I've become a big fan of Nichols, the main subject in that story, during the Trump era. And reading his columns. Probably someone I don't agree with on a lot of issues from social issues to economic ones, but someone with a lot of personal integrity.
Can't find a YouTube link for this, Trump Train terrorists harassing a woman.
"Trump mob brandish maces and attempts to start fights with woman, when she tries to present evidence to Police they dismiss her." https://tuckbot.tv/#/watch/jmrxuy
@DinoDin - This is sort of why I'm worried about election night. I'll freely admit I didnt realize it could be this bad, but If you assume the correlative effect of what causes FL, GA and NC to all go Red tomorrow, then (according to 538 at least) - AZ is probably red and PA is a toss up.
I know Biden has a really good chance of winning and Trump has a poor chance of winning - but like I said the other day: I will not be remotely shocked if Trump wins FL, NC and GA come tomorrow.
Edit - On catastrophe adverted: The federal judge responsible for ruling on the 125,000 drive through votes in TX has dismissed the case. They will be counted.
Yeah, North Carolina is going to be the state to watch early. It's the one with the highest odds of being called early of those three. And if Trump loses it, the election is over.
@DinoDin - This is sort of why I'm worried about election night. I'll freely admit I didnt realize it could be this bad, but If you assume the correlative effect of what causes FL, GA and NC to all go Red tomorrow, then (according to 538 at least) - AZ is probably red and PA is a toss up.
I know Biden has a really good chance of winning and Trump has a poor chance of winning - but like I said the other day: I will not be remotely shocked if Trump wins FL, NC and GA come tomorrow.
Edit - On catastrophe adverted: The federal judge responsible for ruling on the 125,000 drive through votes in TX has dismissed the case. They will be counted.
I don’t believe that is right at all. If it is true, and I believe it is, that Donald already gave up on Wisconsin because he knows that he can’t win, even if he wins ALL of the states that are up in the air, he STILL has to win Pennsylvania. Joe Biden can win without Pennsylvania if all of the polls are even remotely true. As far as I can tell there is no path to reelection for Donald without Pennsylvania. Here is the rub, we have early absentee voting and at least one county has already said that they will not count the absentee ballots until Nov 4th. Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes are the big punch and with as many absentee ballots that have already been cast, that cannot even begin to be counted until tomorrow, eh well, they are already talking lawsuits. Don’t expect anything but chaos this week, unless all of the votes counted tomorrow crush Donald.
There is a funny scenario where Biden can win a narrow EC victory while even losing PA and almost every other swing state. Biden would then have to win Arizona, which has polled roughly equal to PA. So it's not outrageous. And then win either the contested congressional district in Nebraska or Maine. Putting him at 270 or 271 if he wins both.
Not a likely scenario, but it just goes to show that Trump's victory requires that he sweep all of the toss up states.
99% of the talk about the polls being wrong has been assuming that Trump has secret support that isn't being picked up in the data. Has anyone considered that maybe BIDEN is the one whose support is being undercounted?? Why is it any less plausible that there are scores more suburban woman going to the ballot box this year than secret Trump voters lying to pollsters en masse?? Polling errors don't only go in one direction.
I read an article that was interviewing the head of the Trafalgar Group (the conservative polling outlet whose polls are the only thing keeping Trump in the game in Pennsylvania) and he expounded on why there may be secret Trump voters, which he builds into his methodology. The interviewer asked him if the same phenomena could go both way, and if there could be secret Biden voters, he just flat-out said "no" and didn't even offer a cursory reason as to why that would be. His bias was so clear to me in that moment. He is CONVINCED there are shy Trump voters, but can't conceive there would be shy Biden voters, because his world-view demands that conservatives are an aggrieved minority who can't voice their opinions. The truck parades around the country would like a word with that theory.
If you are telling me I should believe hundreds of people in each polling sample are purposefully lying to pollsters, I'll present to you the theory there for every one of those people, there is a wife whose husband is a die hard Trump supporter who can't stand the guy, doesn't want to cause trouble in her marriage, and when she is behind that curtain where no one but her knows, is pulling the lever for Biden. We can do this all day.
IIRC, one of Trafalgar Group's way of estimating if there were shy Trump voters is to ask a potential voter how their family or friends are voting. If that person says they're voting for Trump, he lumps them down as a shy Trump voter in the polls. It's really something...
Trafalgar accidentally posted their crosstabs to a recent poll, and it was nuts. Had Trump in the 30s with Black voters and taking something like 25% of Democrats. Just real looney bin stuff.
