Entering lockdown here, starting tomorrow and at least for one week. Can't leave home except for work or the nearest store. Not that I expect most will give a damn about following the order, but I've made haste to the mall to stock up on perishables.
Re. the plasma/antibody treatment. I remember it being used to stop a smallish outbreak of ebola. Some nurses took it upon themselves to do this much to the annoyance of the doctors who were trying to study the disease never mind the effect on their patients.
Re. the antibody test to see who's had it. There is already such a test. It is being evaluated in the UK to see how accurate it is. As the scientists say a faulty test is worse than no test at all. It gives a false sense of security.
The use of plasma is quite an old technique.
Antibody testing is being eagerly awaited by medical personnel, many of whom may already have had the virus, the knowledge that they’re not at risk of catching it will greatly relieve their stress.
There were a couple of things that I found puzzling about this disease so I did a little digging.
We are told that the incubation period (that's from when you catch it up until you have symptoms) seemed a bit long. As I wasn't too sure I went looking and to some extent I was right. Turns out it is about the same as for mumps. But there are a lot of infectious viral diseases that take a lot less time, flu for example only takes 1 - 2 days. For an interesting article (including a list of diseases with incubation periods) look here.
The other thing I find somewhat puzzling, and haven't found a satisfying answer to, is that we are told two things. The first is that this disease is only contagious/infectious when symptoms show. The second is that some people show no symptoms but that they can be super-spreaders. So if they have no symptoms how can they possibly be spreading it? Something odd there.
The first is that this disease is only contagious/infectious when symptoms show. The second is that some people show no symptoms but that they can be super-spreaders. So if they have no symptoms how can they possibly be spreading it? Something odd there.
TR
I've never heard that first claim from a scientist. In fact what makes this so dangerous is that some people spread while not really feeling symptoms.
The other thing I find somewhat puzzling, and haven't found a satisfying answer to, is that we are told two things. The first is that this disease is only contagious/infectious when symptoms show. The second is that some people show no symptoms but that they can be super-spreaders. So if they have no symptoms how can they possibly be spreading it? Something odd there.
The advice I've seen is pretty consistent that people can be infectious without significant symptoms. Incubation issues are part of the reason Covid-19 is harder to deal with than flu:
- it has a longer incubation period. Flu has a very short period, typically no more than a couple of days. Covid-19 is more like 2-12 days (some sources say 2-14 days), with an average of 5.
- it is infectious for longer. Flu is typically infectious for 3-7 days after symptoms show. Covid-19 can be infectious for more like 10 days in total.
- it appears to be infectious before symptoms show. Heavy viral loads can be measured in studies for 2-3 days before symptoms show and for about a week after that.
Studies from China suggest that transmission by people with mild symptoms accounts for the majority of new infections - they are less infectious individually, but there are a lot more of them than those with severe symptoms.
I agree though that there is some inconsistency in the advice given out in the UK about self-isolation. That includes timescales based on the expected incubation and infectious periods:
- isolation should be for 14 days after any potential exposure (timed to equal the maximum incubation period for the vast majority of cases).
- isolation should be for 7 days from the onset of symptoms (timed to equal the maximum infectious period for the vast majority of cases).
That advice implicitly assumes that someone with Covid-19 will always show symptoms at some point. The question is still open about whether there are rare 'super-spreader' cases where someone is infectious without ever developing any symptoms at all. However, apart from potential spread before symptoms develop, there's also no doubt that there are significant numbers of people who can be infectious while having only very mild symptoms (that most people would simply ignore). That's one of the main reasons the self-isolation guidance has been supplemented for the time being by the social distancing requirements (that apply to the whole population).
Another potential inconsistency in information provided in the UK relates to testing criteria. In the early days of the epidemic testing was partly done based on symptoms / travel history and partly on a random basis to assess spread through the general population. As the number of infections grew faster than the testing capacity, that random element was withdrawn and only people with symptoms were tested. Recently a new program of testing has commenced for NHS and other essential workers, but currently most testing is still based on symptoms. The rationale for that is not though that only symptomatic people can spread the disease. I would say the real rationale is the shortage of test kits, though the stated one is to avoid the problem of false negatives (where the test gives a negative result, although people are in fact already in the incubation period).
Entering lockdown here, starting tomorrow and at least for one week. Can't leave home except for work or the nearest store. Not that I expect most will give a damn about following the order, but I've made haste to the mall to stock up on perishables.
The governor told all school districts that he's considering canceling the rest of the school year. I hope efforts are being made to stepup online schooling.
No school in the Netherlands until at least after the May holidays. Not unexpected.
Potentially longer which would mean the end of the school year. Not unexpected either.
Ontario’s state of emergency extended for another 2 weeks till at least April 13. That’ll be 5 weeks of not working.
