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COVID-19

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  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    Ok remember this topic is meant to be specifically about the virus itself, not politics. Let's try not to keep it in that direction.

    BallpointManAedan
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,962
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    My private music conservatory is shutting down for at least three weeks. All lesson payments for those weeks are being refunded by the conservatory, and being deducted from my pay.

    This is a bad financial hit for me. People who are paid per service, which is a lot of people besides music instructors (drivers for hire, for example), will suffer quite a bit financially.

    I'll probably be okay since I have savings to dip into, but my retirement prospects are looking bleak.

    I feel really bad for other people who are in the same type of employment as I am, who don't have any savings.

    If I was living paycheck to paycheck as so many are, I'd be in a financial panic right now.

    We still have no earthly conception on how many levels this is going to alter things. Before the end of the month, almost the entire US economy is going to have to grind to a halt for 3 to 4 weeks.

    It's not going to change anytime soon either. There will always be risks of new outbreaks until there's a vaccine. As of today no one should ever embrace or shake hands with another person ever again.

    I had planned to have a birthday party for my kid at a local trampoline park and bought a prepaid card for the event that I refunded yesterday. Why get a refund? The more I thought about it I don't want my kids running, gasping, and being sweat on and being coughed on right now.

    The guy say 'you know this can be used later, like in 3 years?' I got my refund. He might be out of business in three years and three years from now (unless things change which is not guaranteed) the potential for this virus to spread will still be there. I hope they find a vaccine but it's not guaranteed.

    ThacoBell
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    The government is telling it's people to go and do the literal thing it's telling everyone else not to do it seems.

    MathsorcererProont
  • MathsorcererMathsorcerer Member Posts: 3,009
    My side job is at a grocery store; on Thursday I ran out of milk, except for specialty items like buttermilk. The other store we visited last night was out of eggs, sugar, pasta, and most produce--there were pears and magoes, but not much else aside from celery and asparagus. People are freaking out far beyond what is reasonable.

    Balrog99Proont
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    My side job is at a grocery store; on Thursday I ran out of milk, except for specialty items like buttermilk. The other store we visited last night was out of eggs, sugar, pasta, and most produce--there were pears and magoes, but not much else aside from celery and asparagus. People are freaking out far beyond what is reasonable.
    @Mathsorcerer a lot of them aren't freaking out, they are trying to scalp others. There have been articles on people selling 5 dollar hand sanitizer for 20, or 99 cent toilet paper for 10 dollars.

    A lot of people are delibertly going out to try and take advantage of this pandemic.

    MathsorcererProontsmeagolheartThacoBell
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    I mean, this is also currently happening...

  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    My side job is at a grocery store; on Thursday I ran out of milk, except for specialty items like buttermilk. The other store we visited last night was out of eggs, sugar, pasta, and most produce--there were pears and magoes, but not much else aside from celery and asparagus. People are freaking out far beyond what is reasonable.

    The Krogers by my house was out of milk, eggs, toilet paper, bottled water, fresh beef (including steak which is really expensive!), pork chops and pork roast, fresh chicken, potatoes, onions, canned soup (except the 'cream of's'), paper towels, hand sanitizer, hand soap, mac & cheese, pasta, sugar, flour and sanitary wipes (including baby wipes). Good thing I didn't need much...

    MathsorcererBelgarathMTH
  • MathsorcererMathsorcerer Member Posts: 3,009
    edited March 2020
    If I were inclined to be so underhanded towards others, I would set aside supplies from my backstock carts, put out the rest, buy the supplies I set aside, then sell them at a significant markup. I don't hoard or price-gouge, though, because I am not a jackass.

    The guys running the meat counter at my store were scanning out steaks and chuck, frinding it, and repackaging it as ground meat because they were out.

    Balrog99Proont
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    edited March 2020
  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,066
    It may have been written about nuclear armageddon but these lyrics written by Michael Moorcock in the 1970's would seem apt for the mindset of those who are actually panic buying -
    And we're bound to pause and wonder if all is what it seems
    But there ain't no point in leavin'
    For there's nowhere left to go
    Just smile and make it tender
    Make it kind and make it slow

    Rolling, we're rolling in the ruins
    Rolling, we're rolling in the ruins
    Rolling, we're rolling in the ruins
    And we know we're bound to go

    From the track "Dude’s Dream (rolling in the ruins)"
    off the album "The New World's Fair"
    by Michael Moorcock and the Deep Fix (1975)

    TR

    Proont
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    Ha! A wedding ceremony has yesterday been disbanded by the local police. Reason? There were too many people at once! Now that's a story worth telling their children and their children's children in years to come.