Trafalgar was very accurate in their 2016 prediction but waaaaaaaaaaay off in 2018 (I think they had it like R+2 rather than the D+8 it ended up being).
IIRC, one of Trafalgar Group's way of estimating if there were shy Trump voters is to ask a potential voter how their family or friends are voting. If that person says they're voting for Trump, he lumps them down as a shy Trump voter in the polls. It's really something...
Trafalgar accidentally posted their crosstabs to a recent poll, and it was nuts. Had Trump in the 30s with Black voters and taking something like 25% of Democrats. Just real looney bin stuff.
Trafalgar was very accurate in their 2016 prediction but waaaaaaaaaaay off in 2018 (I think they had it like R+2 rather than the D+8 it ended up being).
I didn't understand what that line meant in the article when I skimmed over it, but now I see. He simply ASSUMES since this person is in a social group that is pro-Trump, they are also pro-Trump. So how can he explain why they wouldn't lie about that as well?? The idea is that they are "protecting" themselves from some amorphous liberal retaliation as a result of their answer. But they AREN'T worried about their family facing it??
In general Dems win when there's high turnout, and there's record turnout already.
While that's a general rule, a winkle this year is Trump's fascist enablers. I would not be shocked if we have deliberate election fraud in red states because if Trump does down they might go down for their blind obedience. We can also be sure of Trump supporters blocking access to polls and assaulting voters . It's going to be nuts in Trump's America on election day.
People are probably going to be killed, I mean we've already had the MAGAbomber, Kyle Rittenhouse, and Charlottesville. The proud boys have been told to stand by, right.
Understand that the total votes in 2016 was around 135 million. If we are looking at a possibility of 165 million, Biden is going to mop the floor with him:
The Cook Political Report has the Dems picking up 10-15 House seats tomorrow. Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, two heavyweights of PA politics, were openly worried about PA on this night 4 years ago at Hillary's last rally. They apparently aren't tonight. By this time tomorrow, we'll know alot more just based on where the votes that are banked are coming in from in each state.
4 years ago, I saw Trump coming down the track in the GOP primary, and predicted he would win that. I didn't want to believe he could possibly become President, and was as shell-shocked as anyone on Election Night. No predictions this time, just a fervent hope that we can leave this darkness behind us and move on from this nightmare. The American people, as a whole, are definitely speaking pretty loudly about something. I can't imagine HOW it could be a vote of confidence in where we are as a country. Let it be a repudiation.
The Cook Political Report has the Dems picking up 10-15 House seats tomorrow. Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, two heavyweights of PA politics, were openly worried about PA on this night 4 years ago at Hillary's last rally. They apparently aren't tonight. By this time tomorrow, we'll know alot more just based on where the votes that are banked are coming in from in each state.
I respect both of their intelligences, but one grabbed me bum at the farm show, gotta question his character.
My stress is not over how the nation will vote tomorrow, or have already voted, it is the flim flam he may come up with and how the gun toting, crotch scratching Neanderthals will react this week that bothers me. At the store today I asked the woman at the meat counter if it bothered her that people were not wearing masks, she said, Not really. They can choose if they are worried about their own health. Seriously, soooooooooo.... somehow when they gave you your lobotomy you were still able to cut meat and read numbers after? You really lucked out! Of course I didn’t say that, can’t imagine hurting someone like that, but our conversation ended dead.
It is not a choice between the two, not even a little, it is how that spineless little fraction of a man has manipulated the country, especially the uneducated, the last four years. Don can’t win, he can only cheat. Something he has proven exceptional at.
I've been spending a lot of time over on Reddit and after getting into a long argument about COVID statistics, it makes me miss the better-moderated atmosphere over here... As strongly as we argue, name-calling isn't part of the local culture. The standards for respect are lower on Reddit.
I think it's fair to say this thread took off with the election of Donald Trump in 2016 (and to a lesser extent, Brexit). I used to post almost exclusively on liberal blogs, but my interest in Infinity Engine mods lead me here, and it's become almost my exclusive place for actually WRITING my political thoughts over the past four years.
Tomorrow (or today now, as Dixville Notch has come in 5-0 for Biden) feels like a culmination. I don't know that my fervor will be the same if Biden wins, I don't know I can handle another 4 years of Trump AND follow it as closely as I have been. I've had heated rivalries, found like-minded souls, and played at least some part in convincing a certain resident of Michigan to bail on the Orange Wonder. But I'd like to say thank you to everyone, even the ones who made me want to put my fist through my laptop while I was typing responses. I don't know how I would have coped without the thread.