And yet it’s a beautiful spring day. Young kids are playing and screaming below me, some idiot is playing the bagpipes somewhere (Star Wars theme though), neighbours washing their cars or taking walks, more cars on the street than last week. I keep checking the date to make sure it isn’t some elaborate April Fools day prank to keep me in the apartment...
2 deaths so far in my city, both people in their 90s. The scary thing is that the second person contracted the virus while living in a retirement home, so I feel sorry for not only their family, but the families and patrons of that facility. There maybe more deaths because of an outbreak there. Just the stress of thinking that may be driving people to become sick.
Only 130 confirmed cases in the city though. For a population of about a million, I think that’s good. I keep telling my roommate as long as the numbers trickle up, instead of doubling up, we are in a good position. I think all levels of government here have done a fantastic job of getting ahead of the spread, especially Ford even if I am thinking these extra two weeks maybe overreach. But I do understand the caution.
My roommate is bored at work. Since all elective surgeries have been canceled, and the outbreak here isn’t as dire as first projected (potentially 6000 people in Ottawa having it before the shutdown) there are only 6 people in intensive care for the virus. She says the hospital is like a ghost town. Quarantine keeping visitors away from the live in patients, and no new patients showing up, as a pharmacy technician, who prepares drugs on the fly for patients, her and her team are running out of things to clean and prep. She’s afraid people she works with will get use to the slow pace and of it does explode on them, they won’t be able to adjust fast enough.
Ok. Wall of text done. I’m going to find something else to amuse myself with... this boredom is brutal.
Well, only reason I accept quarantine is because they aren't trying to protect me from myself, but others from me... that's unfortunate, but fair in my book
Ron DeSantis is, today, officially the absolute dumbest person in the country for not shutting down the state of Florida. There is going to be an absolute nightmare in that state that could have been prevented if he hadn't INSISTED, even to this hour, that he doesn't have to make that move.
Washington's cases and deaths seem to be slowing down. Not sure if that's related to real numbers or if stuff hasn't been reported.
They've had one outbreak yes, but what about second outbreak?
(hope a LOTR joke or two during these grim times is not unwelcome. And seriously so it's slowing down, it can come back, can't it? Unless there's a miracle and it decides to give up so people can go church on Easter or something.)
Re. the plasma/antibody treatment. I remember it being used to stop a smallish outbreak of ebola. Some nurses took it upon themselves to do this much to the annoyance of the doctors who were trying to study the disease never mind the effect on their patients.
Re. the antibody test to see who's had it. There is already such a test. It is being evaluated in the UK to see how accurate it is. As the scientists say a faulty test is worse than no test at all. It gives a false sense of security.
TR
The problem is that having antibodies doesn't guarantee you won't ever catch it again. It just means that you've had it. Of course, if you've had it without severe symptoms, it's most likely that catching it again with antibodies already present will result in an even better response from your immune system.
Research must be done how the antibody titers change with time. Sometimes, immunity doesn't last. Also, mutations are still a possibility.
Of course antibody titers are very important to test how much of the population has really been exposed to the virus (as opposed to the PCR tests for the acute infection, which are too expensive and the resources too limited to do them on a much larger scale, and which will only detect the active infection during a narrow window of a few days).
Our teachers still write "see you after the Easter break". I've told my children from the beginning that it's a possibility that school won't open again until summer, and that information and decisions may change daily, and several times a day.
As in, it's okay to hope for the best, but be prepared that a lot of other things may or may not happen. And for a kid with autism, who hates nothing more than unpredictability and may have a meltdown because someone put a shirt into the pants drawer, that's a lot to take. I'm really proud of my children how well they're handling the situation.
Also, I'm so glad that we have a house and a garden and it takes only 5-10 minutes to walk to open fields and forests, and that we're still allowed to go for a walk together, as long as it's only members of the same household.
Stay safe, everyone out there. Be patient, keep your distance from others, and stay polite and considerate. We're all in this together.
Humble Conquer COVID-19 Bundle
28 bucks for a game and e-book bundle worth $1,071? Sign me in!
Also includes the Starfinder: Pact Worlds Campaign Setting for those interested in that tapletop game.
So thousands of deaths coming in the next 2 weeks.
Does this mean I'm sitting on my death bed and I just don't realize it yet. We've seen physically fit 18 year old athletes drop dead without a single symptom.
Someone like me with heart and breathing, my chances may not be lower than the elderly, but that doesn't really mean they are high.
I feel like years of depression have been punching me in the face througjoit my entire birth month this year.
Humble Conquer COVID-19 Bundle
28 bucks for a game and e-book bundle worth $1,071? Sign me in!
Also includes the Starfinder: Pact Worlds Campaign Setting for those interested in that tapletop game.
