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  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited June 2020
    Fandraxx wrote: »


    Now listen, I'm not saying this isn't the type of working that one should use in this climate. I'm just saying this isn't the type of wording you should use in this climate.

    This is how you create craziness. This is how you make people think their liberty is under attack.

    Wearing a mask and following guidelines is important and anyone with half a brain can see that, but this does zero to convince the people that don't want to/aren't that they should.

    We don't have the time for leaders to play psychiatrist to willfully ignorant morons. If they aren't told, they won't wear one. When it was suggested nicely, they wouldn't wear one. Then we finally get to the demand phase, and all of a sudden it's the tactics of those asking that's the problem. What was the problem when it WASN'T being mandated?? What would convince them, a lifetime supply of chocolate cakes?? These people believe wearing a mask negatively effects your oxygen levels to the point of that they are killing more people than the virus. This is actually a belief that is widespread among the populace in the US, despite being 100% false and not based on anything whatsoever. I've heard the argument that God made us as we are, and he didn't intend for us to breath with a mask on.

    The craziness was not created. It was there. Takes like this are making excuses for it. Their paranoid delusions would be amplified by ANYTHING they were told, so we might as well just dispense with playing patty-cake with their feelings. We have more pressing concerns than holding their hands and whispering sweet nothings to them. It wouldn't make a difference. Their entire identity in this moment is wrapped up in not wearing a mask as a political statement. It's the same shit we saw when people were asked to not smoke in bars. Childish tantrums from people who think it is their god-given right to put other people's health at risk because they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves. Screw it. Like with children (who these folks have less emotional maturity than), eventually you have to say, "take your ass to your room, and your electronic devices are off-limits for a week." And yeah, most of them still won't. So what else is new?? At least SOME might be scared into action based on possible punitive punishment (though such punishment at this point is really nothing more than getting kicked out of a store or being shamed).
    ZaxaresThacoBellProontsmeagolheart
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 193
    You can say that leaders don't have time to play psychiatrists and you're probably right. But, the reality stands that if they want these masks to actually have an effect, then they're going to have to do some convincing. Yelling at people and attempting to mandate them hasn't worked, so, obviously, some different course of action needs to be taken.

    My take was just fine, thank you. I'm not making excuses for anyone stupid enough to try and weasel out of wearing a mask, I was simply making an observation of a man who has supposedly done a pretty good mitigating the pandemic in his state. It was more an assessment about how certain statements can unintentionally bring more harm than good. I'm sure the post was made in earnest, but "compliance" is not really a word that makes people want to abide by rules. Just figured I'd post some musings and try to make a joke about the situation as a whole, cause it has blown up on twitter to some extent.
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited June 2020
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    You can say that leaders don't have time to play psychiatrists and you're probably right. But, the reality stands that if they want these masks to actually have an effect, then they're going to have to do some convincing. Yelling at people and attempting to mandate them hasn't worked, so, obviously, some different course of action needs to be taken.

    My take was just fine, thank you. I'm not making excuses for anyone stupid enough to try and weasel out of wearing a mask, I was simply making an observation of a man who has supposedly done a pretty good mitigating the pandemic in his state. It was more an assessment about how certain statements can unintentionally bring more harm than good. I'm sure the post was made in earnest, but "compliance" is not really a word that makes people want to abide by rules. Just figured I'd post some musings and try to make a joke about the situation as a whole, cause it has blown up on twitter to some extent.

    And my point is that responsible leaders have been begging and pleading for people to wear masks without resorting to "compliance" language for most of the last 3 months. We've reached a point now where we don't have a choice. The spread is now totally out of control. Every other option is now off the table unless we do a complete shutdown again. I simply don't believe any amount of flattery OR heavy-handed demands are going to move the needle one way or another on these people.

