Uhh - what? Unless I'm blind both that website and the NYT results show Biden up in VA still. By a few points, too. Where is he on track to lose?
Edit - NYT now shows him slightly behind, but their numbers appear to be behind your source's numbers - and those still look like a clear Biden victory.
Odd to be on about media inaccuracy and not adhere to the standard yourself.
Honestly, if Trump manages to win the electoral vote but fails to win the popular vote, I won't consider the United States federal government a legitimate regime. I'm not ashamed to admit that in advance. The entire premise of democracy is majority rule, and the fact that the EC creates a corrupt feedback loop (it gives power to certain states, who use it to preserve the EC) to stay in place doesn't make minority rule legitimate.
I accepted Trump's victory as legitimate last time, but when I think about the past 4 years, that policy was strictly out of custom and tradition; not right or wrong. I do not believe the majority of Americans have to live by the rule of a government they did not elect. The people are not there to serve the law; the law is there to serve the people.
And yes, I'll do the same thing if Biden wins the EC but loses the popular vote.
The funny irony is that if certain demographic trends hold in the US -- Republicans continue to make inroads in the Midwest while Democrats flip Texas -- we could very well end up in a political system in 10 or 20 years where Republicans cannot win the EC without a sizable popular vote margin. It's a shame that Republicans cannot see the capricious and undemocratic nature of the system.
Right now Zeke's source gives a Biden lead of 52%; NYTimes gives him 49 to 49 right now with Trump having a fraction of a percentage point of a lead and saying the AP called it for Biden--maybe because Election Day ballots are counted first and skew red, and now the results are turning blue and expected to stay that way? Zeke's source does says at the top, in bold, "Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 6th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 16th."
Zeke, I get the feeling that you're hoping for inaccuracies in polling. It's too early to call the election at all; it's definitely too early to decide the pollsters (who have been constantly pointing out ways Trump could win) got it all wrong.
We all need to settle down. It's not great, but GA is back in play, WI is going to go to Biden, which would certainly mean MI is as well. We were warned about the "red mirage" for weeks, and all of us (including me) are still having an honest to god panic attack about it. This was, of course, ALSO caused by the pandemic, because this massive amount of early and mail-in votes would have never taken place in a normal situation. Am I scared shitless?? Yeah. But we knew Hilary was toast at midnight 4 years ago. This is not a lost cause.
As fucking predicted for 4 years, here he goes. This is after he deleted a tweet that spelled "polls" as "poles". And people wonder why we're so despondent this is close:
We all need to settle down. It's not great, but GA is back in play, WI is going to go to Biden, which would certainly mean MI is as well. We were warned about the "red mirage" for weeks, and all of us (including me) are still having an honest to god panic attack about it. This was, of course, ALSO caused by the pandemic, because this massive amount of early and mail-in votes would have never taken place in a normal situation. Am I scared shitless?? Yeah. But we knew Hilary was toast at midnight 4 years ago. This is not a lost cause.
Sadly it looks like we're entering the Trump and Republican attempts to use lawsuits to try and steal the election phase. Even with the remaining votes likely to heavily favor Biden, we already see Biden up by about 1.3 million votes nationwide, yet Trump is saying that he's ahead. As you said above, that margin going to grow into the several million.
I just don't see how any sensible person cannot react with disgust to something like that. You certainly cannot say you sincerely believe in liberty, democracy or rule of law if you do.
We all need to settle down. It's not great, but GA is back in play, WI is going to go to Biden, which would certainly mean MI is as well. We were warned about the "red mirage" for weeks, and all of us (including me) are still having an honest to god panic attack about it. This was, of course, ALSO caused by the pandemic, because this massive amount of early and mail-in votes would have never taken place in a normal situation. Am I scared shitless?? Yeah. But we knew Hilary was toast at midnight 4 years ago. This is not a lost cause.
Sadly it looks like we're entering the Trump and Republican attempts to use lawsuits to try and steal the election phase. Even with the remaining votes likely to heavily favor Biden, we already see Biden up by about 1.3 million votes nationwide, yet Trump is saying that he's ahead. As you said above, that margin going to grow into the several million.
I just don't see how any sensible person cannot react with disgust to something like that. You certainly cannot say you sincerely believe in liberty, democracy or rule of law if you do.
Those people don't believe in those things except as buzzwords to be discarded at a moments notice. Well, they certainly believe it should apply to CERTAIN people, but most definitely not themselves.
Susan Collins appears to be up on Gideon by 5 or 6 points right now, despite Biden leading in the state. That's another crushing blow to Democratic senate seats.
It's basically now down to Hickenlooper, Kelly and winning a GA and Montana seat. I dont think that's going to happen at all...