  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,962
    edited March 2020
    Ha! A wedding ceremony has yesterday been disbanded by the local police. Reason? There were too many people at once! Now that's a story worth telling their children and their children's children in years to come.

    I'm not so sure there will be years to come to laugh this off. Suppose the current outbreak clears up in two months. Thousands dead around the world.
    In ten years there could be another outbreak. They're working on a vaccine but to get it right will take testing and time could be years they don't want to cause more problems with a bad vaccine. It'll be years. This won't be a laugh for a while.

    So let's say in 3 years they get a vaccine. People get it done don't. If there's an outbreak again people will die again. The world's changed.

  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,066
    edited March 2020
    @smeagolheart Except, unless you're expecting mutations, once this outbreak is over there will be herd immunity to this disease because so many will have caught and survived it. They will have the antibodies in their systems. This in turn will make it so much harder for this particular disease to be transmitted as to render it, for all practical purposes, extinct. At which point compulsory (or overwhelming societal pressure) immunisation of young children will be introduced to give new generations the same level of protection.

    TR

    Balrog99
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    @TarotRedhand We're way past the "expecting mutations" bit though. There already exist various strands with different genomic diversity of the virus - some of them more severe than others. As it's undergoing active recombination, creating a vaccine will be even harder to do. There is currently also no evidence that the "old" anibodies will prevent a future outbreak, or by chance make it even worse, when confronted with a different strand of the virus.

    In other news: A case report of neonatal COVID-19 infection in China
    In December 2019, the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China and now has spread in many countries. Pregnant women are susceptible population of COVID-19 which are more likely to have complications and even progresse to severe illness. We report a case of neonatal COVID-19 infection in China with pharyngeal swabs tested positive by rRT-PCR assay 36 hours after birth. However, whether the case is a vertical transmission from mother to child remains to be confirmed.

  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    @smeagolheart Except, unless you're expecting mutations, once this outbreak is over there will be herd immunity to this disease because so many will have caught and survived it. They will have the antibodies in their systems. This in turn will make it so much harder for this particular disease to be transmitted as to render it, for all practical purposes, extinct. At which point compulsory (or overwhelming societal pressure) immunisation of young children will be introduced to give new generations the same level of protection.

    TR

    Exactly! The only reason the flu hasn't wiped out humanity already is because of this very thing. Remember when AIDS was going to kill us all? No? I do.

    @smeagolheart

    Thousands dead around a world of 8 billion people is not going to shut everything down or permanently change life as we know it. It just won't. Turn off CNN and go outside for a walk my friend.

  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    Grond0 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    @smeagolheart Except, unless you're expecting mutations, once this outbreak is over there will be herd immunity to this disease because so many will have caught and survived it. They will have the antibodies in their systems. This in turn will make it so much harder for this particular disease to be transmitted as to render it, for all practical purposes, extinct. At which point compulsory (or overwhelming societal pressure) immunisation of young children will be introduced to give new generations the same level of protection.

    TR

    Exactly! The only reason the flu hasn't wiped out humanity already is because of this very thing. Remember when AIDS was going to kill us all? No? I do.

    @smeagolheart

    Thousands dead around a world of 8 billion people is not going to shut everything down or permanently change life as we know it. It just won't. Turn off CNN and go outside for a walk my friend.

    That's a pretty rosy projection. I agree it's a possible scenario, but it assumes that the sort of reductions in cases seen in South Korea and China are permanent, i.e. the disease there has been exterminated, rather than just being suppressed ready to break out again in the future. That would give rise to the expectation that, following a fairly short-term major effort worldwide, the virus would no longer be a problem. I hope that optimism proves well-founded, but I think it's much too early to plan for the best.

    The projections from European countries are generally far more pessimistic than that best case scenario, with expectations of over half the population being affected. If half the population of the whole world caught the disease over the next year or so, a 1% death rate would be about the best possible result, assuming that appropriate care and treatment was available - that would be 40 million. In practice though even modern health systems would quickly get overloaded even if case numbers were a small fraction of that, so death rates would certainly be much higher. Nothing has come remotely close to that sort of worldwide potential effect since the 1918 flu epidemic, which affected about one fifth of the world's population and caused an estimated 50 million deaths.

