Could have sworn I already posted this here, but I guess not.
About a week ago, Kansas entered its second wave. Our cases have been increasing fairly steadily for most of the outbreak, since we had been watching other states for weeks before it hit us. I have a family member that works in a local ER, and their cases of people with corona symptoms, and test send offs doubled in just a couple days.
America (or at least the loudest extreme minority of us) have essentially said "we're bored of this, whoever dies, dies, I need to get my hair done". I suppose this was inevitable.
We're still doing better than most of the other states. There's less than ten that have fewer cases than us. But When it hits the worse off states, its gonna be nasty.
Here in Italy, we started the Phase Two on May 4th and so far things are going "well", in the sense that we can leave our home wearing masks (even gloves if you take the bus/tram/subway), mainly if you really need to go physically at the office because you cannot work from home or for other serious reasons.
New cases decreased a lot.
Fingers crossed.
Good news:
In South Italy, the virus is almost gone for good (some regions did not even register new infections).
Bad news:
In my region (Lombardy), the situation is still bad - new infections keep going. They decreased a lot, but after the first huge drop, they do not stop.
I do not know how you guys feel.
I can speak just for myself, of course, but it's like something is broken. I cannot go outside and pretend that the situation is "normal" or "will get normal soon".
The quarantine changed us. Every single gesture or habit looks risky.
Social distancing is very important; I fully understand and respect any rules, but at the same time it's like it built a huge wall between you and anyone else.
While the quarantine is no longer in effect in Bulgaria, I'll be acting as if it IS till the vaccine is created and everyone uses it. This has changed everything, indeed, and I don't want to participate in the insanity when people go to restaurants and beaches as if the threat is over.
It takes between 5-10 yrs to find a vaccine/shot that will be save for everyone. I see many no-reload runs in your future if you're gonna wait that long.
Colorado has begun a phased reopening. Some counties are maintaining restrictions, even extending them in a few places, and watching the numbers. Looking okay so far, but the experts are reminding us that it's not over yet.
I'm encouraged by a local study showing ~85% of the public are wearing masks and maintaining proper social distance when out and about.
What has happened, for the United States as a whole, is that after well over a month of 30,000 cases/2000 deaths a day, we are now getting about 25,000/1500 deaths a day. Which has caused some parts of the country to throw the doors wide open. The guidelines set forth at the beginning of this to do so were 14 consecutive days of declining cases, on a state by state basis. Some of these states didn't even see any decline from day to day AT ALL, and were still climbing when the reopening commenced. And everything that is the result of reopening will be coming to light in late May/early June. The US has about 5% of the world's population, and 30% of it's deaths. In contrast, New Zealand (a country roughly the population of Minnesota) had ONE solitary new case today. They have had 21 deaths total. There are at least half a dozen countries (or more) who, despite the protestations of many, have, at this moment, essentially beaten the virus to the extent that is humanly possible. It took the willpower to do so. We don't have it.
More people have die from COVID-19 than from the Vietnam War, 9/11, Afghanistan War, and Iraq War COMBINED. And it's not like this is stopping. At this rate, with this "plan", you're looking at a quarter million dead minimum by late fall/winter. This is apparently completely acceptable to much of the country. At least until someone THEY know gets it and dies. Then their tune will change but quick.
Our response has been what my mother would have called "half-assed". We've responsed to the virus the way I deep clean my apartment, which is to say, I sorta straighten up for an hour or two and then go do something else.
I went to the store tonight for some grocery shopping. Maybe... 15% of the people there had masks on. This is in rural Virginia, and today was the first day of the first phase of reopening.
Last week, probably 50% of people had their mask on in the same store at the same time.
Just saying it's a reopening has apparently emboldened people to stop using their masks around here (Despite the fact that we appear to still be in an upward trajectory for cases. Over 500 in my city and counting).
It's definitely not near over, and when it is there will be yet another newer deadlier virus just around the corner. The world will have to adjust to a new social standard. Just as many metropolises have adopted restrictions on certain activities during periods of high air pollution, certain social activities will need to be curtailed from time to time. This is just how it's going to be for the foreseeable future. Is not so bad, though. Look at all the really cool quarantine videos that have come out. Keep cool, keep clean, keep creating. Do this and we'll be just fine.
The preparatory work done on vaccines for SARS is a major reason why some of the groups looking at a Covid-19 vaccine believe they can produce that in significantly less than the 12 months normally quoted as the bottom end of the expected timescale. One such group is based in Oxford, though their latest results from animal trials suggest their vaccine will not provide full protection against the disease.
"Under normal conditions, those types of studies … can take five to seven years. It's a very long process," Dr. Scott Halperin told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Please guys, don't get your hopes up too soon. There is no magic medicine for this virus.
Vaccine production guidelines are there for a reason, so we don't get sick from vaccines and for labs selling us snake oil. Five years at the very minimum and that's just testing. If the culture or batch they grow is tainted or fails they have to go back to square one.