I've had heated rivalries, found like-minded souls, and played at least some part in convincing a certain resident of Michigan to bail on the Orange Wonder.
I'm easy. All you had to do was whisper Pizzagate and Qanon in my ear and let my inquisitive mind take care of the rest... ?
Five hours of sleep is all one could have realistically hoped for the night before. Don't put too much stock into the body language of how campaigns are talking on TV. I still remember in 2004 that the Kerry AND Bush camps thought Kerry was the winner through most of the day that year based on exit polling. That didn't work out for Kerry. Given that so many people have voted early, exit polls may be useless. More Republicans (significantly more) are going to vote today in person. Because most Democrats have already done so. Impossible to break down where this is until we get county by county breakdowns. Even if Trump wins Florida (which I think he probably will), the allocation of votes will likely tell us something about how other states will fall. Trump has a shitload of ground to make up in the next 10 hours based on the breakdown of early to in-person voting.
I had to wait 45 minutes to vote. First time ever I had to wait more than 15 minutes. If it's mostly Trumpers voting in person, this could be closer than I had originally thought.
No shenanigans at least. No Proud Boys bearing arms outside or anything. There was a cop car on station and one young dude wearing a Trump hat in line that shouldn't have been (not challenged - peacefully voted). Nothing else out of the ordinary. Whew!
I had to wait 45 minutes to vote. First time ever I had to wait more than 15 minutes. If it's mostly Trumpers voting in person, this could be closer than I had originally thought.
No shenanigans at least. No Proud Boys bearing arms outside or anything. There was a cop car on station and one young dude wearing a Trump hat in line that shouldn't have been (not challenged - peacefully voted). Nothing else out of the ordinary. Whew!
I voted today too.
Had a 30 second wait. In 2016, it was a 30 minute wait. I wouldnt put too much stock in singular events.
I didn't vote last time. I plan to this time. I tried to keep my head down this election but living in a battleground area of a battleground state means I was avoiding a Trump rally on my way to work at least once a month. At this point i'm just ready for everyone to stop caring about Pennsylvania again.
I don't feel like anything has been left on the table in this fight. I frankly don't think there is ANYONE who envisions a scenario where Biden isn't going to win the popular vote by 5 million-plus. If that STILL isn't enough to overcome this EC layout, then I just don't know anymore. I'll reiterate again that I am perfectly happy with the campaign Biden ran strategically. There is no way I would have done anything they didn't do. It was laser focused on the response to the pandemic. What other play was there to make??
An underrated state to watch in the early going is New Hampshire. It's rarely talked about it in the leadup coverage because its four electoral votes are so insignificant. But it is a bellwether. Clinton won it by 0.4% in 2016. And it was called super late because of that narrow margin. Obama won the state by 5.6% in 2012 and 9.7% in 2008. So you can see it tracks somewhat with the national popular vote.
It's a mostly rural state and it has a well run state election. Which means, unless it's extremely close again like in 2016, it's called early. IMO, Trump really can't afford to lose even a fraction of his voting margin from 2016. So if the state is called early and by a healthy margin for Biden, that's going to be a strong harbinger. The reverse is true as well.
Edit to add: In fact those three recent results give you a sense of what NH looks like under the three election scenarios: Narrow trump win, narrow Biden win, Biden blowout
None of this means anything yet, but it's hard not to fall into the mid-day rabbit hole on this stuff, when no one really knows anything:
1.) Some people in the Trump camp are telling reporters that their election day turnout operation in Pennsylvania is not up to snuff, and they need to make up a significant number of votes.
2.) The number of registered Republicans turning out in Florida IS high, but the question will be what percentage of them are seniors who are defecting to Biden. Non-affiliated voters are ALSO up, so the margin will be crucial.
3.) Texas is way, WAY closer than it should ever be for a Republican candidate.
Quick take for now?? MOST people have already voted. Despite the efforts to demonize it, the majority of the expected electorate did their business long before this morning. I'd venture to say less than 40% of total ballots are being cast in-person during this 12-hour stretch.
If Biden wins, it will be because of the revenge of suburban women, and because senior citizens can't see their grandkids. A combination of the story of every election SINCE Trump has been in office, and the new one created by the pandemic.
I'm nervous. I've cared a lot about past elections but this one is more urgent. I don't think I or my loved ones are in danger but I'm worried people will die in the coming days and weeks.
I'm predicting that Trump will declare victory on whatever grounds he can. I'm not sure if that will fizzle out or catch fire.