    We see daily incidents of people being confronted for WEARING masks by people who aren't. The sole reason for this is because they don't want to feel guilty for not wearing one (as in, they want to be free of the consequences of their actions in totality, even mentally). So the only response is to lash out at the people who are doing nothing but being courteous to their fellow human beings. Why?? Because if wearing a mask is seen as responsible, then you, but virtue of not wearing one, are NOT responsible. And while you can put on a public face to the contrary, these people KNOW deep down they're wrong and are not going along for selfish reasons. Rather than confront that reality, they choose to act out instead.
    Balrog99ThacoBellProontZaxares
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 193
    edited July 2022
    Removed.
    Post edited by Fandraxx on
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »

    And my point is that responsible leaders have been begging and pleading for people to wear masks without resorting to "compliance" language for most of the last 3 months. We've reached a point now where we don't have a choice. The spread is now totally out of control. Every other option is now off the table unless we do a complete shutdown again. I simply don't believe any amount of flattery OR heavy-handed demands are going to move the needle one way or another on these people.

    See, unfortunately, I would have to opine that such a statement is essentially untrue. The only states that have pushed/required for masks, that I can find, for such a length of time are a group in the tri-state area and Hawaii. Dr. Fauci admitted in a statement that he lied about the efficacy of masks earlier in the stages of the pandemic in an attempt to preserve them for healthcare workers. A noble and wholly understandable effort, sure, but a course of action that has no doubt been damaging (People still quote this original advice). Has the advice changed? Surely and rightfully so. Has the opinion of the people who heard the original advice changed? Well, stupidly, no.

    This is part of why I say craziness was created. Yes, some people are just stupid. I'm not going to argue for some peoples decidedly lacking intelligence (Probably like a 4 or 5, so if we play on 5e that's a minus -4, seems about right imo). But the reality of the countries entire response is that it has been sporadic, at best. No one's really solely responsible for such a poor response; some of it's federal, some of it's state, some of it's just the fact that we don't know all that much about this damn thing. This craziness was created.

    The CDC advice changed on 3 April to say that everyone should wear a mask when leaving the house, so that has been the position for (virtually) 3 months. It does seem unlikely that many of those still quoting the previous advice and ignoring the reasons the advice was changed will change their minds now based on reasoned argument. In that context it does seem possible that the most effective way of getting out the message is a very blunt one. While I can see that is likely to annoy some people, it has the virtue of making it more difficult to decide to ignore more nuanced advice that allows for exceptions to the general rule.

    There has been a broadly similar evolution of advice in the UK, but the message here remains more confusing than in the US. Masks are only mandatory in a few situations (particularly when using public transport and visiting hospitals) and that change was only introduced a couple of weeks ago. It's very rare to see someone in a mask outdoors and even in more dangerous situations, like shops, only a small minority wear them. While the late adoption of social distancing seems likely to be the largest factor behind the UK being one of the worst affected countries in the world, the failure to wear masks will also be a contributory factor. That also helps explain why the UK has not seen disease levels fall as fast as in most other European countries.
    ThacoBell
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 193
    Grond0 wrote: »
    There has been a broadly similar evolution of advice in the UK, but the message here remains more confusing than in the US. Masks are only mandatory in a few situations (particularly when using public transport and visiting hospitals) and that change was only introduced a couple of weeks ago. It's very rare to see someone in a mask outdoors and even in more dangerous situations, like shops, only a small minority wear them. While the late adoption of social distancing seems likely to be the largest factor behind the UK being one of the worst affected countries in the world, the failure to wear masks will also be a contributory factor. That also helps explain why the UK has not seen disease levels fall as fast as in most other European countries.

    While the guidelines from the CDC are certainly there, I'm willing to bet that a majority of people were/are paying more attention to their governors that have been plastered to their screens non-stop since this all occurred than scouring the CDC guidelines. The governors didn't implement those guidelines at the time (some still haven't, amazingly), so they didn't get followed. It's a strange paradox that the CDC is the forefront of the information for these types of crisis and yet nothing they say can be enforced by they themselves. Remember when the CDC had re-opening guidelines that literally every state that re-opened decided to completely ignore? Pepperridge farms remembers.

    I do find that a bit curious. I figured countries were largely copying each other in terms of prevention and whatnot, especially when certain things are shown to work. Sweden didn't (and STILL hasn't) implement masks, either, and they basically had to admit that their plan was a complete failure.

    Any reason that it isn't enforced/encouraged, or is the government just expecting people to take it upon themselves?

  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    edited June 2020
    In the early stages of the pandemic there were the same sorts of concerns as in the US about people buying PPE that was needed more for medical use. The failure to appreciate the need for PPE outside hospitals has not just affected the general public. The shortage of medical-grade PPE and the failure to enforce the use of alternatives in care homes has resulted in far more deaths there than need have occurred.

