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COVID-19

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  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    ks1u7dygw1g4.pngStand Februrary 25th.

    Influenza and COVID-19 are not comparable with each other. Nor is the flu deadlier than this novel virus. At all. Full stop!

    We know how to battle the flu: there are vaccines available at your local family physician's clinic for the newest influenza strains each season and it can be easily treated at home. None of these hold true for this particular coronavirus. If you're doubting what I am saying then consult your local doctor of choice.
    JuliusBorisovThacoBellsmeagolheartProont
  • BallpointManBallpointMan Member Posts: 1,659
    chimaera wrote: »

    That's not how it works. The fatality rate is unevenly distributed depending on age, so depending on how old you are you might be even in the less than 1% mortality group. Second, flu is actually more dangerous, because flu mortality is dependent on the strain and it's only a matter of time before we get another highly virulent one like in the past.

    This is the part I keep coming back to - the death toll and fatality rate are scary, but the vast majority of deaths appear to be of 70+ year olds and those with significant health concerns and immuno-compromising conditions.

    That doesn’t mean it isn’t horrible, but it’s worth keeping in mind as it relates to each person.
    Balrog99Proont
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2020
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    edited February 2020
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  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    @chimaera You do realize that all of the points you're trying to make are even more so part of the dangers of COVID-19 as well, correct? None of them are by any means influenza-only characteristics.

    This virus comes from animal reservoirs. More precisely bush meat. As it was transmissible from animal to humans in the first place, the reverse is of course also reality. So we can tick that off our list.

    You also seem to selectively ignore the R0 radius of as high as 6.7. Have a read. It's worth it. It being as contagious as it is, the danger of COVID-19 to mutate is extremely high. We already know that currently available test kits have a high failure rate. It also doesn't help that the kits are as of now few in number. Meaning the majority of people aren't even be tested for this virus.

    Yes, COVID-19 has a higher mortality rate than the flu. Yes, COVID-19 has also a higher complication rate than the flu. Yes, COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu. Yes, we lack vaccines for COVID-19 very unlike the various flu strains. Yes, epidemiologists have warned about the very real dangers of COVID-19 since December of last year.

    You're welcome. Be sure to send my regards to your local doctors.
    jjstraka34Grond0ThacoBellProont
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2020
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    Grond0Proont
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    This article seemed quite balanced to me, setting out why it seems likely that COVID-19 will be endemic in future.

    Assuming it does become endemic, it will be difficult to establish how the real level of harm caused by COVID-19 compares with other diseases until vaccines and other prevention strategies are in place and symptomatic treatments are better established. In the meantime though, there's no argument that it is a threat so it seems reasonable just to wish everyone luck in avoiding it ;).
    [Deleted User]
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    Meanwhile, Germany has now officially recognised COVID-19 as an endemic epidemic and urges local officials to prepare for the incoming pandemic. I expect to see face masks becoming the newest fashion trend in about... now. I swear, the day just keeps getting better and better over here in Germany. :neutral:
  • JuliusBorisovJuliusBorisov Member, Administrator, Moderator, Developer Posts: 22,714
  • ZaxaresZaxares Member Posts: 1,325
    The danger is real (the video should be watched till the end):


    It's worth pointing out that that video is only a partial clip from the FULL video, which can be found here:

    Definitely watch the full video. It helps put things in perspective. The numbers on this video have also been fact-checked by Snopes and they say it checks out. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/coronavirus-graph-spreading-faster/
    KamigoroshiJuliusBorisovGrond0Proont
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,963
    As someone with two people in my family with compromised immune systems, I'm worried.
    ThacoBell
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    Grond0Mantis37ZaxaresProont
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,977
    edited February 2020
    So I know this info is old now, but its currently new to me, the virus itself can survive for 9 days on common surfaces. I'll probably look into comparising this to more common and less common virus.

    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200211/Coronavirus-can-live-on-common-surfaces-for-nine-days-how-to-kill-it.aspx


    Edit...

    More news, the very first case in japan, a Japanese woman recatches the virus after recovering from it...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8050519/Japanese-tour-bus-worker-recovered-coronavirus-tests-positive-AGAIN.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
    smeagolheartProont
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2020
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    MathsorcererProont
  • ZaxaresZaxares Member Posts: 1,325
    The most recent curveball thrown at us by COVID-19 is the case of the Japanese woman who caught the virus, recovered and was discharged, and two weeks later felt ill and reported to her doctor, whereupon it was discovered she had the disease again. So... That leaves two possibilities; the first is that the Japanese medical staff goofed the first time and discharged her when the virus was actually still in her system (personally I feel this is more likely. There are a lot of viruses that, once in your system, actually remain in your body for the rest of your life. Your immune system just kind of gets used to it, or keeps it under control), or COVID-19 is already starting to mutate, because once you've recovered from a disease, your own immune system should be able to prevent further re-infections of that same virus.

    If the first, more likely, scenario is true, then that means there could be quite a number of recovered patients who might actually be asymptomatic carriers that have been discharged from hospital, but are still carrying the virus. Obviously, don't blanket shun all recovered patients based on this (so far) singular case, but it is a worrying new piece of data. As of yet, there's only been this one reported case, but watch places like China (and now South Korea) closely to see if there happens to be a secondary wave of infections in areas previously thought clear.
    KamigoroshiThacoBellProont
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  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    edited February 2020
    @Zaxares Previously “cured“ patients can and will suffer from relapses when reintroduced to the virus. Others were, as you say, carriers of the virus who infected others with it. There are a lot of similar cases which have been documented during the last couple of days.

