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COVID-19

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  • ThacoBellThacoBell Member Posts: 12,009
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    @smeagolheart Except, unless you're expecting mutations, once this outbreak is over there will be herd immunity to this disease because so many will have caught and survived it. They will have the antibodies in their systems. This in turn will make it so much harder for this particular disease to be transmitted as to render it, for all practical purposes, extinct. At which point compulsory (or overwhelming societal pressure) immunisation of young children will be introduced to give new generations the same level of protection.

    TR

    Exactly! The only reason the flu hasn't wiped out humanity already is because of this very thing. Remember when AIDS was going to kill us all? No? I do.

    @smeagolheart

    Thousands dead around a world of 8 billion people is not going to shut everything down or permanently change life as we know it. It just won't. Turn off CNN and go outside for a walk my friend.

    You do know that the immune deficient people that are likely to be the "thousands" can read this right? "Oh, it'll be fine. Thousands of people that aren't likely to be me are going to die. No big."

    smeagolheartBelleSorciereProont
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    ThacoBell wrote: »
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    @smeagolheart Except, unless you're expecting mutations, once this outbreak is over there will be herd immunity to this disease because so many will have caught and survived it. They will have the antibodies in their systems. This in turn will make it so much harder for this particular disease to be transmitted as to render it, for all practical purposes, extinct. At which point compulsory (or overwhelming societal pressure) immunisation of young children will be introduced to give new generations the same level of protection.

    TR

    Exactly! The only reason the flu hasn't wiped out humanity already is because of this very thing. Remember when AIDS was going to kill us all? No? I do.

    @smeagolheart

    Thousands dead around a world of 8 billion people is not going to shut everything down or permanently change life as we know it. It just won't. Turn off CNN and go outside for a walk my friend.

    You do know that the immune deficient people that are likely to be the "thousands" can read this right? "Oh, it'll be fine. Thousands of people that aren't likely to be me are going to die. No big."

    I don't recall saying that. I thought I said something along the lines of, it won't be the end of Western Civilization and, unless you have the power to somehow stop it, you're not doing yourself any good worrying about it. Do what you can to keep you and your family safe. That's all you can do anyway for the time being...

    smeagolheartProont
  • MathsorcererMathsorcerer Member Posts: 3,009
    edited March 2020
    America is a very self-focused society, we're not concerned about the our fellow Americans as we should be.

    I know that you have been paying attention in recent years. We--citizens of the United States, that is--simply don't like each other very much. At all. Even under the shadow of corona--there is too much bad blood between large groups of us. Even in the last two weeks, group A has been accusing group B of doing nothing or ignoring the situation and group B has been accusing group A of "politically weaponizing" the media coverage. Neither group is going to lose much sleep if people from the other group die.

    "Caring about each other" is a wonderful sentiment, indeed, but that is not the reality in which we live. We must deal with the world as it exists, not as we would like it to be. Sometimes even *I* don't like having to live by that rule, but it is what it is.

    PokotaProont
  • DragonKingDragonKing Member Posts: 1,884
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    America is a very self-focused society, we're not concerned about the our fellow Americans as we should be.

    I know that you have been paying attention in recent years. We--citizens of the United States, that is--simply don't like each other very much. At all. Even under the shadow of corona--there is too much bad blood between large groups of us. Even in the last two weeks, group A has been accusing group B of doing nothing or ignoring the situation and group B has been accusing group A of "politically weaponizing" the media coverage. Neither group is going to lose much sleep if people from the other group die.

    "Caring about each other" is a wonderful sentiment, indeed, but that is not the reality in which we live. We must deal with the world as it exists, not as we would like it to be. Sometimes even *I* don't like having to live by that rule, but it is what it is.

    This is simply not true. I don't hate or dislike the Democrats I work with or interact with. I can disagree with them and even root against them in elections without feeling any real animosity towards them. Hell I even vote for one of their candidates once in a while. People on their own are pretty reasonable for the most part. It's the media and the thought police on both sides that are polarizing this country...

    This, so much This... I don't hate either dems or Repub, I hate the tribalism people carry with them which is dangerously real on both side.

    But that is a discussion for another topic.

    Balrog99ThacoBellZaxares
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 174
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    Balrog99smeagolheartProontThacoBell
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,616
    edited March 2020
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    "Far more listening than not" isn't going to cut it. Exponential growth and what is happening in Europe cannot be waved away and dismissed with wishful thinking anymore:

    KamigoroshiProont
  • TarotRedhandTarotRedhand Member Posts: 1,066
    edited March 2020
    Saw this re-tweet yesterday -
    On the bus today. I coughed and four people turned around. Felt like I was on The Voice.