    I think the evidence base has also shifted somewhat, i.e. the effectiveness of simple masks is now seen as greater than a few months ago. Initially the arguments gave too much weight to the inability of masks to stop very small droplets - which travel the greatest distance. However, I think it's now been concluded that the larger droplets are far more likely to contain enough virus to result in infection and stopping those means simple masks are more effective at curtailing spread than previously believed.

    There were also concerns that people will not handle masks safely and end up infecting themselves as a result. Those concerns still exist, but I think it's now recognized that this represents an issue about how great the benefits from mask-wearing are, rather than potentially changing a benefit into a detriment.

    The US is a more overtly political country than the UK, but I think there are similar underlying attitudes here to individual rights. There's always a balancing act between the rights of one individual and those of the wider community affected by their actions, but the balance in the UK is further towards respecting individual rights than in most European countries (let alone Asian ones). That's part of the reason that the UK was slow to introduce a lock down. In fact though, politicians and scientists have been a bit surprised at how high the level of compliance was with the lock down. I suspect that if the use of simple masks had been mandated early on (and particularly if those had been supplied free by shops, workplaces, transport providers etc), the level of compliance with mask wearing would also have been higher than expected. With everyone being a bit tired with restrictions by this time, it may be harder to change the culture around masks now, but this epidemic is still far from finished (and who knows how long before we get another). In that context putting effort into getting mask use seen as an effective tool to battle the virus (and definitely not as a political statement) is still very worthwhile.
    JuliusBorisovThacoBellFandraxxsmeagolheart
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited June 2020
    What individual rights are being infringed upon by asking for mask use?? As far as I can tell, even the "directives" coming from Governors are really just strongly worded suggestions. It's basically up to businesses to actually police it themselves. And if a business says "wear a mask or get out of here" to a patron, I fail to see how that is even marginally different than the "no shirt, no shoes, no service" signs that are commonplace at every convenience store across the country that no one even blinks an eye at. It's not a real infringement on anything. It's a perceived one. It's slightly more inconvenient than putting a sock on your foot.

    If it was a genuinely held belief about their "liberty", the same people would have been removing their clothing and footwear in protest for decades every time they saw one of those aforementioned signs. But no one does that. So the only conclusion to draw is that something else is driving it. And the main factor is support of a politician whose name rhymes with Ronald Drump.
    Balrog99ThacoBellProont
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 193
    Grond0 wrote: »
    In fact though, politicians and scientists have been a bit surprised at how high the level of compliance was with the lock down. I suspect that if the use of simple masks had been mandated early on (and particularly if those had been supplied free by shops, workplaces, transport providers etc), the level of compliance with mask wearing would also have been higher than expected. With everyone being a bit tired with restrictions by this time, it may be harder to change the culture around masks now, but this epidemic is still far from finished (and who knows how long before we get another). In that context putting effort into getting mask use seen as an effective tool to battle the virus (and definitely not as a political statement) is still very worthwhile.

    There was an interview with Bill Gates on CNN a few days ago where he talked about the fact that lockdowns were largely accepted. He was referencing the US, but it would seem that the same is true for other places, as well. Also said that he doesn't see many people being okay with locking down again if need be. Have to wonder what happens/what the cooperation will be like if it's deemed that certain states/places need to lockdown once again.

  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,481
    edited June 2020
    @Fandraxx said
    Have to wonder what happens/what the cooperation will be like if it's deemed that certain states/places need to lockdown once again.

    In the UK we're about to find out. The city of Leicester (and some surrounding areas) has today gone back into lockdown due to a recent spike in infections which saw the area being responsible for 10% of the total of new infections in England (not the whole UK).

    TR
    Grond0Balrog99Fandraxx
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    107 cases of Covid in Michigan have been linked to a single bar in East Lansing (Michigan State University college town). One negligent business can account for around 10% of an entire state's new case total. What is wrong with some people???

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/06/30/officials-report-107-covid-19-cases-at-east-lansing-bar-as-ingham-county-reduces-restaurant-capacity/?outputType=amp
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 193
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    107 cases of Covid in Michigan have been linked to a single bar in East Lansing (Michigan State University college town). One negligent business can account for around 10% of an entire state's new case total. What is wrong with some people???

