@Balrog99 "it's 'kick the shit out of somebody different than me so I can feel better'ism."
Um, you DO know that what you just described is racism when applied to an ethnicity, right? Its predjudiced behaviour against someone who belongs to a different group than you, someone different. In this case, its because the person was Asian. Racism.
No, racism is forcing Asians to leave the country, or into concentration camps, or groups of people destroying their shops/restaurants. What you're describing is one person being an asshole.
All racists are assholes but not all assholes are racists.
Whether it is racist or not hardly concerns me. It's semantics as far as what the consequences will be, which is that Asian-Americans are going to be more singled out, stigmatized and then god only knows what as this gets worse. So if people feel better calling it "assholism" for the moment, as long as they agree that yeah, this is an effort to shift blame at the expense of the treatment of a certain ethnicity, you can call it "penguin rice noodles" for all I care.
A few new restrictions were announced in the UK today about the way public ceremonies should be held. That means attendance at weddings is now limited to the couple, a priest/registrar and 2 witnesses - and those 5 should practice social distancing, i.e. maintain a 2 yard gap. That could lead to a problem when the priest says: "you may now kiss the bride" .
Another issue, which has been discussed in the UK in the last few days, relates to antibody testing. One problem with the current test for the presence of the disease is it's relatively slow, relatively costly and doesn't tell you whether someone has had the disease and recovered. While it's great for tracking the progress of active clusters and helping decide on quarantine measures for those that have come into contact with the disease, it's not so great in assessing the overall progress of the disease through the population and reviewing whether individuals are likely to have immunity.
Antibody tests won't be available in large numbers in the immediate future, but should be available in time to help before the current outbreak runs its course. That should still be pretty useful, for instance in deciding whether it would be safe for healthcare workers to return to work following a quarantine.
Our courier just dropped off a laptop someone was sending back in. He handed me his digital pad and the stylus, which I used to sign my name, then sat back down....
...then realized I should probably go to the break room sink and scrub up to my elbows. So I did. I may be a little sharp-edged from time to time, stubborn even, but I am not *stupid*.
From the sink, I could see him walk back out to his car, get in, and drive off. I guess he thinks I am clear.
Chancellor Angela Merkel and the state premiers want to discuss possible curfews in the corona crisis this Sunday. This reported SWR on Thursday, citing the Baden-Württemberg Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens). Several deputy heads of government had threatened curfews on Thursday. "It depends on the population whether we need to take more stringent measures," Kretschmann told the SWR. The background is that many Germans do not respond to calls to keep their distance from others.
I swear... it would be a godsend if the whole population suddenly decides to become introverts overnight. Any other countries around here having things like "corona parties" becoming a major problem? *ugh*
We have to reuse one disposable face mask per person per shift (only for contact with the same Covid19 or Influenza patient or cohort, of course, but it's still difficult to put them off and on again without risking contamination) because people have been stealing supplies.
Please report anyone selling masks from dubious sources. You don't need face masks at home. But your nurses and doctors need them.
We have to reuse one disposable face mask per person per shift (only for contact with the same Covid19 or Influenza patient or cohort, of course, but it's still difficult to put them off and on again without risking contamination) because people have been stealing supplies.
Please report anyone selling masks from dubious sources. You don't need face masks at home. But your nurses and doctors need them.
This can't be repeated enough. Medical workers in the US are now literally being told to use scarves and bandannas in lieu of actual supplies:
We have to reuse one disposable face mask per person per shift (only for contact with the same Covid19 or Influenza patient or cohort, of course, but it's still difficult to put them off and on again without risking contamination) because people have been stealing supplies.
Please report anyone selling masks from dubious sources. You don't need face masks at home. But your nurses and doctors need them.
This can't be repeated enough. Medical workers in the US are now literally being told to use scarves and bandannas in lieu of actual supplies:
And as mentioned in the other thread, the President is encouraging states to bid against each other AND the federal government for limited resources. While we're bidding on the extremely stressed supply chain he's out antagonizing China which IS the supply chain for a lot of the world's medical equipment.
We need supplies in America now. It's coming. It's in progress. We're leaderless, adrift, and without supplies.
Must admit I am surprised that I can find no mention in this thread, given that this is a gaming site, that the worlds largest gaming conference/junket/whatever E3 got cancelled in the last week or so.
Re. Covid-19 parties. Try reading the short story "Masque of the Red Death" by Edgar Allen Poe available for free on Project Gutenberg here. FWIW I thought there was an old TSR Ravenloft module based on this story but I don't seem to be able to find whether I'm right or the name of it.
E3's condition was rather poor even before the outbreak. What with big companies such as Sony leaving them one after another. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they'll shut down for good.