'He said that due to the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, his team will carry out tests "in a more accelerated fashion, without sacrificing any safety," by not waiting for full results from one stage of their research before moving on to the next.'
This is a very dangerous course they are taking. Cutting corners with people's lives to say they are first is what is going on right now. Trump even said by the end of this year. Very, very dangerous.
Having worked on medicine design and antivirals for the flu I can tell you that it takes 15-20 years to get true medication on the market. For example, it took 3 years to get the first compounds selective enough in cellular expression before planning towards animal testing and that goes on stages (for most diseases these are mice and rats, but for the flu it is often actual guinea-pigs, later you get towards monkeys or similar morphology). Human testing (small scale toxicity, double blind and efficacy) was still years away from that and upscaling and production for distribution is an even 3 year extra if not more.
What is possible is that we get a vaccine that uses deactivated or clipped parts of the actual virus which can then be recognised by the immune system and fight against. This still takes a few years because you need to know if your snippet is selective enough and dies not resemble endogenous molecules in the body in order to prevent malicious auto-immune responses, and it needs to be generic to battle all virus strains that came about from mutation during the development of the vaccine. There is no definite timing attached to this but often years.
The reason why some governments resort within a year is because they test known fda approved medications for a new application such that you get immediately towards clinical trials with minor prework. However, these medications will not be selective shih initially so let's see what might come out of that... I am not that positive yet.
So yes, it will stay a while like this. Measures will stay but at some point even before vaccine or medication, relatively normal life can start again.
There are iirc, 3 different strains of covid 19 currently. Each will likely need it's own vaccine. Now over the months and years new strains will pop up, influenza is still out there mutating, needing vaccines researched and developed. It seems really scary, but it's not. Like I've said elsewhere.... Keep cool, keep clean, and keep creating. Do this and we'll be just fine.
"So yes, it will stay a while like this. Measures will stay but at some point even before vaccine or medication, relatively normal life can start again."
Well, not for us. My whole family is high risk, and my son likely wouldn't survive an infection.
This article refers to one way Covid-19 suppresses the immune response. Potentially this could offer a valuable treatment for those people severely affected by the disease.
There seem to have been a few good bits of news around recently. On testing, the UK has been ramping up capacity very rapidly, but there are still problems associated with the time taken to get results. A new test is being evaluated that could cut that to 20 minutes. On another aspect of testing, the UK will next week start rolling out an initial 10m tests to check for the presence of antibodies to the disease. Although the extent of immunity from those who've had it is not yet clear, even just knowing how many people in the population have been exposed to it will be very valuable in designing future mitigation measures.
As of today, the situation keeps improving in Italy, with a significant decrease in deaths and new infections, except for my region, Lombardy, where we are still fighting against the virus.
After almost three months closed in my house, I tried to go out. And I did. But it seems so strange! Many colleagues and friends of mine still prefer to stay home or have trouble going out - they feel unsafe and insecure. And I can feel them, really.
Plus, I get fatigued very easily - it's like my body is no more used to walk or move for a while!
As of today, the situation keeps improving in Italy, with a significant decrease in deaths and new infections, except for my region, Lombardy, where we are still fighting against the virus.
After almost three months closed in my house, I tried to go out. And I did. But it seems so strange! Many colleagues and friends of mine still prefer to stay home or have trouble going out - they feel unsafe and insecure. And I can feel them, really.
Plus, I get fatigued very easily - it's like my body is no more used to walk or move for a while!
Coraggio amico mio. Le cose andranno meglio con il tempo.
So a day after learning a co-worker tested positive, my cousin has also tested positive. He'll in all likelihood be fine. He's in his early-20s, and the only symptoms he has had were the loss of taste and smell, which are now coming back. The problem is, his niece is a 3-year old with a rare cancer undergoing treatment that compromises her immune system, and they were in the same place 8 days ago. That's all it takes really. One guy at work, and the repercussions just roll from there.
As of today, the situation keeps improving in Italy, with a significant decrease in deaths and new infections, except for my region, Lombardy, where we are still fighting against the virus.
After almost three months closed in my house, I tried to go out. And I did. But it seems so strange! Many colleagues and friends of mine still prefer to stay home or have trouble going out - they feel unsafe and insecure. And I can feel them, really.
Plus, I get fatigued very easily - it's like my body is no more used to walk or move for a while!
I know the feeling. Because I have cancer I was told to self isolate for three months (I'm in my ninth week now) and although I've tried to exercise a bit in my small flat I still feel very weak. I really miss the feel of the sun on my skin and fresh air in my face. Also I have to go into hospital on Thursday for more tests and even the thought of having to go outside is daunting (let alone the fact that I'll be going into a place full of people who are already unwell).
Comments
The first case of the virus is now confirmed to be 4 days earlier than we were first told about Wuhan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554
About a week ago, Kansas entered its second wave. Our cases have been increasing fairly steadily for most of the outbreak, since we had been watching other states for weeks before it hit us. I have a family member that works in a local ER, and their cases of people with corona symptoms, and test send offs doubled in just a couple days.