    I agree with the principle that this disease doesn't threaten civilization as a whole. However, there's a real chance of a breakdown of civil society in some less-developed countries if the disease hits with a major peak rather than being spread out over time. Even where that doesn't occur, there is likely to be very considerable disruption over the coming months and long-lasting social effects. Some of those of course could be very beneficial - like greater international cooperation in spotting and tackling disease, increased investment in public health provision and more awareness of the downsides of travel & the potential for remote working (which would be great from the perspective of climate change as well).

    On the downside a significant proportion of current jobs will be lost. While there will be a future bounce back for things like tourism, transport and retail provision that will come too late for many people's existing livelihoods unless there is an unprecedented level of government intervention (far greater that that seen as a result of the 2008 financial crash). I can also foresee a more widespread growth of interest in the sorts of systems of social control being developed in China in recent years as well a general growth in xenophobia.

    Point - Counterpoint

    I love it! Well I hope I'm the one that proves to be correct here... ;)

    There isn't a whole Hell of a lot any of can do about it anyway so even if the shit does hit the fan there isn't much point to worrying ourselves into bad health. Be smart, be safe and find a way to calm your brains. That's my advice.

    (Oh, and cheap vodka is a not bad alternative to paying $20 for a $5 bottle of hand sanitizer. There's still plenty of that on the shelves last time I looked.)

    Grond0
  • dunbardunbar Member Posts: 1,595
    edited March 2020
    Wuhan doctors celebrate closure of last temporary hospital
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-masks-video-doctors-nurses-hospital-a9402631.html

    Some good news at least - it seems that prompt and decisive action can have a positive effect.

    Balrog99Proont
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,615
    Which is of course absolutely not propaganda footage. :p

    Doesn't make those workers any less heroic. The medical workers in China and Italy have basically been working til they drop of exhaustion.

    ThacoBellProont
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    @jjstraka34 The health workers themselves? Absolutely, no questions about that! The CPC though? Absolutely not. Heck, there has been major media propaganda campaigns within China. Their focus? Blame shifting. A good chunk of them actually blame Italy, of all places, for the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak in Wuhan. If that doesn't boggle the mind, I don't know what does.

    Balrog99MathsorcererProont
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 6,916
    If you haven't seen it before, this Ted talk by Bill Gates from 2015 is very watchable. It talks about the likelihood of exactly the type of epidemic we're now seeing and explains the actions that could mitigate that.

    Proont
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,962
    The United States and Germany are vying to produce an exclusive vaccine against the coronavirus which is being developed in a German laboratory, Die Welt daily reported Saturday (link and translation below).

    According to the paper, US President Donald Trump is trying to poach German scientists working on an experimental vaccine against a global health threat that has now killed some 5,500 people with a view to having an exclusive licence rolled out in the United States.

    Such a vaccine would be "only for the United States"

    The German government confirmed this story

    Das Bundesgesundheitsministerium hat einen Bericht der "Welt am Sonntag" bestätig, wonach die US-Regierung sich um die in Tübingen ansässige Firma CureVac bemüht. Das Unternehmen arbeitet an einem Impfstoff gegen das Coronavirus.

    Das Gesundheitsministerium wird darin auch mit der Aussage zitiert, die Bundesregierung wolle, dass ein Impfstoff auch in Deutschland und Europa entwickelt werde. Dem Bericht zufolge will die Regierung Trump die deutschen Wissenschaftler mit hohen finanziellen Zuwendungen nach Amerika locken beziehungsweise das Medikament exklusiv für die USA sichern.

    Translation:

    The Federal Ministry of Health has confirmed a report by the "Welt am Sonntag", according to which the US government is endeavoring for the company CureVac based in Tübingen. The company is working on a vaccine against the coronavirus.

    The Ministry of Health is also quoted as saying that the federal government wants a vaccine to be developed in Germany and Europe. According to the report, the Trump administration wants to lure German scientists to America with high financial donations or secure the drug exclusively for the USA.

    Improved, full translation of the original article by WELT AM SONNTAG (German Newspaper).