ABC has already started to blame Blacks as to why they are not getting behind Biden. Got to get the excuses out there quick I guess.
They're (ABC) are pretty much calling FL for Trump at this time, and they are saying that Biden hadn't engaged in the black voters in that state enough to flip it while contrasting the work Trump had done to get the Cuban vote for him.
It's not really a blame, just an explanation on how what is perceived to be a swing state that has caused issues in the past may not really be in play this time around.
I'm literally amazed that so many Americans saw what has happened the past four years and voted for more of it. More than one person sees this lying, divisive, asshole that has killed 230,000+ Americans while downplaying and screwing up a response to a deadly pandemic and thinks they want more of that. Hahahaha, ridiculous. My opinion of Americans is going way down, it's embarrassing to be one.
Comments
I've become a big fan of Nichols, the main subject in that story, during the Trump era. And reading his columns. Probably someone I don't agree with on a lot of issues from social issues to economic ones, but someone with a lot of personal integrity.
"Trump mob brandish maces and attempts to start fights with woman, when she tries to present evidence to Police they dismiss her."
https://tuckbot.tv/#/watch/jmrxuy
@DinoDin - This is sort of why I'm worried about election night. I'll freely admit I didnt realize it could be this bad, but If you assume the correlative effect of what causes FL, GA and NC to all go Red tomorrow, then (according to 538 at least) - AZ is probably red and PA is a toss up.
I know Biden has a really good chance of winning and Trump has a poor chance of winning - but like I said the other day: I will not be remotely shocked if Trump wins FL, NC and GA come tomorrow.
Edit - On catastrophe adverted: The federal judge responsible for ruling on the 125,000 drive through votes in TX has dismissed the case. They will be counted.
I don’t believe that is right at all. If it is true, and I believe it is, that Donald already gave up on Wisconsin because he knows that he can’t win, even if he wins ALL of the states that are up in the air, he STILL has to win Pennsylvania. Joe Biden can win without Pennsylvania if all of the polls are even remotely true. As far as I can tell there is no path to reelection for Donald without Pennsylvania. Here is the rub, we have early absentee voting and at least one county has already said that they will not count the absentee ballots until Nov 4th. Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes are the big punch and with as many absentee ballots that have already been cast, that cannot even begin to be counted until tomorrow, eh well, they are already talking lawsuits. Don’t expect anything but chaos this week, unless all of the votes counted tomorrow crush Donald.
Not a likely scenario, but it just goes to show that Trump's victory requires that he sweep all of the toss up states.
I read an article that was interviewing the head of the Trafalgar Group (the conservative polling outlet whose polls are the only thing keeping Trump in the game in Pennsylvania) and he expounded on why there may be secret Trump voters, which he builds into his methodology. The interviewer asked him if the same phenomena could go both way, and if there could be secret Biden voters, he just flat-out said "no" and didn't even offer a cursory reason as to why that would be. His bias was so clear to me in that moment. He is CONVINCED there are shy Trump voters, but can't conceive there would be shy Biden voters, because his world-view demands that conservatives are an aggrieved minority who can't voice their opinions. The truck parades around the country would like a word with that theory.
If you are telling me I should believe hundreds of people in each polling sample are purposefully lying to pollsters, I'll present to you the theory there for every one of those people, there is a wife whose husband is a die hard Trump supporter who can't stand the guy, doesn't want to cause trouble in her marriage, and when she is behind that curtain where no one but her knows, is pulling the lever for Biden. We can do this all day.
Trafalgar accidentally posted their crosstabs to a recent poll, and it was nuts. Had Trump in the 30s with Black voters and taking something like 25% of Democrats. Just real looney bin stuff.
Trafalgar was very accurate in their 2016 prediction but waaaaaaaaaaay off in 2018 (I think they had it like R+2 rather than the D+8 it ended up being).
I didn't understand what that line meant in the article when I skimmed over it, but now I see. He simply ASSUMES since this person is in a social group that is pro-Trump, they are also pro-Trump. So how can he explain why they wouldn't lie about that as well?? The idea is that they are "protecting" themselves from some amorphous liberal retaliation as a result of their answer. But they AREN'T worried about their family facing it??
While that's a general rule, a winkle this year is Trump's fascist enablers. I would not be shocked if we have deliberate election fraud in red states because if Trump does down they might go down for their blind obedience. We can also be sure of Trump supporters blocking access to polls and assaulting voters . It's going to be nuts in Trump's America on election day.