Michigan just cancelled the in-person school year. This'll be interesting to see how they plan on handling the at-home learning. My guess is that there will be a lot of kids behind the curve next Fall...
Women's panty liners make self-made face masks safer
Peter Walger from the German Society for Hospital Hygiene recommends all hobby seamsters and seamstresses to attach a women's panty liner as an additional filter when creating self-made face masks. "It is like a diaper in a small format: air-permeable, boilable, keeps moisture out," said Walger in the Hesse Radio Corona update. It is also important to dry damp masks before using them again and to kill possible germs. "It's best to cook them for five minutes, then put them in the oven to dry."
I wonder why no post-apocalyptic game or movie franchise had picked that particular life hack up yet?
I talked before about the need to understand the real impact of Covid-19 on deaths as part of assessing how best to tackle it once the immediate peak has been reached. This article considers that issue.
Anyone with the knowledge and equipment(a good sewing machine or surger) please get involved with making masks. It's relatively simple, there are directions online, and they are groups helping with materials and pick up/delivery. These are for healthcare workers on the front lines of this war, who are running low or have exhausted supplies. If you don't have the know how or equipment then try to help on the support side(the supplies and delivery). Don't leave the medical community out of our efforts, we need them.
Well, despite our best efforts, it seems that COVID-19 has managed to secure a foothold in Singapore, with our confirmed cases now exceeding 1000 and the death toll standing at 5. (All of them within the last week too.) We're still not at the stage where a lockdown is necessary, but I think we're heading that way. The government has ordered schools to be closed starting next week, food outlets will only be allowed to open for takeaway or delivery orders (a necessity in a city where I'd say the vast majority of citizens do not cook their own food), and masks will be mandatory for when you're out and about. (We know that surgical masks do not prevent the spread of the virus itself, especially given the evidence that it can also be spread through aerosolized micro-particles, but the community spread is now wide enough that we don't need asymptomatic carriers or worse, inconsiderate idiots who are visibly sick but still refuse to wear a mask, to at least reduce the spray of large droplets from sneezes or coughs to try and mitigate the spread area somewhat.)
Comments
Re. the antibody test to see who's had it. There is already such a test. It is being evaluated in the UK to see how accurate it is. As the scientists say a faulty test is worse than no test at all. It gives a false sense of security.
TR
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/
The use of plasma is quite an old technique.
Antibody testing is being eagerly awaited by medical personnel, many of whom may already have had the virus, the knowledge that they’re not at risk of catching it will greatly relieve their stress.
We are told that the incubation period (that's from when you catch it up until you have symptoms) seemed a bit long. As I wasn't too sure I went looking and to some extent I was right. Turns out it is about the same as for mumps. But there are a lot of infectious viral diseases that take a lot less time, flu for example only takes 1 - 2 days. For an interesting article (including a list of diseases with incubation periods) look here.
The other thing I find somewhat puzzling, and haven't found a satisfying answer to, is that we are told two things. The first is that this disease is only contagious/infectious when symptoms show. The second is that some people show no symptoms but that they can be super-spreaders. So if they have no symptoms how can they possibly be spreading it? Something odd there.
TR
TR
I've never heard that first claim from a scientist. In fact what makes this so dangerous is that some people spread while not really feeling symptoms.
The advice I've seen is pretty consistent that people can be infectious without significant symptoms. Incubation issues are part of the reason Covid-19 is harder to deal with than flu:
- it has a longer incubation period. Flu has a very short period, typically no more than a couple of days. Covid-19 is more like 2-12 days (some sources say 2-14 days), with an average of 5.
- it is infectious for longer. Flu is typically infectious for 3-7 days after symptoms show. Covid-19 can be infectious for more like 10 days in total.
- it appears to be infectious before symptoms show. Heavy viral loads can be measured in studies for 2-3 days before symptoms show and for about a week after that.
Studies from China suggest that transmission by people with mild symptoms accounts for the majority of new infections - they are less infectious individually, but there are a lot more of them than those with severe symptoms.
I agree though that there is some inconsistency in the advice given out in the UK about self-isolation. That includes timescales based on the expected incubation and infectious periods:
- isolation should be for 14 days after any potential exposure (timed to equal the maximum incubation period for the vast majority of cases).
- isolation should be for 7 days from the onset of symptoms (timed to equal the maximum infectious period for the vast majority of cases).
That advice implicitly assumes that someone with Covid-19 will always show symptoms at some point. The question is still open about whether there are rare 'super-spreader' cases where someone is infectious without ever developing any symptoms at all. However, apart from potential spread before symptoms develop, there's also no doubt that there are significant numbers of people who can be infectious while having only very mild symptoms (that most people would simply ignore). That's one of the main reasons the self-isolation guidance has been supplemented for the time being by the social distancing requirements (that apply to the whole population).