    The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to information aquired by WELT AM SONNTAG (German Newspaper), the US government wants to secure the exclusive rights to it. The German government is trying to prevent this.

    Between the United States and Germany, the Corona crisis is reported to lead to an indirect but tangible economic policy debate. The reason: US President Donald Trump tries to lure German scientists working on a potential corona vaccine to America using high financial incentives, or to secure the drug exclusively for his country. WELT AM SONNTAG heard this in government circles.

    The US president allegedly offers the company a large amount of money to secure its work exclusively. Trump is doing everything possible to get a vaccine for the United States. "But only for the USA," says the federal government.

    According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the dispute between the two states is about the company CureVac, which is based in Tübingen and works together with the federally owned Paul Ehrlich Institute for Vaccines and Biomedical Medicines on the production of a vaccine against the virus. Government officials are now negotiating with CureVac.

    "The Federal Government is very interested in the fact that vaccines and active substances against the novel corona virus are also being developed in Germany and Europe," confirmed a spokesman for the (German) Ministry of Health to WELT AM SONNTAG. "In this regard, the government is in intensive talks with the company CureVac." We hear the government in Berlin tries to keep the company with financial offers. The company itself refused to answer questions.

    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?wtrid=onsite.onsitesearch

    KamigoroshiBalrog99Proont
  • MathsorcererMathsorcerer Member Posts: 3,009
    edited March 2020
    Police cleared Bourbon Street because people are defying public orders not to gather in large numbers. Nike is closing all of its stores. Many Wal-Mart locations, which are typically 24-hour, are closing at midnight because they don't have much in the way of grocery items to sell; this also gives them a chance to *clean* that part of their store. The more people who openly defy suggestions--or even orders--not to gather in large numbers is the more that they push political leaders to enact more strict restrictions on public gatherings. Dr. Fauci told CNN "I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in restaurants and in bars. Whatever it takes to do that, that's what I'd like to see." For now, let us set aside the fact that he uses the word "diminution"--nice word, hardly ever gets used--and focus on the fact that he was pretty much saying that he wants to see a policy in place by which restrictions on gatherings are *enforced*.

    Locally, last night wound up having one crate of large eggs left over--but still no milk--and the truck which arrived early this morning was, as we were told last night, going to be a half shipment--the district managers are directing half-shipments to the store locations so that all the stores have at least a little of something as opposed to nothing. Most of the soup was gone--including *all* the ramen--as were most of the canned vegetables. There were five empty pallets on the floor where bottled water used to be.

    Balrog99Proont
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    @smeagolheart

    I did a quick check online and came up with confirmation from CNBC about your last post.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/15/coronavirus-germany-tries-to-stop-us-luring-away-firm-seeking-vaccine.html

    This might not be as bad as it sounds though. There really should be a global effort to come up with a vaccine. This could actually facilitate discovery. It isn't necessarily nefarious...

    Mathsorcerer
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    It would be if both countries worked together in order to create a vaccine for all. What Trump currently does is anything but.

    smeagolheartThacoBellProont
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    It would be if both countries worked together in order to create a vaccine for all. What Trump currently does is anything but.

    Well, Trump can't buy the company for himself, it would be the US government. Congress controls the pocket books so unless the President has the newfound power to print money I'm not sure what you're implying here.

  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    edited March 2020
    DragonKing wrote: »

    Did you notice that they're not 'really' shutting the bars down in Hoboken? They can serve alcohol, just not food. Great, now people will be getting wasted on empty stomachs! Idiotic half-measures...

    smeagolheartProont
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    DragonKing wrote: »

    Did you notice that they're not 'really' shutting the bars down in Hoboken? They can serve alcohol, just not food. Great, now people will be getting wasted on empty stomachs! Idiotic half-measures...

    I was more focused on this the government is only half the answer, stupid individuals are going to be stupid no matter what.:
    "Hoboken also is implementing a citywide curfew from 10 p.m. through 5 a.m., effective Monday. All residents will be restricted to their homes, except for emergencies and if they're required to work.'


    or


    "The order to self-quarantine came from Mayor Mohammed Hameeduddin, who issued a stark warning to the township's 40,000 residents that they were not to visit each other, even other family members.


    I mean yea, it is an idiotic half measure, but... nope nevermind. I just caught myself following statement was going to be more one of politics than discussion of this virus.

    Balrog99smeagolheart
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