65 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    I either posted here or in the COVID-19 thread about a school board meeting in Tennessee where doctors and nurses were accosted and threatened simply for trying to answer questions about the current situation. Ten days later, that school district has 40% of it's students and 25% of it's staff out sick and now basically has to shut down indefinitely.

    Why am I bringing this up?? Because we have what seems to be an growing cross-section of lunatics who are one step away from beating the piss out healthcare workers because they don't like being inconvenienced in any way. What right-wing media have done to these people and the guy yesterday is just stunning. Goebbels would have looked at Facebook, AM radio and FOX News and jizzed his pants at how effective it is. Complete brain rot has overtaken millions upon millions of people.

    On the one hand, these people have agency. They are choosing to consume this poison day after day. On the other hand, the people who absolutely know better, who are feeding this shit to them, for profit, deserve to spend eternity in the lowest circle of hell.

    I've been the only person wearing a mask on numerous occasions lately, whether it's been the grocery store, gas station or party store. I'm not even afraid of Covid myself (but since I was feeling fatigued and had other symptoms last week, I actually got tested just in case - came back negative) but I'm determined that if somebody gets sick it ain't gonna be from me. I'm not surprised, but I am disgusted with my fellow human-beings these days. At least here in Michigan I don't get any dirty looks or comments for wearing one. Don't know if I'd bother wearing one down south...

    I live in Arkansas and my wife just retired from the VA, my daughter is 18 and a HS senior, my twin sons are both teachers and we all wear masks all the time when we are out in public. So far no one has said anything to us but I don't care. We will do our best to keep ourselves safe and anyone we come in to contact with.

    Also its kind of strange twist, someone I know posted a picture from the 1980 from a conservative religious group about how to keep your family safe from AIDs and the whole family in the picture was wearing masks.

    Yeah, I remember those days. Back then the conspiracy theory was that the government was lying to us about AIDS 'not' being easily transmissable. It soon morphed into 'only gay guys get it so who cares' though, and the religious right started opposing every effort to combat the disease. Of course when it was found out that gay guys weren't the only ones getting it, the government was lying about that. And ultimately when it was proven beyond a doubt that it wasn't just a gay male disease, it became a gay male, loose women disease. Good times... ?
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    My mind wandering again. Just got done watching another insipid Michigan Lottery ad while playing my morning Mahjongg on my laptop and got to wondering how much money is spent and by who on these state scams. Not surprisingly it seems to be a back door tax on the poor. Ironically, at the same time the feds want to get the inner cities' wireless infrastructures modernized, and get smart phones and wireless internet to poor people, Michigan is launching an easy to use phone app for playing the lottery. How convenient!

    https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/state-lottery/

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2016/1/13/10763268/lottery-poor-prey

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liberationnews.org/the-lottery-the-cost-of-hope-a-tax-on-the-poor/?amp=1
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited August 2021
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    My mind wandering again. Just got done watching another insipid Michigan Lottery ad while playing my morning Mahjongg on my laptop and got to wondering how much money is spent and by who on these state scams. Not surprisingly it seems to be a back door tax on the poor. Ironically, at the same time the feds want to get the inner cities' wireless infrastructures modernized, and get smart phones and wireless internet to poor people, Michigan is launching an easy to use phone app for playing the lottery. How convenient!

    https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/state-lottery/

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2016/1/13/10763268/lottery-poor-prey

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liberationnews.org/the-lottery-the-cost-of-hope-a-tax-on-the-poor/?amp=1

    I wouldn't call it a "tax" exactly. It's absolutely exploitative in the same way payday lenders are though.
  • deltagodeltago Member Posts: 7,811
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    My mind wandering again. Just got done watching another insipid Michigan Lottery ad while playing my morning Mahjongg on my laptop and got to wondering how much money is spent and by who on these state scams. Not surprisingly it seems to be a back door tax on the poor. Ironically, at the same time the feds want to get the inner cities' wireless infrastructures modernized, and get smart phones and wireless internet to poor people, Michigan is launching an easy to use phone app for playing the lottery. How convenient!

    https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/state-lottery/

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2016/1/13/10763268/lottery-poor-prey

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liberationnews.org/the-lottery-the-cost-of-hope-a-tax-on-the-poor/?amp=1

    I wouldn't call it a "tax" exactly. It's absolutely exploitative in the same way payday lenders are though.

    I'd call it a tax if the proceeds go to fund state projects.

    I also think more needs to be done to combat the exploitive nature of online gambling instead of embracing it as a revenue stream. A person very close to me is currently dealing with a gambling addiction and it is by far the worst and most trying addiction I personally had to deal with (and I have dealt with a lot).
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    So here's something interesting I stumbled upon the other day, "Marxist capitalism". This term was created by Simon Biltcliffe, who started a company called Webmart. More info here:

    https://www.monkhouseandcompany.com/podcast/a-marxist-capitalist-approach-to-business-meet-simon-biltcliffe/

    An quote:

    "Webmart is a “marxist-capitalist” business. What that means is that they use capitalism to create value (intellectually, emotionally and financially). And then they use marxist principles to redistribute it fairly amongst their employees.