In the UK we have similar people but added to that some are trying to take advantage of the elderly who are following government advice and self isolating. What these particular scumbags are doing is they are offering to do the shopping for the seniors and then just walking off with their money and/or their plastic.
On more positive notes the world renowned Jodrell Bank radio telescope team at their discovery (visitor centre) have started this Science Learning At Home series online, for people stuck at home due to the virus. Add to that a number of famous musicians are posting free music via social media including this very well known doctor of astrophysics.
Earlier in the week here in Little Rock, Arkansas someone was going door to door saying they were from the CDC wanting to charge for doing home screening tests.
@Balrog99 "it's 'kick the shit out of somebody different than me so I can feel better'ism."
Um, you DO know that what you just described is racism when applied to an ethnicity, right? Its predjudiced behaviour against someone who belongs to a different group than you, someone different. In this case, its because the person was Asian. Racism.
No, racism is forcing Asians to leave the country, or into concentration camps, or groups of people destroying their shops/restaurants. What you're describing is one person being an asshole.
What? Why do you think that its only racism when its extreme?
Literal definition of racism "Discrimination or prejudice based on race." The severity is not a factor.
Most of the advice the UK government is relying on to take decisions has been published (see here) and that makes pretty clear that the requirements for quarantines, social distancing etc are likely to last a minimum of a year - in order to spread out the progress of the disease sufficiently to avoid health services becoming swamped. If an effective vaccine is not available as soon as realistically possible, that period would be longer.
@Balrog99 "it's 'kick the shit out of somebody different than me so I can feel better'ism."
Um, you DO know that what you just described is racism when applied to an ethnicity, right? Its predjudiced behaviour against someone who belongs to a different group than you, someone different. In this case, its because the person was Asian. Racism.
No, racism is forcing Asians to leave the country, or into concentration camps, or groups of people destroying their shops/restaurants. What you're describing is one person being an asshole.
What? Why do you think that its only racism when its extreme?
Literal definition of racism "Discrimination or prejudice based on race." The severity is not a factor.
It's not based solely on 'race' though. It's based on the idiotic conception that certain people have a higher chance of harboring a potentially deadly disease! I've heard that Italians are being targeted, too. Italian isn't a race last time I checked.
I went out for a walk with my daughter earlier today (it was 60F this morning for a while). My neighbor across the street was out so we talked for a bit. He works in the emergency room at Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit. He told me they've had a lot of people testing positive now. Interestingly, he said that many of them are not sneezing, coughing and don't even have sore throats. Some of them came in only with headaches (not sure why you'd go to the ER for a headache but maybe they're severe). He said the only symptom everybody had who tested positive was a fever.
FYI - there are now some drive through tests available in Michigan.
What is it with American experts and the number 5? Tornados are rated from 1 to 5 and apparently so are the severity of pandemics. Note, the information on this wikipedia page has changed since last week (and still appears to be wrong - covid should really be a 4).
FWIW, if you really want to make yourself depressed, I have created an Excel spreadsheet to illustrate what the worldwide death-toll could be by the time this outbreak has finished. It is based on 3 things -
The worlds total population (currently 7.8 billion)
The percentage of this population that gets infected
The percentage of infected people who die due to the illness
The answers that are calculated are sobering. In a normal year seasonal influenza kills between 290,000 and 650,000. The smallest outcome I came up with for covid (at 5% of the world population catching it and with a mortality rate of just half a percent) is 1,950,000.
I have put this spreadsheet up on dropbox and will delete it on the 28th March (i.e. in 1 week). Here is the link.
What is it with American experts and the number 5? Tornados are rated from 1 to 5 and apparently so are the severity of pandemics. Note, the information on this wikipedia page has changed since last week (and still appears to be wrong - covid should really be a 4).
FWIW, if you really want to make yourself depressed, I have created an Excel spreadsheet to illustrate what the worldwide death-toll could be by the time this outbreak has finished. It is based on 3 things -
The worlds total population (currently 7.8 billion)
The percentage of this population that gets infected
The percentage of infected people who die due to the illness
The answers that are calculated are sobering. In a normal year seasonal influenza kills between 290,000 and 650,000. The smallest outcome I came up with for covid (at 5% of the world population catching it and with a mortality rate of just half a percent) is 1,950,000.
I have put this spreadsheet up on dropbox and will delete it on the 28th March (i.e. in 1 week). Here is the link.
TR
Both 5% catching it and 0.5% mortality are low estimates unless there's a medical breakthrough of some sort. The death toll is likely to be higher. Even China can't keep a lid on this forever. It's not going to be eradicated without a vaccine and people aren't going to stay in their homes for months or years. Even if they did, with no vaccine it's just going to start back up again.