People are probably going to be killed, I mean we've already had the MAGAbomber, Kyle Rittenhouse, and Charlottesville. The proud boys have been told to stand by, right.
The Cook Political Report has the Dems picking up 10-15 House seats tomorrow. Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, two heavyweights of PA politics, were openly worried about PA on this night 4 years ago at Hillary's last rally. They apparently aren't tonight. By this time tomorrow, we'll know alot more just based on where the votes that are banked are coming in from in each state.
4 years ago, I saw Trump coming down the track in the GOP primary, and predicted he would win that. I didn't want to believe he could possibly become President, and was as shell-shocked as anyone on Election Night. No predictions this time, just a fervent hope that we can leave this darkness behind us and move on from this nightmare. The American people, as a whole, are definitely speaking pretty loudly about something. I can't imagine HOW it could be a vote of confidence in where we are as a country. Let it be a repudiation.
I respect both of their intelligences, but one grabbed me bum at the farm show, gotta question his character.
My stress is not over how the nation will vote tomorrow, or have already voted, it is the flim flam he may come up with and how the gun toting, crotch scratching Neanderthals will react this week that bothers me. At the store today I asked the woman at the meat counter if it bothered her that people were not wearing masks, she said, Not really. They can choose if they are worried about their own health. Seriously, soooooooooo.... somehow when they gave you your lobotomy you were still able to cut meat and read numbers after? You really lucked out! Of course I didn’t say that, can’t imagine hurting someone like that, but our conversation ended dead.
It is not a choice between the two, not even a little, it is how that spineless little fraction of a man has manipulated the country, especially the uneducated, the last four years. Don can’t win, he can only cheat. Something he has proven exceptional at.
Tomorrow (or today now, as Dixville Notch has come in 5-0 for Biden) feels like a culmination. I don't know that my fervor will be the same if Biden wins, I don't know I can handle another 4 years of Trump AND follow it as closely as I have been. I've had heated rivalries, found like-minded souls, and played at least some part in convincing a certain resident of Michigan to bail on the Orange Wonder. But I'd like to say thank you to everyone, even the ones who made me want to put my fist through my laptop while I was typing responses. I don't know how I would have coped without the thread.
I'm easy. All you had to do was whisper Pizzagate and Qanon in my ear and let my inquisitive mind take care of the rest... ?
I had to wait 45 minutes to vote. First time ever I had to wait more than 15 minutes. If it's mostly Trumpers voting in person, this could be closer than I had originally thought.
No shenanigans at least. No Proud Boys bearing arms outside or anything. There was a cop car on station and one young dude wearing a Trump hat in line that shouldn't have been (not challenged - peacefully voted). Nothing else out of the ordinary. Whew!
I voted today too.
Had a 30 second wait. In 2016, it was a 30 minute wait. I wouldnt put too much stock in singular events.
It's a mostly rural state and it has a well run state election. Which means, unless it's extremely close again like in 2016, it's called early. IMO, Trump really can't afford to lose even a fraction of his voting margin from 2016. So if the state is called early and by a healthy margin for Biden, that's going to be a strong harbinger. The reverse is true as well.
Edit to add: In fact those three recent results give you a sense of what NH looks like under the three election scenarios: Narrow trump win, narrow Biden win, Biden blowout
1.) Some people in the Trump camp are telling reporters that their election day turnout operation in Pennsylvania is not up to snuff, and they need to make up a significant number of votes.
2.) The number of registered Republicans turning out in Florida IS high, but the question will be what percentage of them are seniors who are defecting to Biden. Non-affiliated voters are ALSO up, so the margin will be crucial.
3.) Texas is way, WAY closer than it should ever be for a Republican candidate.
Quick take for now?? MOST people have already voted. Despite the efforts to demonize it, the majority of the expected electorate did their business long before this morning. I'd venture to say less than 40% of total ballots are being cast in-person during this 12-hour stretch.
If Biden wins, it will be because of the revenge of suburban women, and because senior citizens can't see their grandkids. A combination of the story of every election SINCE Trump has been in office, and the new one created by the pandemic.
I'm predicting that Trump will declare victory on whatever grounds he can. I'm not sure if that will fizzle out or catch fire.
Always could. You'd just have to pay the consequences. If there aren't any consequences, there isn't any power.
They're (ABC) are pretty much calling FL for Trump at this time, and they are saying that Biden hadn't engaged in the black voters in that state enough to flip it while contrasting the work Trump had done to get the Cuban vote for him.
It's not really a blame, just an explanation on how what is perceived to be a swing state that has caused issues in the past may not really be in play this time around.