    They have 42 employees, a £30 million turnover and a very strong balance sheet. They’ve never borrowed any money and they attract really interesting people to work with them.

    The first £400k of post-tax profits is retained in the business. Between £400k and £1 million profit, half goes to Simon and half goes to the team. Above £1 million profit, 100% of it goes to the team. These numbers are fixed and they make their employees feel that they are also entrepreneurs."
  • wukewuke Member Posts: 113
    Something funny I observed around me recently:
    Nobody:
    Average Chinese: the Muslims are forcing women to wear those trash bags! Purge the green cancer from Earth!
    Taliban: Women in Afghanistan will have to wear burqas but "will be able to go to school and work"
    Average Chinese: aT LeAsT THey CaN HaVE eDUcaTiOn aLSo iT's FaIr sINCe mEn HAvE tO KEeP BeARd
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    wuke wrote: »
    Something funny I observed around me recently:
    Nobody:
    Average Chinese: the Muslims are forcing women to wear those trash bags! Purge the green cancer from Earth!
    Taliban: Women in Afghanistan will have to wear burqas but "will be able to go to school and work"
    Average Chinese: aT LeAsT THey CaN HaVE eDUcaTiOn aLSo iT's FaIr sINCe mEn HAvE tO KEeP BeARd

    Neither is 'fair' both laws are arbitrary 'you must follow my religion's customs or go to jail' bullshit. If you're really from China then I would love for you to explain how Mao killing millions of his own people is somehow more moral than the West. I get that you're catching up and more power to you, but your people aren't anymore 'moral' than mine...
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    @Balrog99 I don't think that is what they meant. At least, the way I read it, those are the attitudes they've been seeing recently, and is amused at the hypocrisy.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    edited August 2021
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    @Balrog99 I don't think that is what they meant. At least, the way I read it, those are the attitudes they've been seeing recently, and is amused at the hypocrisy.

    Quite possibly, but I would like clarification. Hypocrisy is not solely a Western trait...

    Edit: Unless you mean that you think @wuke is trying to portray irony. That is tough to pull off in a multinational politics thread. Perhaps I'm being too defensive???
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    Yeah, I agree with @ThacoBell here, I read @wuke 's comment the same way. He's saying that the average person from China criticizes the Taliban, but when the Taliban respond that women can still go to work and school, then the Chinese person from this example changes their mind and says "well that's good, they can get an education just like men".

    In his example, the Taliban say that women should still wear a veil, which is why the Chinese person says "Yeah, and men still have to have beards, so I guess it's fair, both genders have to comply with the aesthetic rules of their society".
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,371
    Wow, apparently even Trump can't get these dipshits to get vaccinated...

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/08/donald-trump-cullman-alabama-rally-covid-boo/
  • wukewuke Member Posts: 113
    Well I was hesitant to post the somewhat irrelevant rant in this thread, but I was talking about the double standard here. I would say many of "us" are even secretly envious of how they make women obedient.
    In fact even if Taliban don't promise anything, things they do to women will still be accepted by people I mentioned simply because they're against the US.
  • wukewuke Member Posts: 113
    By the way of course I view Mao more like just another tyrant than the great savior of our nation. Otherwise I won't bother post anywhere outside the wall.
    If I might add something to how Chinese view Muslims: most people don't know or admit what happened to Uyghurs, but among those who admit the camps exist, most agree they deserve it.
  • m7600m7600 Member Posts: 318
    wuke wrote: »
    By the way of course I view Mao more like just another tyrant than the great savior of our nation. Otherwise I won't bother post anywhere outside the wall.
    If I might add something to how Chinese view Muslims: most people don't know or admit what happened to Uyghurs, but among those who admit the camps exist, most agree they deserve it.

    I read somewhere that there's some tensions in China today because some workers want to start new trade unions. Also, it's not clear to me if workers can legally go on a strike. Can you shed some light on these topics?
  • wukewuke Member Posts: 113
    edited August 2021
    m7600 wrote: »
    I read somewhere that there's some tensions in China today because some workers want to start new trade unions. Also, it's not clear to me if workers can legally go on a strike. Can you shed some light on these topics?
    This kind of things are harder and harder to hear about in the last 10 years, I haven't paid attention to them recently so I don't know about the event you mentioned.

    There's a crime called "Picking quarrels and provoking trouble" here, which applies to doing anything the government doesn't like and don't want to bother finding a proper crime for you.

    I don't know if you've heard about Lu Yuyu and Li Tingyu, a couple dedicated themselves to collecting news about "mass incidents". I believe the man was put into jail like 5 yrs ago for again, "Picking quarrels and provoking trouble". When I heard about them their website was already down, but at least we know there're way more small incidents than we think, we just didn't know.

    Last time I heard about something similar to a strike, it was a bunch of left-wing students from Peking University offering aid to some workers in Shenzhen in 2018, then went missing for a long time, and reappeared "admitting their mistakes for being used by foreign forces", both ironical and creepy right?

    Strikes are not legal, of course. So are demonstrations and protests. In theory only after you get the permission can you organize such thing, but the last "protest" I can think of is in 2012 when many people went on a demonstration protesting Japan for "occupying Diaoyudao Islands".
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