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  • QuickbladeQuickblade Member Posts: 957
    edited July 2020
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    Quickblade wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    Public schools have to reopen at this point in the US. We've went all in for reopening without controlling the virus. We lost. We can't fall too far behind the rest of the world in education, however. At this point, we need to protect the vulnerable (elderly folks and those who are immune-compromised) but we really can't protect everybody. That ship has sailed for the US and for Brazil, the UK and Sweden. Sorry Libs, you were right (and me, but the anti-science religious fundamentalists drowned me out), but it's too late now...

    So, just toss our children into it? Yeah, putting our literal future at risk seems a good idea...

    Pretty much. I don't think there's going to be much of a choice at this point. We'll have to trust our school superintendents to open them up safely. Would be nice to get them some relief money too, but I'm not holding my breath...

    There are about 50 million public school age children in the US at this point. Even assuming the mortality rate for this age group is as tiny as .01%, you are still talking 5000 dead children if the disease spreads. That's obviously probably a high number, but let's say even a small fraction of that takes place. If you think there is an uproar now, wait till about 100-200 parents of dead kids are on the Today show telling their story. To say nothing of the families of the teachers.

    I saw someone mention the other day that many parents are terrified of SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome) even though the percentages wouldn't indicate there is much to worry about. This is no different. If there is even a 1/10,000 chance your kid's case could be the one that turns tragic, many, many parents will not take that risk. Anything above zero in their mind's eye is too much.

    There's no helping people like that. Barring a miracle-cure or a vaccine, we're going to be living with risk for quite a while. How did we ever survive before vaccines?

    We didn't. Dead children. Millions of dead children. Basically your odds of living to 15 or so was probably about 40%. It's the real anchor as to why life expectancy was so low.

    Good news, after that point, you were probably going to outlive the average life expectancy.

    Well I was thinking about the late 19th, early 20th century, not the Middle Ages so I don't think it was quite that bad, but point taken.

    It didn't really change much from then until about the 1920s.

    https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality

    https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2019/06/Mortality-rates-of-children-over-last-two-millennia-800x533.png

    Oh, and guess what? 1920s is when the majority of vaccines started getting developed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_human_vaccines

    Preventing child mortality from infectious disease is one of, if not THE greatest reasons for the population boom of the 20th century. Reducing maternal mortality, improving agricultural production efficiency, and overall better living conditions helped, but the fact that you had a roughly even chance of dying before reaching breeding age is what slowed down population growth.
  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,481
    edited July 2020
    @Quickblade said
    Oh, and guess what? 1920s is when the majority of vaccines started getting developed.

    Edward Jenner anyone. Mind you I have every sympathy for the 8 year old boy he tested his theory on.

    TR
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 7,320
    A 3 month study of Covid-19 patients by King's College London showed significant drops in antibody levels over that time. This is further evidence that it is unlikely that natural herd immunity to the disease will develop - something that was never particularly probable anyway given that this does not happen with any of the 6 other coronaviruses known to infect humans.

    This also reduces the prospects for a long-lasting vaccine, though that may still be possible as a result of the various novel approaches being explored to make vaccines.
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    You don't have to be in a specific building to obtain what passes for education here in the US. There is zero reason to not use at home curriculum. Cane be done by computer or booklet, I've done both. There's already gobs of homeschool curriculum and resources available. The only reason to put children back in school during the pandemic is if you think socializing only counts if its in person, and that its more important than life.
  • lroumenlroumen Member Posts: 2,508
    edited July 2020
    I halfway disagree with that. Online education and work has definitely it's perks and for those who can handle it there is no reason not to do it, but people are simply not the same.
    Each student regardless of age learns at their own speed with their own educational tools for help, and this is for content as well as for social interactions. Some need more attention by a teacher, some parents just cannot explain the material well enough. Some learn from their fellow students, some need to learn how to function by themselves or in a group. In a class the teacher can dynamically check with their students if the material sticks or not while online you miss the behavioural clues. The aspect of personalised learning is definitely important.
    This is not to say that we should abolish studying from home altogether but we should find a healthy mix and give students the opportunity to customise their mix.

    A person needs to learn social aspects from both teleconferencing as well as physical interactions. I see plenty of people wither away while they work at home while at work they were vibrant and contributing. Talking to a screen makes them feel too isolated to care or they feel helpless that they cannot interact well.
    I see quiet people now overperform compared to the past years because the social pressure (needing to speak up in meetings or simply even in presenting) is so much lower. One example someone whom we hired with a teleconference interview who underperformed at the office tp our regrets but who is now doing exceptionally well, so we are considering to have a discussion with her to determine the most efficient way forward for when more people come back to work (to have for her the most effective home office split).


    In my country schools (below the age of 12) are open since mid June. No kid has been infected since and no extra breakouts have occurred. Numbers are going down continuously. End of August highschool and universities will go open again.
    The 1.5m society seems to hold up with the exception of some illegal parties here and there.
    Return to school or work is fully optional. Should you be part of a risk group or just be concerned then you are allowed without judgement to keep your kids and yourself at home.