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/06/30/officials-report-107-covid-19-cases-at-east-lansing-bar-as-ingham-county-reduces-restaurant-capacity/?outputType=amp

    I don't really understand the desire to be inside to eat/drink. Like, personally, I love eating outdoors during the summer, anyways. I understand the idea that it can bring some much-needed business back to some places, but, at least in my area, plenty of places seem to be doing just fine with their outdoor space. I've seen some people go and eat indoors but it's just not for me right now.
    Balrog99
  • dunbardunbar Member Posts: 1,603
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    107 cases of Covid in Michigan have been linked to a single bar in East Lansing (Michigan State University college town). One negligent business can account for around 10% of an entire state's new case total. What is wrong with some people???

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/06/30/officials-report-107-covid-19-cases-at-east-lansing-bar-as-ingham-county-reduces-restaurant-capacity/?outputType=amp

    I don't really understand the desire to be inside to eat/drink. Like, personally, I love eating outdoors during the summer, anyways. I understand the idea that it can bring some much-needed business back to some places, but, at least in my area, plenty of places seem to be doing just fine with their outdoor space. I've seen some people go and eat indoors but it's just not for me right now.

    Unfortunately if you live in the UK eating outdoors is like owning an open top sports car - wonderful for a handful of days a year and a pain in the backside the rest of the time. Which is why the potential re-opening of pubs here is so problematic, because when we say we're "going out" we actually mean that we're briefly going outside in order to be inside at a different place.
    Balrog99Proontsmeagolheart
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,963
    edited July 2020
    The states of Texas and Florida (Republican run) are massively under-reporting COVID-19.

    According to the CDC, for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia.

    The historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168. So not only are the reported deaths the worst in the world but there are massive amounts of cases that are untested and unreported and swept under the rug.

    Ebjl1ZUWsAITL22?format=jpg&name=small
    DinoDinProont
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited July 2020
    The states of Texas and Florida (Republican run) are massively under-reporting COVID-19.

    According to the CDC, for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia.

    The historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168. So not only are the reported deaths the worst in the world but there are massive amounts of cases that are untested and unreported and swept under the rug.

    Ebjl1ZUWsAITL22?format=jpg&name=small

    To paraphrase, unless there has been five-fold increase in pneumonia deaths for no discernable reason (and if that's the case, that would also be cause for massive concern), then Abbott and DeSantis are juicing the numbers. Which is heinously evil.

    There is a cottage industry of "argument" around COVID-19 that says "you can't prove someone actually died of COVID-19 if they have underlying conditions or get pneumonia". Actually, yes, you can directly relate it to that. Because almost all those people were managing just fine before this showed up. By this logic, absolutely NO ONE has ever died because of AIDS. Which is insane.

    If anything, the numbers from day one have been heavily, heavily underrepresented. But they are what we have to go on. I'm not gonna sit here and insist they are double or triple because we don't know. But there is a subset of Americans (nearly all of whom were heavily invested in the "hoax" and "just the flu" narrative in March) who will pull literally any caveat out of their ass to excuse how dead wrong they were. They insist even these bare minimum totals are fake.
    DinoDinBalrog99ProontThacoBell
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    Anybody else thinking about 'Masque of the Red Death' when contemplating the Republican convention in Jacksonville, Florida? Just my mind wandering and wondering...
    Proont
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    Good Lord, there is no original thought in the days of the internet. I was Ninja'd months ago!

    https://www.thenewsherald.com/opinion/trump-congers-image-of-edgar-allen-poe-character/article_8b872f68-7fee-11ea-8857-dbdf0cd70153.html
    Proont
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    The states of Texas and Florida (Republican run) are massively under-reporting COVID-19.

    According to the CDC, for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia.

    The historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168. So not only are the reported deaths the worst in the world but there are massive amounts of cases that are untested and unreported and swept under the rug.

    Ebjl1ZUWsAITL22?format=jpg&name=small

    I was immediately suspicious of this data as:
    - it's so inconsistent with the national picture for the US that I posted about before
    - the comparison showing the excess pneumonia deaths over and above Covid-19 deaths is not a meaningful one (in principle all excess pneumonia deaths could be attributable to Covid-19) suggesting that the original compiler of the numbers is not comfortable using statistics.