    And it's not just South Korea and China being hotspots of this epidemic. Thailand, Iran, Italy and other European countries are all places following suit. In fact, you can hardly even see Europe on the live tracking COVID-19 Map anymore.
    Post edited by Kamigoroshi on
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,963
    Some more about re-occurances of Coronavirus...

    'But some of the first cases of “reinfection” in China have been attributed to testing discrepancies.

    On Feb. 21, a discharged patient in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu was readmitted 10 days after being discharged when a follow-up test came back positive.

    Lei Xuezhong, the deputy director of the infectious diseases center at the West China Hospital, told People’s Daily that hospitals were testing nose and throat samples when deciding whether patients should be discharged, but new tests were finding the virus in the lower respiratory tract.

    Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia who has been closely following the outbreak, told Reuters that although the patient in Osaka could have relapsed, it is also possible that the virus was still being released into her system from the initial infection, and she wasn’t tested properly before she was discharged.'

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M124
    Proont
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,963
    Pet dog in Hong Kong found to have ‘low level’ of coronavirus

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pet-dog-found-to-have-low-level-of-coronavirus-2020-02-28
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,977
    More news came out well yesterday now.

    Key Missteps at the CDC Have Set Back Its Ability to Detect the Potential Spread of Coronavirus
    https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
    smeagolheartProont
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,963
    Faux News has a guy come on to downplay the viruses dangers who was just released from quarantine and is now back in Pennsylvania.

    The kicker? He's coughing the entire time. With his young daughter on his lap. Sharing a water bottle with her.

    The real kicker? His wife is still in quarantine in China and her father died from the virus.

    The real, real kicker? He had to start a go fund me to pay his families medical bill.

    The real, real, real kicker? There's also news of people being symptomatic after a negative oral swab due to the test's inaccuracies.

    What a crazy post truth world.

    Edit: clip in question:
    KamigoroshiThacoBellProont
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    Proont
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    Makes one really appreciate the fact that Germany's National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV) in accordance to the Robert Koch-Institution (RKI) as of yesterday have updated their testing criterias for SARS-COV-2.

    The linked article is of course in German. In a nutshell: doctors can now test patients they suspect of COVID-19 independently whenever they had a prior travel history to a hotspot or not. The costs involving such initiative test kit diagnostics and the following treatment will be fully paid by the health insurances.

    I've heard that over in the USA getting tested for COVID-19 costs $3,500? How does such a model even work now when confronted with a pandemic?
    Grond0BallpointManProontsmeagolheart
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,977
    Coronavirus confirmed in newyork and florida into a state of emergency.

    "Coronavirus cases 'will surge in their thousands by NEXT WEEK' and three 'critical' weeks were lost in containing the spread because CDC tests failed"
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8065613/New-York-doctor-warns-coronavirus-cases-surge-thousands-week.htm
    There has been other news but I have to posted it as things seemed to stabilize.
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    It's really frustrating to see your own country's Federal Minister of Health saying stuff like: "You don't need masks, nor gloves, or even desinfection products in your household. Water and soap is enough to neutralize the virus."

    Riiiight. These are exactly lines for when the gourverment and the populace are in need of the same kind of items. They didn't source supplies beforehand and now are looking for the scraps due to the worldwide shortage.

    Not to mentioning they are still weeks behind. What with 14 days quarantine (too short) and is contagious via droplets (forgetting that it's also transmissible via aerosols). In other news, the virus was found inside the stool of COVID-19 patients. Remember how some time ago folks over at Hong Kong were baffled how it could travel through an appartment's water pipes? Guess we finally got the answer to the riddle.
    ThacoBellProont
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,870
    2019 novel coronavirus is undergoing active recombination

    Genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Coronavirus Disease 2019 patients
    Conclusion
    SARS-CoV-2 evolves in vivo after infection, which may affect its virulence, infectivity, and transmissibility. Although how the intra-host variant spreads in the population is still elusive, it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance of the viral evolution in the population and associated clinical changes.

    Both papers published by the Oxford University Press give better insight of SARS-CoV-2's mutation history thus far.
    Grond0
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    DragonKing wrote: »

    That's a bit misleading. The 3.4% refers to the ratio between reported cases and reported deaths. As Covid-19 may produce mild, or no, symptoms, there are certainly more cases in the population than are reported in all countries. In many countries the reported figure clearly also does not represent reality due to political suppression of results and failure to widely test in the population.

    The death rate as normally thought of would be the chance of mortality following infection. That's probably more like 1% , though that will potentially vary a lot depending on the quality of health care available. In addition, as @Kamigoroshi has posted above, the speculation earlier that the virus was likely to mutate has been confirmed. This report refers to two strains circulating in China, one of which is significantly more virulent than the other.
  • AmmarAmmar Member Posts: 1,295
    Grond0 wrote: »
    DragonKing wrote: »

    That's a bit misleading. The 3.4% refers to the ratio between reported cases and reported deaths. As Covid-19 may produce mild, or no, symptoms, there are certainly more cases in the population than are reported in all countries. In many countries the reported figure clearly also does not represent reality due to political suppression of results and failure to widely test in the population.

    The death rate as normally thought of would be the chance of mortality following infection. That's probably more like 1% , though that will potentially vary a lot depending on the quality of health care available. In addition, as @Kamigoroshi has posted above, the speculation earlier that the virus was likely to mutate has been confirmed. This report refers to two strains circulating in China, one of which is significantly more virulent than the other.

    True, but this is mostly more of a misunderstanding. The mortality rate for other diseases is almost always deaths/reported as well. That is not an issue only with infectious diseases but also with certain kinds of cancer, e.g. prostate cancer, where this makes it difficult to compare survival rates between countries.
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