Another potential inconsistency in information provided in the UK relates to testing criteria. In the early days of the epidemic testing was partly done based on symptoms / travel history and partly on a random basis to assess spread through the general population. As the number of infections grew faster than the testing capacity, that random element was withdrawn and only people with symptoms were tested. Recently a new program of testing has commenced for NHS and other essential workers, but currently most testing is still based on symptoms. The rationale for that is not though that only symptomatic people can spread the disease. I would say the real rationale is the shortage of test kits, though the stated one is to avoid the problem of false negatives (where the test gives a negative result, although people are in fact already in the incubation period).
Stay safe, stay strong
Potentially longer which would mean the end of the school year. Not unexpected either.
And yet it’s a beautiful spring day. Young kids are playing and screaming below me, some idiot is playing the bagpipes somewhere (Star Wars theme though), neighbours washing their cars or taking walks, more cars on the street than last week. I keep checking the date to make sure it isn’t some elaborate April Fools day prank to keep me in the apartment...
2 deaths so far in my city, both people in their 90s. The scary thing is that the second person contracted the virus while living in a retirement home, so I feel sorry for not only their family, but the families and patrons of that facility. There maybe more deaths because of an outbreak there. Just the stress of thinking that may be driving people to become sick.
Only 130 confirmed cases in the city though. For a population of about a million, I think that’s good. I keep telling my roommate as long as the numbers trickle up, instead of doubling up, we are in a good position. I think all levels of government here have done a fantastic job of getting ahead of the spread, especially Ford even if I am thinking these extra two weeks maybe overreach. But I do understand the caution.
My roommate is bored at work. Since all elective surgeries have been canceled, and the outbreak here isn’t as dire as first projected (potentially 6000 people in Ottawa having it before the shutdown) there are only 6 people in intensive care for the virus. She says the hospital is like a ghost town. Quarantine keeping visitors away from the live in patients, and no new patients showing up, as a pharmacy technician, who prepares drugs on the fly for patients, her and her team are running out of things to clean and prep. She’s afraid people she works with will get use to the slow pace and of it does explode on them, they won’t be able to adjust fast enough.
Ok. Wall of text done. I’m going to find something else to amuse myself with... this boredom is brutal.
FYI:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-31-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/?amp=1
Ron DeSantis is, today, officially the absolute dumbest person in the country for not shutting down the state of Florida. There is going to be an absolute nightmare in that state that could have been prevented if he hadn't INSISTED, even to this hour, that he doesn't have to make that move.
They've had one outbreak yes, but what about second outbreak?
(hope a LOTR joke or two during these grim times is not unwelcome. And seriously so it's slowing down, it can come back, can't it? Unless there's a miracle and it decides to give up so people can go church on Easter or something.)
The overloading of data doesn't look good.
The problem is that having antibodies doesn't guarantee you won't ever catch it again. It just means that you've had it. Of course, if you've had it without severe symptoms, it's most likely that catching it again with antibodies already present will result in an even better response from your immune system.
Research must be done how the antibody titers change with time. Sometimes, immunity doesn't last. Also, mutations are still a possibility.
Of course antibody titers are very important to test how much of the population has really been exposed to the virus (as opposed to the PCR tests for the acute infection, which are too expensive and the resources too limited to do them on a much larger scale, and which will only detect the active infection during a narrow window of a few days).
Our teachers still write "see you after the Easter break". I've told my children from the beginning that it's a possibility that school won't open again until summer, and that information and decisions may change daily, and several times a day.
As in, it's okay to hope for the best, but be prepared that a lot of other things may or may not happen. And for a kid with autism, who hates nothing more than unpredictability and may have a meltdown because someone put a shirt into the pants drawer, that's a lot to take. I'm really proud of my children how well they're handling the situation.
Also, I'm so glad that we have a house and a garden and it takes only 5-10 minutes to walk to open fields and forests, and that we're still allowed to go for a walk together, as long as it's only members of the same household.
Stay safe, everyone out there. Be patient, keep your distance from others, and stay polite and considerate. We're all in this together.
28 bucks for a game and e-book bundle worth $1,071? Sign me in!
Also includes the Starfinder: Pact Worlds Campaign Setting for those interested in that tapletop game.
Does this mean I'm sitting on my death bed and I just don't realize it yet. We've seen physically fit 18 year old athletes drop dead without a single symptom.
Someone like me with heart and breathing, my chances may not be lower than the elderly, but that doesn't really mean they are high.
I feel like years of depression have been punching me in the face througjoit my entire birth month this year.
This is very cool.
Curse words make it NSFW
But it's pretty funny
TR
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/04/02/michigan-governor-suspends-in-person-learning-at-k-12-schools-for-rest-of-school-year/?outputType=amp
TR