    Science isn't always right but it has the ability to learn and adapt. Advices will constantly change due to new revelations. Should the 1.5m fail then the country will quickly revert back to the previous stage without issues.

    I am truthfully more concerned going to the grocery than going to work or to have my kids in school. It is like real life pacman sometimes. People either wait 5m away from you and create a full aisle blockade or they don't do the 1.5m, come in together with one cart each to buy one loaf of bread and they consider it a nice trip outside our something.
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited July 2020
    I don't think people can fully appreciate how much stupider things are in the US than anywhere else. We haven't done ANY of the legwork of other countries to make going back to school viable. We have an absentee federal government at best. At worst, you could make a serious argument that one of our political parties is working FOR the virus.

    The discourse is this:

    "We need to reopen schools!!!!!"

    "Ok, great, what's the detailed plan on how we're going to do that safely??"

    "We don't have one, but they need to be opened anyway!!!!!"

    That's where we are.
    Post edited by jjstraka34 on
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,367
    edited July 2020
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    I don't think people can fully appreciate how much stupider things are in the US than anywhere else. We haven't done ANY of the legwork of other countries to make going back to school viable. We have an absentee federal government at best. At worst, you could make a serious argument that one of our political parties is working FOR the virus.

    The discourse is this:

    "We need to reopen schools!!!!!"

    "Ok, great, what's the detailed plan on how we're going to do that safely??"

    "We don't have one, but they need to be opened anyway!!!!!"

    That's where we are.

    Betsy DeVoss = totally brain-dead puppet

    I watched her floundering through that debacle of an interview on Sunday. One of the worst performances in an interview I've ever seen.

    Btw: I didn't vote for her asshole husband 'Amway Boy' when he ran for governor either. They're like the Royal Family of Western Michigan.

    This shit-show is probably going to cost my daughter her basketball season. She was just starting to take it seriously and was starting to enjoy playing, too...
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,850
    edited July 2020
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    I don't think people can fully appreciate how much stupider things are in the US than anywhere else. We haven't done ANY of the legwork of other countries to make going back to school viable. We have an absentee federal government at best. At worst, you could make a serious argument that one of our political parties is working FOR the virus.

    The discourse is this:

    "We need to reopen schools!!!!!"

    "Ok, great, what's the detailed plan on how we're going to do that safely??"

    "We don't have one, but they need to be opened anyway!!!!!"

    That's where we are.

    Betsy DeVoss = totally brain-dead puppet

    I watched her floundering through that debacle of an interview on Sunday. One of the worst performances in an interview I've ever seen.

    Btw: I didn't vote for her asshole husband 'Amway Boy' when he ran for governor either. They're like the Royal Family of Western Michigan.

    This shit-show is probably going to cost my daughter her basketball season. She was just starting to take it seriously and was starting to enjoy playing, too...

    Sending kids back to school may or may not be safe depending on the location. Having Betsy DeVoss ostensibly "in charge" of this operation is going to make anyone who watches her think "holy shit, if this woman is at the helm, I think we're keeping the kids home". At this point, they've lost legitimacy with portions of the public.

    Personally, if Erik Prince's (Blackwater CEO) sister (which Devoss is) is saying it's safe to go back, I'm instinctively assuming she has a nefarious motive. My guess is the apple doesn't fall far from the war criminal tree.

    At this point, it's hard to tell if this refusal to do anything at all to combat the virus at the federal level is just paralyzing incompetence or part of a darker motive.
  • deltagodeltago Member Posts: 7,811
    You are looking at it at the macro level, when the micro is more appropriate.

    Just like how different governors, Republican and Democrat, handled their own states coronavirus response responsibly, each parent should be looking at what their school board is doing to prevent the spread and not what DeVoss is saying.

    There were guidelines released by the CDC for school openings. Yes Trump panicked and had them lessened, but it is still a minimum guideline parents should be looking for before sending their kids back to school.

    And if they are not following the guidelines, or aren’t doing something that you personally think should be done. Speak up, contact them and have every parent that you know contact them.

    I am also guessing the US doesn’t have school board trustees eh? https://elections.ontarioschooltrustees.org/WhatDoTrusteesDo/SchoolBoardTrustees.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

    You all should look into implementing them. I use to think it was just more bureaucratic rot but recent circumstances dictate they may have a purpose after all.
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    @lroumen "Each student regardless of age learns at their own speed with their own educational tools for help, and this is for content as well as for social interactions. "

    Well they definitely aren't getting that at public schools. Here in the US, the private and homeschool systems exist because public schools DON'T mark each child's needs. Its all standardized and every child has to learn the same things, the same way, and at the same speed.
  • lroumenlroumen Member Posts: 2,508
    I refuse to believe that teachers in the US are drones. Then you might as well fire them all because education is one of the main pillars in what children can and cannot achieve later in life.
  • QuickbladeQuickblade Member Posts: 957
    edited July 2020
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    You don't have to be in a specific building to obtain what passes for education here in the US. There is zero reason to not use at home curriculum. Cane be done by computer or booklet, I've done both. There's already gobs of homeschool curriculum and resources available. The only reason to put children back in school during the pandemic is if you think socializing only counts if its in person, and that its more important than life.