    TR

    Balrog99
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 174
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    "Far more listening than not" isn't going to cut it. Exponential growth and what is happening in Europe cannot be waved away and dismissed with wishful thinking anymore:


    I didn’t say that more listening than not was going to solve the problem, I simply said that to make the point that one photo or video of some idiots at a bar is not representative of what’s happening right now. I am a proponent of overreacting in situations such as this, but the reality is that the world isn’t going to stop moving. Everyone has become obsessed with the numbers - numbers are a good thing. Numbers are how solutions are ultimately created.

  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,616
    edited March 2020
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    "Far more listening than not" isn't going to cut it. Exponential growth and what is happening in Europe cannot be waved away and dismissed with wishful thinking anymore:


    I didn’t say that more listening than not was going to solve the problem, I simply said that to make the point that one photo or video of some idiots at a bar is not representative of what’s happening right now. I am a proponent of overreacting in situations such as this, but the reality is that the world isn’t going to stop moving. Everyone has become obsessed with the numbers - numbers are a good thing. Numbers are how solutions are ultimately created.

    Problem being we don't have numbers. The rationing of testing kits has been so extreme due to lack of availability and no idea at local levels what to do for those exhibiting symptoms that a extremely conservative estimate of the actual number of cases walking around out there is at least 10x what the actual number is. And that is likely low-balling it by orders of magnitude.

    The governor of Illinois is closing all bars and restaurants starting tomorrow til the end of the month. New York needs to do so IMMEDIATELY. All other governors have to be seriously considering similar moves by no later than the end of the week, even in less populated states. Delivery service is still an option for these restaurants, for the time being. I myself ordered food today thorough delivery. Everyone is implementing no contact options to leave the food at the door.

    Post edited by jjstraka34 on
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 174
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    "Far more listening than not" isn't going to cut it. Exponential growth and what is happening in Europe cannot be waved away and dismissed with wishful thinking anymore:


    I didn’t say that more listening than not was going to solve the problem, I simply said that to make the point that one photo or video of some idiots at a bar is not representative of what’s happening right now. I am a proponent of overreacting in situations such as this, but the reality is that the world isn’t going to stop moving. Everyone has become obsessed with the numbers - numbers are a good thing. Numbers are how solutions are ultimately created.

    Problem being we don't have numbers. The rationing of testing kits has been so extreme due to lack of availability and no idea at local levels what to do for those exhibiting symptoms that a extremely conservative estimate of the actual number of cases walking around out there is at least 10x what the actual number is. And that is likely low-balling it by orders of magnitude.

    The governor of Illinois is closing all bars and restaurants starting tomorrow til the end of the month. New York needs to do so IMMEDIATELY. All other governors have to be seriously considering similar moves by no later than the end of the week, even in less populated states. Delivery service is still an option for these restaurants, for the time being. I myself ordered food today thorough delivery. Everyone is implementing no contact options to leave the food at the door.

    Similar actions are being taken in my neck of the woods, as well. It's absolutely true that the numbers are worse than reported statistics show, but let's not be naive: the virus has likely been in America for months. Obviously, even with the small amount of testing we've done, we've been able to figure out that we need to take precautions such as social distancing. This is going to get worse before it gets better, but it's also likely to hit its peak sooner than a fair amount of people expect.

    New York's bigger problem is gonna be that De Blasio is hell-bent on keeping schools open (for whatever reason). Even if children (and young adults) seem to be the group least effected by this, they can, and likely will, still carry the disease on them. Children will still go to school if it's open, which is why it's essential to mandate that they be closed. People will eat at home (or order take-out) by their own volition for a few weeks without a mandate.

  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    It's official now: Germany closes its borders with France, Austria, Swiss and Denmark starting tomorrow.
    Commuters and commercial vehicles will apparently still be allowed to travel through them. But that's about it for the time being.

    Austria has now decreed that its citizens can only leave their homes for three occasions: leaving for work, procuring food/medicine and to help others if need be. Everything else has shut down there - including bars and restaurants. Spain did the same as Austria with their own state of emergency for tomorrow morning. And I am sure other European countries will follow their examples sooner rather than later. Oh joy...

    FandraxxBalrog99Proont
  • BallpointManBallpointMan Member Posts: 1,555
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    I’m in an area that has already seen some quarantine measures put in place and I can safely say that far more are listening to the instructions of the government and CDC (social distancing) than not. There are some jackasses, sure, but that’s unfortunately the case with anything. Lot of panic has set in on social media, sadly and it’s warping the perspective for most. Stay safe, folks.