I did say that was the lowest. The spreadsheet shows outcomes for percentages of population from 5% to 100% in 5% steps. Also the percentage of infected people who die used goes from half of 1% to 10% in half percent steps. From what we are currently being told they are looking at between 50% and 55% of the world population catching it and a death rate for these infected people of between 1% and 2%. So I created that spreadsheet with plenty of leeway for actuality. Good job I didn't do one for a bacterium Yersinia pestis pandemic. If we had one as serious as the black death of the 14th century we would probably run out of antibiotics because that disease had a death rate of around 33% of the population of europe at the time.
This is a useful article to keep the potential deaths from Covid-19 in perspective. The major reason why the UK accelerated and intensified their proposed actions to check the disease was the modelling predicting that the intended approach would lead to about 250,000 deaths.
In a perfect scenario where suppression works well and an effective vaccine is available as early as possible, that could be reduced down to more like 20,000 deaths. However, those figures don't take into account deaths that would have occurred anyway. Given that Covid-19 is far more lethal for the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions there will be a fair number in that group. I tried to do a bit of research on that last week, but found there were too many unknowns. For instance the average number of deaths in the 80-84 cohort is a bit over 6%, but it will be precisely those most likely to die anyway that will tend to die from Covid-19. Theoretically that could mean the proportion that would have died anyway could be anywhere from 10% to about 80%, though I suspect it would be much closer to the former figure.
In addition though, there has been little modelling so far of the impact of the various actions. It's well known already that social isolation is bad for your health, as is lack of exercise - and the social distancing measures will have an indirect impact on deaths through both of those. Another indirect impact relates to things not being done as a result of the concentration on Covid-19. For instance my mum had a replacement hip operation done a few months ago, in an attempt to be able to maintain her role in caring for my dad. Such operations are described as 'quality of life' (and are currently not being performed), but will certainly have an impact on deaths as well as quality of life.
There's a further indirect effect likely through the longer term impact on the economy. Following the 2008 financial crisis and the cost of the bailout, the UK had a long period of austerity - the process of reversing that has only recently been started. In the last few years the very long term trend for longer life has halted and one theory for why that is relates to the impact of austerity (lower charitable funding, fewer public service workers, lower benefits). If the current measures to deal with Covid-19 are maintained, their cost is likely to be much greater than those measures used following the financial crisis - so we might expect another very long period of austerity with all that entails.
The above is essentially talking about deaths, but there's also a wider question about quality of life and how you weigh that in the scale. I fully appreciate that is a really difficult thing to discuss, but it is the sort of question that is regularly addressed - particularly in the medical field. Examples of that for instance are to what extreme you take resuscitation attempts, when you switch off life support and whether you make new (and costly) drugs widely available.
There is no 'good' answer to how we deal with Covid-19, but if we're to find one of the 'least-worst' options, we'll need to give a lot more consideration to the wider implications of the disease rather than concentrating too much on the question of how many people will die while infected.
Comments
No, racism is forcing Asians to leave the country, or into concentration camps, or groups of people destroying their shops/restaurants. What you're describing is one person being an asshole.
Whether it is racist or not hardly concerns me. It's semantics as far as what the consequences will be, which is that Asian-Americans are going to be more singled out, stigmatized and then god only knows what as this gets worse. So if people feel better calling it "assholism" for the moment, as long as they agree that yeah, this is an effort to shift blame at the expense of the treatment of a certain ethnicity, you can call it "penguin rice noodles" for all I care.
Another issue, which has been discussed in the UK in the last few days, relates to antibody testing. One problem with the current test for the presence of the disease is it's relatively slow, relatively costly and doesn't tell you whether someone has had the disease and recovered. While it's great for tracking the progress of active clusters and helping decide on quarantine measures for those that have come into contact with the disease, it's not so great in assessing the overall progress of the disease through the population and reviewing whether individuals are likely to have immunity.
Antibody tests won't be available in large numbers in the immediate future, but should be available in time to help before the current outbreak runs its course. That should still be pretty useful, for instance in deciding whether it would be safe for healthcare workers to return to work following a quarantine.
...then realized I should probably go to the break room sink and scrub up to my elbows. So I did. I may be a little sharp-edged from time to time, stubborn even, but I am not *stupid*.
From the sink, I could see him walk back out to his car, get in, and drive off. I guess he thinks I am clear.
Please report anyone selling masks from dubious sources. You don't need face masks at home. But your nurses and doctors need them.
This can't be repeated enough. Medical workers in the US are now literally being told to use scarves and bandannas in lieu of actual supplies:
It is such a shame, but it's for the best.
And as mentioned in the other thread, the President is encouraging states to bid against each other AND the federal government for limited resources. While we're bidding on the extremely stressed supply chain he's out antagonizing China which IS the supply chain for a lot of the world's medical equipment.