    I had a look at the original CDC data source and did a comparison of weekly recorded deaths for pneumonia & influenza over a 5 year period from March up to date. That suggests that these deaths are 19% higher than expected over that period in Texas and 18% in Florida (which is consistent with the national picture).
    b9nx5potckla.jpgegl5n49ny4ee.jpg

    I imagine that what's happened is a result of choosing a 20 year period to calculate excess deaths and applying that just to a sub-set of the data. There will certainly have been changes in definitions over that time and my guess is that for a lot of those 20 years the comparator would show zero deaths - thus greatly inflating the figure for apparent excess deaths in 2020.
    Balrog99Proontdunbar
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    Grond0 wrote: »
    The states of Texas and Florida (Republican run) are massively under-reporting COVID-19.

    According to the CDC, for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia.

    The historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168. So not only are the reported deaths the worst in the world but there are massive amounts of cases that are untested and unreported and swept under the rug.

    Ebjl1ZUWsAITL22?format=jpg&name=small

    I was immediately suspicious of this data as:
    - it's so inconsistent with the national picture for the US that I posted about before
    - the comparison showing the excess pneumonia deaths over and above Covid-19 deaths is not a meaningful one (in principle all excess pneumonia deaths could be attributable to Covid-19) suggesting that the original compiler of the numbers is not comfortable using statistics.

    I had a look at the original CDC data source and did a comparison of weekly recorded deaths for pneumonia & influenza over a 5 year period from March up to date. That suggests that these deaths are 19% higher than expected over that period in Texas and 18% in Florida (which is consistent with the national picture).
    b9nx5potckla.jpgegl5n49ny4ee.jpg

    I imagine that what's happened is a result of choosing a 20 year period to calculate excess deaths and applying that just to a sub-set of the data. There will certainly have been changes in definitions over that time and my guess is that for a lot of those 20 years the comparator would show zero deaths - thus greatly inflating the figure for apparent excess deaths in 2020.

    This is exactly why I said months ago that the main indicator of Covid-19 deaths will be how many more deaths per capita more in 2020 that there is over the average of the last 10-20 years. Whether or not these people died specifically of Covid-19 is irrelevant, the deaths will be attributable to Covid even if they're suicides or other consequences of the shutdowns/stay-at-home orders due to the virus.
    Grond0smeagolheartdeltago
  • dunbardunbar Member Posts: 1,603
    edited July 2020
    Grond0 wrote: »
    The states of Texas and Florida (Republican run) are massively under-reporting COVID-19.

    According to the CDC, for Feb-May 30th, Texas had 1,420 deaths from #COVID and 5,344 from pneumonia.

    The historical average pneumonia deaths in Texas over the same period from 1999-2018 was ONLY 1168. So not only are the reported deaths the worst in the world but there are massive amounts of cases that are untested and unreported and swept under the rug.

    Ebjl1ZUWsAITL22?format=jpg&name=small

    I was immediately suspicious of this data as:
    - it's so inconsistent with the national picture for the US that I posted about before
    - the comparison showing the excess pneumonia deaths over and above Covid-19 deaths is not a meaningful one (in principle all excess pneumonia deaths could be attributable to Covid-19) suggesting that the original compiler of the numbers is not comfortable using statistics.

    I had a look at the original CDC data source and did a comparison of weekly recorded deaths for pneumonia & influenza over a 5 year period from March up to date. That suggests that these deaths are 19% higher than expected over that period in Texas and 18% in Florida (which is consistent with the national picture).
    b9nx5potckla.jpgegl5n49ny4ee.jpg

    I imagine that what's happened is a result of choosing a 20 year period to calculate excess deaths and applying that just to a sub-set of the data. There will certainly have been changes in definitions over that time and my guess is that for a lot of those 20 years the comparator would show zero deaths - thus greatly inflating the figure for apparent excess deaths in 2020.