    "Far more listening than not" isn't going to cut it. Exponential growth and what is happening in Europe cannot be waved away and dismissed with wishful thinking anymore:


    I didn’t say that more listening than not was going to solve the problem, I simply said that to make the point that one photo or video of some idiots at a bar is not representative of what’s happening right now. I am a proponent of overreacting in situations such as this, but the reality is that the world isn’t going to stop moving. Everyone has become obsessed with the numbers - numbers are a good thing. Numbers are how solutions are ultimately created.

    Problem being we don't have numbers. The rationing of testing kits has been so extreme due to lack of availability and no idea at local levels what to do for those exhibiting symptoms that a extremely conservative estimate of the actual number of cases walking around out there is at least 10x what the actual number is. And that is likely low-balling it by orders of magnitude.

    The governor of Illinois is closing all bars and restaurants starting tomorrow til the end of the month. New York needs to do so IMMEDIATELY. All other governors have to be seriously considering similar moves by no later than the end of the week, even in less populated states. Delivery service is still an option for these restaurants, for the time being. I myself ordered food today thorough delivery. Everyone is implementing no contact options to leave the food at the door.

    Similar actions are being taken in my neck of the woods, as well. It's absolutely true that the numbers are worse than reported statistics show, but let's not be naive: the virus has likely been in America for months. Obviously, even with the small amount of testing we've done, we've been able to figure out that we need to take precautions such as social distancing. This is going to get worse before it gets better, but it's also likely to hit its peak sooner than a fair amount of people expect.

    New York's bigger problem is gonna be that De Blasio is hell-bent on keeping schools open (for whatever reason). Even if children (and young adults) seem to be the group least effected by this, they can, and likely will, still carry the disease on them. Children will still go to school if it's open, which is why it's essential to mandate that they be closed. People will eat at home (or order take-out) by their own volition for a few weeks without a mandate.

    I have heard that there are thousands of children that go to school in NYC but are otherwise homeless - and those schools are one of their only major sources of food in the form of school lunches.

    It’s a bad situation, closing and staying open. I really don’t envy the hard choices that must be made.

    FandraxxProontThacoBell
  • Balrog99Balrog99 Member Posts: 6,882
    It's official now: Germany closes its borders with France, Austria, Swiss and Denmark starting tomorrow.
    Commuters and commercial vehicles will apparently still be allowed to travel through them. But that's about it for the time being.

    Austria has now decreed that its citizens can only leave their homes for three occasions: leaving for work, procuring food/medicine and to help others if need be. Everything else has shut down there - including bars and restaurants. Spain did the same as Austria with their own state of emergency for tomorrow morning. And I am sure other European countries will follow their examples sooner rather than later. Oh joy...

    How are you supposed to know if others need help if you can't leave your house?

    Mathsorcerer
  • AedanAedan Member, Translator (NDA) Posts: 8,530
    Hi guys!

    Here in Italy we are in quarantine, at least until April 3rd. I fear that it will not be over for that day, but we will see.

    Sending my support to all of you.

    Stay safe!

    KamigoroshiBalrog99
  • KamigoroshiKamigoroshi Member Posts: 5,876
    Balrog99 wrote: »
    How are you supposed to know if others need help if you can't leave your house?
    Phones, for instance. It's also true that parents who require to work outside (fire workers, doctors, drivers, ect.) are in dire need of people to take care of their children. The day care centres have closed all around. That would also count as helping others.

    @Aedan Thanks, you do too! Soon enough quarantine knocks on our door as well.

    AedanProontThacoBell
  • AedanAedan Member, Translator (NDA) Posts: 8,530
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on
    Balrog99Proont
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,616
    edited March 2020
    We have been being told by the Administration in the US that testing is "on the way" for the last two weeks. The amount is still abysmal by any standard other countries have set. We have conducted 30,000, total, thus far. Now we are being told it will be ANOTHER week before it becomes more widespread. The decision to decline the test kits offered by the WHO in January is going to be possibly the biggest blunder of the past century. We're driving with the headlights off on a moonless night. By contrast, South Korea has been consistently conducting 10,000 per day on a MUCH smaller population.

    Post edited by jjstraka34 on
    smeagolheartProontThacoBell
  • FandraxxFandraxx Member Posts: 174
    @subtledoctor Lot of good information in this article here: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/487504-children-arent-immune-to-coronavirus-but-theyve-largely-been

    The problem isn't that children aren't as susceptible to the virus as other age groups, it's that they can still be carriers. Regardless of the fact that it is possible for children to get the virus, which means that they can transmit it like anyone else, its also possible that a child is just carrying a piece of virus on them, even if they aren't sick.