    2 words: (mandatory) Lab Courses. Namely science labs, but arguably anything that needs hands-on experience.

    My mother is and has been a chemistry professor at a university for more than 40 years. Her lecture has been reasonably converted to online in a crunch because of COVID, but dry-lab is no replacement for actual presence in labs.

    She has told me that the tentative plan in the future (Summer 2/Fall/Spring) is to basically hold half-capacity labs done in groups so that the group members alternate doing each lab in person.
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    lroumen wrote: »
    I refuse to believe that teachers in the US are drones. Then you might as well fire them all because education is one of the main pillars in what children can and cannot achieve later in life.

    Welcome to America. Teachers that actually get to properly teach are the minority. (Its not their fault, they aren't happy with it either.) That's why private schools and homeschooling are such big industries here.

    @Quickblade "2 words: (mandatory) Lab Courses. Namely science labs, but arguably anything that needs hands-on experience.

    My mother is and has been a chemistry professor at a university for more than 40 years. Her lecture has been reasonably converted to online in a crunch because of COVID, but dry-lab is no replacement for actual presence in labs."

    That's university though. Those students are adults and can decide for themselves.
  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,481
    Some interesting and promising initial results from the Oxford vaccine trial. If it continues to work in the manner stated in that article, it is potentially really good news.

    TR
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,367
    edited July 2020
    Just what I was afraid of. A means of testing large groups of people simultaneously by 'pooling' (that should have been utilized months ago in the US) is pretty much off the table for now due to the surge of cases. So much for quick and reliable testing...

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/20/trump-coronavirus-officials-testing-368441
    Post edited by Balrog99 on
  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,235
    @Arvia "We're so spoiled in Western Europe, with two generations growing up without war or natural disasters."

    We are a lot more similar than I thought.
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,367
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    Arvia wrote: »
    I'm starting to think people would be complaining about being forced to stay in a cellar if someone was bombing their town. We're so spoiled in Western Europe, with two generations growing up without war or natural disasters. And our individualism is killing us. Is the insight that you can't control everything that happens in your life really so frightening?

    And I hate it when people go
    "of course you believe everything they say, you're a doctor! I have my alternative sources of information!" Right, so you show the sources who confirm what you want to believe the same scepticism?

    I want to emigrate to Vulcan.

    Edited: Okay, Vulcans would kick me out because of my temper, but you know what I mean, logic and science...

    My sister tells me that science doesn't have all the answers then proceeds to tell me the truth lies within this elaborate conspiracy involving all of the world's governments (except Donald Trump, of course), nearly every educator, rich liberals, pedophiles, the Catholic Church, Muslims, CERND, the UN, the WHO, Hollywood and basically everybody with more than an Associates Degree in any science. She won't tell me anything more about it because she doesn't want to argue with me. I'm arrogant, you see. I feel like slitting my wrists with Occam's Razor sometimes... ?

    How are the Catholics involved??

    The Pope is in on it...
  • WarChiefZekeWarChiefZeke Member Posts: 2,651
    edited August 2020
    Alright, I'll bite...

    What is "COVID-19"?
  • jmerryjmerry Member Posts: 3,830
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ...this elaborate conspiracy involving ... CERND...
    Druids, man. "I shall be like the bamboo and flex". Knew he was up to something.

    A typo, of course, but I couldn't resist. It's not like the intended entry makes any more sense.

    There's a fundamental truth of human nature: large-scale conspiracies and cover-ups don't work. The more people involved, the faster they fall apart as someone talks.
    And from where I'm sitting ... I've heard the ambulances go by. There was a second-wave cluster in the frat houses right here within a block or two from where I live.
  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,481
    edited August 2020
    @WarChiefZeke said
    What is "COVID-19"?

    It is the disease caused by the novel coronavirus sars-cov-2 - i.e. the current pandemic.

    TR
  • ArviaArvia Member Posts: 2,101
    jmerry wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    ...this elaborate conspiracy involving ... CERND...
    Druids, man. "I shall be like the bamboo and flex". Knew he was up to something.

    Thanks for making me laugh. Better for my nerves, certainly.

    @Balrog99 , your sister sounds exactly like some of the people around here who make me want to bang my head against the wall. It's amazing how unreasonable people can be. Also, imagine what humanity would have achieved if so many organizations were really capable of working together on such a global level just to fake a disease...

  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 7,367
    In my pandemic fueled boredom, I found this interesting article about pandemic fueled boredom...

    https://www.salon.com/2020/08/02/how-americans-inability-to-cope-with-boredom-is-spurring-the-spread-of-coronavirus/
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