    People say "numbers don't lie" in much the same way that we used to say "the camera doesn't lie", and therein lies the problem: Statistics are basically just Photoshop for numbers.
    Proont
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    Yale University have just released a report on excess deaths. As with the BBC study I reported, it looks at all-cause mortality in order to avoid distortions associated with defining particular causes. The particular adjustments used to arrive at expected deaths (taking account of things like influenza epidemics and reporting delays) have an element of subjectivity in them and the time span covered is different. However, the overall results are consistent with the BBC study.
    - total actual deaths in period March-May 2020, 781k
    - expected deaths, 659k (so excess deaths = 122k)
    - Covid-19 reported deaths, 95k

    The increase in deaths across the US is thus 27k more than accounted for directly by Covid-19, so it seems likely that Covid-19 is directly or indirectly responsible for more deaths than have been attributed to it. The indirect effects are likely to include positive ones (for instance reduction in traffic accidents) as well as negative ones (for instance pressure on health systems or people unwilling to seek healthcare for other conditions as a result of Covid-19).

    The data are broken down in the detailed report in various ways. Florida accounts for 1k of the overall 27k and Texas 2k.
    Balrog99Proont
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    I'm curious what the raw odds are for dying from covid when leaving the home in the US. If I had any talent at math, I'd try to figure it out.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    I'm curious what the raw odds are for dying from covid when leaving the home in the US. If I had any talent at math, I'd try to figure it out.

    Too many variables.
    ThacoBell
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    Many countries aren't accepting anyone from the US right now, and with good reason. I wonder if many Americans know that pretty soon they may not be allowed to leave their own country.
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    I'm curious what the raw odds are for dying from covid when leaving the home in the US. If I had any talent at math, I'd try to figure it out.

    Too many variables.

    Even something as simple as deaths per day vs population might be interesting.
    Balrog99
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    I'm curious what the raw odds are for dying from covid when leaving the home in the US. If I had any talent at math, I'd try to figure it out.

    Too many variables.

    Even something as simple as deaths per day vs population might be interesting.

    Might be a few years before we can get an unbiased number though. Politics has muddled it's way into the statistics...
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,366
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Many countries aren't accepting anyone from the US right now, and with good reason. I wonder if many Americans know that pretty soon they may not be allowed to leave their own country.

    Hah, our entire country just got a stay at home order!
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,305
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    I'm curious what the raw odds are for dying from covid when leaving the home in the US. If I had any talent at math, I'd try to figure it out.

    Too many variables.

    Even something as simple as deaths per day vs population might be interesting.

    The US has had about 396 deaths per 1m population to date. If we count the pandemic as over 120 days so far, that would give a daily rate of just over 3 per 1m. I think that's of pretty limited help to an individual though. The chance of death for an elderly and infirm person will be many hundreds of times greater than that of a fit child (though the latter might pass on an infection to others more vulnerable). Your chance of being infected will also be enormously influenced by your behavior. If you only go out of your house in the open air, wear a mask, socially distance, don't touch your face and wash your hands when you get home, your chance of infection from doing that will be minuscule. If you go to a crowded indoor environment such as a church or bar and don't wear a mask, your chance of infection could be quite high - though again there are huge differences in prevalence in different areas.
    ThacoBell
  • deltagodeltago Member Posts: 7,811
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Many countries aren't accepting anyone from the US right now, and with good reason. I wonder if many Americans know that pretty soon they may not be allowed to leave their own country.

    Truthfully, regardless of where you live, you shouldn’t be leaving your city let alone the country at this point.

    It’s only been about a month most of us were even allowed to venture out our front doors.

    ~

    Canada Day was yesterday and the cops shooed people out of my local park/beach because it was too crowded.

    https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/mobile/police-called-in-to-shut-down-canada-day-celebrations-at-mooney-s-bay-1.5007671

    Nothing was actually planned there, just everyone had the exact same idea to enjoy the beach instead of risking the potential crowds downtown.

    Living in the capital, I was curious about what downtown would look like this year but I was too lazy to venture out. Downtown is usually packed, like shoulder to shoulder shuffling towards the buses after the fireworks most years but it looks like it was very tame besides a group of protesters.

    https://ottawasun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-pandemic-unmasks-anger-on-parliament-hill-picnickers-elsewhere/wcm/9a2697fa-fc7e-4e9a-b232-6637f87e5a03/amp

    Kinda sad. Knowing people in the hospitality business this year must is extremely tough on them as tourism is now non existent.
    ThacoBell
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