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Spell learning chance is broken

After being frustrated with a chain of spell learning failures I decided to check if anyone else on the forum didn't trust the percentages the game tells us.

I found a few topics, mostly from 2012/2013 with people complaining that the sample sizes were too small. So I did what every bored (and slightly frustrated) programmer would do - I wrote a program to automatically learn scrolls, check if it was successful and if so, erase them from the spellbook.

I've just finished a run of 50.000 attempts and the results are quite far apart from what the game tells me it should be.

Difficulty: Core rules
Intelligence: 19 (95% chance theoretically)
Character level: 10
Spell: Magic Missile, level 1
Attempts: 50.000
Successful: 40.443

In practice an intelligence of 19 gives us an ~80% chance instead of the 95% chance we should be getting.



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