TR
We're still doing better than most of the other states. There's less than ten that have fewer cases than us. But When it hits the worse off states, its gonna be nasty.
New cases decreased a lot.
Fingers crossed.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds
In South Italy, the virus is almost gone for good (some regions did not even register new infections).
Bad news:
In my region (Lombardy), the situation is still bad - new infections keep going. They decreased a lot, but after the first huge drop, they do not stop.
I do not know how you guys feel.
I can speak just for myself, of course, but it's like something is broken. I cannot go outside and pretend that the situation is "normal" or "will get normal soon".
The quarantine changed us. Every single gesture or habit looks risky.
Social distancing is very important; I fully understand and respect any rules, but at the same time it's like it built a huge wall between you and anyone else.
I'm encouraged by a local study showing ~85% of the public are wearing masks and maintaining proper social distance when out and about.
More people have die from COVID-19 than from the Vietnam War, 9/11, Afghanistan War, and Iraq War COMBINED. And it's not like this is stopping. At this rate, with this "plan", you're looking at a quarter million dead minimum by late fall/winter. This is apparently completely acceptable to much of the country. At least until someone THEY know gets it and dies. Then their tune will change but quick.
Our response has been what my mother would have called "half-assed". We've responsed to the virus the way I deep clean my apartment, which is to say, I sorta straighten up for an hour or two and then go do something else.
Last week, probably 50% of people had their mask on in the same store at the same time.
Just saying it's a reopening has apparently emboldened people to stop using their masks around here (Despite the fact that we appear to still be in an upward trajectory for cases. Over 500 in my city and counting).
TR
TLDW: There Has never been a successful vaccine created for Coronavirus, SARS or MERS
TR
The preparatory work done on vaccines for SARS is a major reason why some of the groups looking at a Covid-19 vaccine believe they can produce that in significantly less than the 12 months normally quoted as the bottom end of the expected timescale. One such group is based in Oxford, though their latest results from animal trials suggest their vaccine will not provide full protection against the disease.
"Under normal conditions, those types of studies … can take five to seven years. It's a very long process," Dr. Scott Halperin told CTV News Channel on Sunday.
Please guys, don't get your hopes up too soon. There is no magic medicine for this virus.
Vaccine production guidelines are there for a reason, so we don't get sick from vaccines and for labs selling us snake oil. Five years at the very minimum and that's just testing. If the culture or batch they grow is tainted or fails they have to go back to square one.
'He said that due to the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, his team will carry out tests "in a more accelerated fashion, without sacrificing any safety," by not waiting for full results from one stage of their research before moving on to the next.'
This is a very dangerous course they are taking. Cutting corners with people's lives to say they are first is what is going on right now. Trump even said by the end of this year. Very, very dangerous.
What is possible is that we get a vaccine that uses deactivated or clipped parts of the actual virus which can then be recognised by the immune system and fight against. This still takes a few years because you need to know if your snippet is selective enough and dies not resemble endogenous molecules in the body in order to prevent malicious auto-immune responses, and it needs to be generic to battle all virus strains that came about from mutation during the development of the vaccine. There is no definite timing attached to this but often years.
The reason why some governments resort within a year is because they test known fda approved medications for a new application such that you get immediately towards clinical trials with minor prework. However, these medications will not be selective shih initially so let's see what might come out of that... I am not that positive yet.
So yes, it will stay a while like this. Measures will stay but at some point even before vaccine or medication, relatively normal life can start again.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32335560
https://www.virology.ws/2020/03/19/hydroxychloroquine-reduces-viral-load-and-symptoms-in-covid-19-patients/
Well, not for us. My whole family is high risk, and my son likely wouldn't survive an infection.
There seem to have been a few good bits of news around recently. On testing, the UK has been ramping up capacity very rapidly, but there are still problems associated with the time taken to get results. A new test is being evaluated that could cut that to 20 minutes. On another aspect of testing, the UK will next week start rolling out an initial 10m tests to check for the presence of antibodies to the disease. Although the extent of immunity from those who've had it is not yet clear, even just knowing how many people in the population have been exposed to it will be very valuable in designing future mitigation measures.
After almost three months closed in my house, I tried to go out. And I did. But it seems so strange! Many colleagues and friends of mine still prefer to stay home or have trouble going out - they feel unsafe and insecure. And I can feel them, really.
Plus, I get fatigued very easily - it's like my body is no more used to walk or move for a while!
Coraggio amico mio. Le cose andranno meglio con il tempo.
I know the feeling. Because I have cancer I was told to self isolate for three months (I'm in my ninth week now) and although I've tried to exercise a bit in my small flat I still feel very weak. I really miss the feel of the sun on my skin and fresh air in my face. Also I have to go into hospital on Thursday for more tests and even the thought of having to go outside is daunting (let alone the fact that I'll be going into a place full of people who are already unwell).