    That's the case for anyone, really. The virus can live on surfaces for up to three days. All it takes is a piece of the virus to latch onto a backpack, which then latches onto a hand, onto a desk. A susceptible adult touches that desk, brings it home and two weeks later they test positive. That's why reducing massive congregations of people, regardless of age and susceptibility, is massively important.

    jjstraka34ProontKamigoroshiThacoBell
  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,962
    edited March 2020
    Fandraxx wrote: »
    New York's bigger problem is gonna be that De Blasio is hell-bent on keeping schools open (for whatever reason). Even if children (and young adults) seem to be the group least effected by this, they can, and likely will, still carry the disease on them. Children will still go to school if it's open, which is why it's essential to mandate that they be closed.

    There is strong evidence that children are not susceptible to the virus. “They have no symptoms but they are still carriers” is pure speculation. I’m not aware of any evidence of children transmitting Covid-19 to adults. Yes, it happens a lot with the flu, but at risk of sounding like a broken record, this isn’t like the flu. There is some evidence, from Hong Kong and Singapore, that school closures did nothing to flatten the curve. It is plain fact that closing schools in NYC will be immensely, immensely disruptive, not just to parents in general but specifically for health care workers who need to be treating patients with the disease. DeBlasio has been right in keeping schools open, unless and until contrary data makes itself known.

    Unfortunately the Mayor’s office just bowed to pressure stemming from fear and hysteria, and just closed all schools for over a million kids, for the next 5 weeks minimum. This is going to make an already-hard situation a lot harder, and for the life of me I can’t see any benefit...*

    * If anyone has data that show otherwise, of course that would be good to know. Really the biggest problem we’re facing is a lack of good data about what are and aren’t effective measures to keep people healthy.

    This disease is highly highly contagious. Both airborne in particles tiny enough to penetrate n95 masks and remain on surfaces.

    Children in schools are in close proximity to each other and aren't particularly cautious even when you ask them nicely to be. Schools are petri dishes basically with close proximity, under-exposed (but strong immune systems). Children will get the virus and not notice and then take it home and pass to their parents and grandparents who might die from the disease that might only be a minor inconvenience to a child.

    This will be hard but that's a separate issue to keeping people safe.

  • smeagolheartsmeagolheart Member Posts: 7,962
    edited March 2020
    Corona-virus-covid-19---a-critical-care-doctors-explanation

    Hope this is legit info, seems real but you never know I guess.

    He lists his sources from this on his website:
    http://iatro.net/f/corona-virus-covid-19---a-critical-care-doctors-explanation

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2020
    The user and all related content has been deleted.

    Balrog99
  • Grond0Grond0 Member Posts: 6,916
    edited March 2020
    I agree the evidence is clear that children can get the disease (though they do seem to do so at a lower rate, as well as being less affected when they do get it). Whether that level of resistance means children are not significant in transmitting the disease is still an open question for further research.

    Children could also potentially act as physical carriers, though the extent of that can be significantly reduced by following good hygiene - that's likely to be more difficult to implement for children though.

    Part of the rationale for the UK not to have mandated school closures yet (unlike most European countries) is that the risk of transmitting infection needs to be balanced against other risks and costs. For instance, children staying at home would be likely to divert some much-needed healthcare staff from their jobs. It would also be likely to increase the amount of contact with grandparents and hence risk infection to a much more vulnerable group.

    However, it seems pretty clear that school closures will follow at some point in the coming weeks even in the UK. The objective is to time that closure at the appropriate point to flatten the curve of the developing infections. When they do come closures will probably be for a minimum of a month.

  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,616
    About the societal shock effect of school closure, from TPM. Based on alot of the behavior of our citizenry over the weekend (including massive crowds at Disney World tonight, as they don't close til tomorrow), this is is well worth mulling over:

    You’ve likely seen this referenced in a number of emails I’ve posted. But I wanted to draw it together in a single post because to me it is a significant piece of information.

    The decision to close schools involves a complex social and epidemiological calculus. But the act of closing schools itself seems to play a decisive role in public messaging. Populations don’t move into a true crisis footing until they hear that school systems are closing. Then they do.

    I have spent recent days reading numerous reader emails about this. It is not a scientific or statistically representative sample. But it is anecdotal information that is consistent over a broad geographic range and in many demographic contexts. When you think about it, it is hardly surprising. A large percentage of the population is made up of people with school age children or children themselves. For them it is an immediate and intense impact on their daily lives. It gets their attention. The number of people affected secondarily is also large. Schooling is one of the biggest and most deeply socially integrated activities in our society. It’s extremely rare for schools to close other than for very brief closures after natural disasters. It sends a decisive signal about the seriousness of the situation.