We need supplies in America now. It's coming. It's in progress. We're leaderless, adrift, and without supplies.
Re. Covid-19 parties. Try reading the short story "Masque of the Red Death" by Edgar Allen Poe available for free on Project Gutenberg here. FWIW I thought there was an old TSR Ravenloft module based on this story but I don't seem to be able to find whether I'm right or the name of it.
TR
Test-kit scams fused with robbery attempts targeting the elderly? Just lovely...
Assholes like that should be shot. No, I'm not kidding. What a bunch of scumbags...
On more positive notes the world renowned Jodrell Bank radio telescope team at their discovery (visitor centre) have started this Science Learning At Home series online, for people stuck at home due to the virus. Add to that a number of famous musicians are posting free music via social media including this very well known doctor of astrophysics.
TR
What? Why do you think that its only racism when its extreme?
Literal definition of racism "Discrimination or prejudice based on race." The severity is not a factor.
If people die he should face murder charges. He should face some kind of charges regardless. Reckless endangerment something like that.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-entire-state-legislature-urged-to-self-quarantine-after-state-senator-tests-positive-coronavirus/
It's not based solely on 'race' though. It's based on the idiotic conception that certain people have a higher chance of harboring a potentially deadly disease! I've heard that Italians are being targeted, too. Italian isn't a race last time I checked.
FYI - there are now some drive through tests available in Michigan.
https://www.michiganradio.org/post/drive-thru-coronavirus-test-sites-pop-michigan-they-cant-test-everyone
Truish but in that case it's Xenophobia (nothing to do with a certain warrior princess though) aka fear of foreigners!
TR
FWIW, if you really want to make yourself depressed, I have created an Excel spreadsheet to illustrate what the worldwide death-toll could be by the time this outbreak has finished. It is based on 3 things -
The answers that are calculated are sobering. In a normal year seasonal influenza kills between 290,000 and 650,000. The smallest outcome I came up with for covid (at 5% of the world population catching it and with a mortality rate of just half a percent) is 1,950,000.
I have put this spreadsheet up on dropbox and will delete it on the 28th March (i.e. in 1 week). Here is the link.
TR
Both 5% catching it and 0.5% mortality are low estimates unless there's a medical breakthrough of some sort. The death toll is likely to be higher. Even China can't keep a lid on this forever. It's not going to be eradicated without a vaccine and people aren't going to stay in their homes for months or years. Even if they did, with no vaccine it's just going to start back up again.
TR
In a perfect scenario where suppression works well and an effective vaccine is available as early as possible, that could be reduced down to more like 20,000 deaths. However, those figures don't take into account deaths that would have occurred anyway. Given that Covid-19 is far more lethal for the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions there will be a fair number in that group. I tried to do a bit of research on that last week, but found there were too many unknowns. For instance the average number of deaths in the 80-84 cohort is a bit over 6%, but it will be precisely those most likely to die anyway that will tend to die from Covid-19. Theoretically that could mean the proportion that would have died anyway could be anywhere from 10% to about 80%, though I suspect it would be much closer to the former figure.
In addition though, there has been little modelling so far of the impact of the various actions. It's well known already that social isolation is bad for your health, as is lack of exercise - and the social distancing measures will have an indirect impact on deaths through both of those. Another indirect impact relates to things not being done as a result of the concentration on Covid-19. For instance my mum had a replacement hip operation done a few months ago, in an attempt to be able to maintain her role in caring for my dad. Such operations are described as 'quality of life' (and are currently not being performed), but will certainly have an impact on deaths as well as quality of life.
There's a further indirect effect likely through the longer term impact on the economy. Following the 2008 financial crisis and the cost of the bailout, the UK had a long period of austerity - the process of reversing that has only recently been started. In the last few years the very long term trend for longer life has halted and one theory for why that is relates to the impact of austerity (lower charitable funding, fewer public service workers, lower benefits). If the current measures to deal with Covid-19 are maintained, their cost is likely to be much greater than those measures used following the financial crisis - so we might expect another very long period of austerity with all that entails.
The above is essentially talking about deaths, but there's also a wider question about quality of life and how you weigh that in the scale. I fully appreciate that is a really difficult thing to discuss, but it is the sort of question that is regularly addressed - particularly in the medical field. Examples of that for instance are to what extreme you take resuscitation attempts, when you switch off life support and whether you make new (and costly) drugs widely available.
There is no 'good' answer to how we deal with Covid-19, but if we're to find one of the 'least-worst' options, we'll need to give a lot more consideration to the wider implications of the disease rather than concentrating too much on the question of how many people will die while infected.