    Most of you who are reading this are TPM Readers who are by definition very high consumption news readers. The great majority of Americans only have a much more limited connections to the news, certainly to political and hard news where this information has been on a constant signal for a couple weeks. Lots of things don’t break through. Schools closing breaks through with a vengeance.

    Based on what we’re seeing people with access to data will likely be able to do studies which examine the progression between school closure announcements and drop offs in vehicular traffic and public transportation density, purchase surges in grocery stores and intense drop off for small businesses in the entertainment and service sector.

    I want to be clear in writing this that I am not arguing that we should be closing schools to get everyone’s attention or because of this signaling effect. I’m simply describing an observable social impact.

    Grond0ProontBalrog99ThacoBell
  • CahirCahir Member, Moderator, Translator (NDA) Posts: 2,656
    Polish prime minister declared state of emergency over coronavirus. All borders are closed, any Polish national that wants to go back to Poland needs to undergo a 14-day quarantine. Schools are closed, public events banned, everyone stock up food, toilet paper and all other vital products. At the moment there are over 120 confirmed cases of corona in Poland with 3 fatalities. It doesn't look well...

    KamigoroshiArdanis
  • jjstraka34jjstraka34 Member Posts: 9,616
    Cahir wrote: »
    Polish prime minister declared state of emergency over coronavirus. All borders are closed, any Polish national that wants to go back to Poland needs to undergo a 14-day quarantine. Schools are closed, public events banned, everyone stock up food, toilet paper and all other vital products. At the moment there are over 120 confirmed cases of corona in Poland with 3 fatalities. It doesn't look well...

    The fact that the rest of the world and all of corporate America are taking such drastic measures is STILL not kicking in for some people here in the United States. The amount of people still insisting it's "just the flu" is, at this point, just mind-blowing. I imagine no one in Europe who has eyes and ears has the luxury of taking such a ridiculous position anymore. Either every medical expert in the world is dead wrong, or these people are about to get hit by the biggest shock to what they think they know in their lives.

    ThacoBell
  • BelleSorciereBelleSorciere Member Posts: 2,125
    jjstraka34 wrote: »
    Cahir wrote: »
    Polish prime minister declared state of emergency over coronavirus. All borders are closed, any Polish national that wants to go back to Poland needs to undergo a 14-day quarantine. Schools are closed, public events banned, everyone stock up food, toilet paper and all other vital products. At the moment there are over 120 confirmed cases of corona in Poland with 3 fatalities. It doesn't look well...

    The fact that the rest of the world and all of corporate America are taking such drastic measures is STILL not kicking in for some people here in the United States. The amount of people still insisting it's "just the flu" is, at this point, just mind-blowing. I imagine no one in Europe who has eyes and ears has the luxury of taking such a ridiculous position anymore. Either every medical expert in the world is dead wrong, or these people are about to get hit by the biggest shock to what they think they know in their lives.

    Part of it is that in a lot of places, it's barely been felt. My local grocery store has certainly been hit hard by people in crisis mode, but not to the extent that it looks much worse than, say, July 3rd. While I was out the only out of the ordinary things were the people I saw wearing masks and possibly gloves. This store is under 50 miles from its counterpart in Kirkland, WA, where the shelves have been stripped bare.

    The response to this isn't really something to critique on the individual level. There is a plan in place, although I agree the authorities took too long to implement it. But for most people in the US, including a lot of people in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties, things haven't yet changed much beyond business as usual.

    Schools are closed tomorrow, and that's definitely going to make an impact. But... better than worrying about what people are thinking, focus on what the government is or is not doing.

    Also, pretty much no one has a proper context for what's happening outside of fiction - and fiction (especially film, like Contagion) tends toward extremely lethal diseases that can be cured very quickly through heroic action. Plus the media and government have not been entirely informative about what's happening. The reporting on Life Care Center was not particularly thorough until someone was finally able to get some more numbers out to the public - such as how the number of deaths had spiked dramatically starting February 18th. Or how Life Care Center was way behind the curve on even trying to deal with this situation, almost to the point of apathy. To the point of 70 employees being exposed and quarantined and a few dozen residents dead as their illness wasn't taken seriously.

    I see a vital need to keep people informed, let them know what they need to do to be as safe as possible, and please please please don't try to panic everyone. Hopefully the US will improve on this in the coming week.

    Proont
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