We wanted so badly for this to just be OVER tonight, and it's just not going to happen. If Biden does pull out GA, however, this whole thing is gonna feel a bit silly in retrospect.
The Senate is a disaster. Even if Biden wins, McConnell maintains his death grip on everything. And Biden wouldn't even be able to appoint a vacant court seat, as we by now know full well.
Biden wins NE-02. If he gets WI and MI this shit is over. Or, it would be if the looming threat of legal challenges wasn't hanging over us like the Sword of Damocles.
Biden wins NE-02. If he gets WI and MI this shit is over. Or, it would be if the looming threat of legal challenges wasn't hanging over us like the Sword of Damocles.
If nothing else, having a bunch of areas Trump's lawyers would have to contest makes winning via lawsuit less likely. As we talked about earlier, the nightmare was everything hinging on just PA. With AZ and now Omaha in Biden's pocket, that greatly expands the map.
Van Jones: 1. Republicans, if a lot of people show up to vote it doesn't necessarily hurt you.
2. Democrats, when diverse people vote it doesn't always go our way. This is an election not a census.
3. These polls are not to be trusted, there is something wrong with the polling industry.
Susan Collins appears to be up on Gideon by 5 or 6 points right now, despite Biden leading in the state. That's another crushing blow to Democratic senate seats.
It's basically now down to Hickenlooper, Kelly and winning a GA and Montana seat. I dont think that's going to happen at all...
I had forgotten about the Alaska race, and probably a longshot, but along with Montana it's a weird state for Senate votes. So there's an outside shot there. Gideon is down right now but Maine has ranked-choice voting which might help close the gap. Notable that we are seeing something of a repeat of 2016 where Republicans in several states are outperforming Trump -- Cornyn in Texas, Tillis in NC, and now Collins in Maine. There's a lesson there for conservatives.
Van Jones: 1. Republicans, if a lot of people show up to vote it doesn't necessarily hurt you.
2. Democrats, when diverse people vote it doesn't always go our way. This is an election not a census.
3. These polls are not to be trusted, there is something wrong with the polling industry.
Are Democrats complaining about #2?? Is there an example of that he'd like to present?? Only one candidate is literally calling for votes to stop being counted when the 3 crucial states aren't even at 50%.
Susan Collins appears to be up on Gideon by 5 or 6 points right now, despite Biden leading in the state. That's another crushing blow to Democratic senate seats.
It's basically now down to Hickenlooper, Kelly and winning a GA and Montana seat. I dont think that's going to happen at all...
I had forgotten about the Alaska race, and probably a longshot, but along with Montana it's a weird state for Senate votes. So there's an outside shot there. Gideon is down right now but Maine has ranked-choice voting which might help close the gap. Notable that we are seeing something of a repeat of 2016 where Republicans in several states are outperforming Trump -- Cornyn in Texas, Tillis in NC, and now Collins in Maine. There's a lesson there for conservatives.
What's the lesson for Conservatives? Kiss Trump's rear end as hard as you can and they'll vote for you anyway even if they don't quite like him as much as they like you?
Van Jones: 1. Republicans, if a lot of people show up to vote it doesn't necessarily hurt you.
2. Democrats, when diverse people vote it doesn't always go our way. This is an election not a census.
3. These polls are not to be trusted, there is something wrong with the polling industry.
Are Democrats complaining about #2?? Is there an example of that he'd like to present?? Only one candidate is literally calling for votes to stop being counted when the 3 crucial states aren't even at 50%.
I think his point is that there's a faction of Democrats who believe that demographic change is destiny, and that because the USA is consistently becoming a less white country overall, this will benefit Democrats over the long haul.
The truth is that while minorities do absolutely vote for Democrats rather than Republicans, they cannot be taken for granted. If a candidate (such as Biden) makes a very strong play to win back working white class voters (like he did), he may see some other votes fall away from him (Such as the Latino vote, in which Biden is underperforming relative to Clinton in a big way).
Trump has also gained approx. 1.5 million popular votes at 65% counted. I think that percentage is wrong but its growing, independent or closet trump voters?
Susan Collins appears to be up on Gideon by 5 or 6 points right now, despite Biden leading in the state. That's another crushing blow to Democratic senate seats.
It's basically now down to Hickenlooper, Kelly and winning a GA and Montana seat. I dont think that's going to happen at all...
I had forgotten about the Alaska race, and probably a longshot, but along with Montana it's a weird state for Senate votes. So there's an outside shot there. Gideon is down right now but Maine has ranked-choice voting which might help close the gap. Notable that we are seeing something of a repeat of 2016 where Republicans in several states are outperforming Trump -- Cornyn in Texas, Tillis in NC, and now Collins in Maine. There's a lesson there for conservatives.
What's the lesson for Conservatives? Kiss Trump's rear end as hard as you can and they'll vote for you anyway even if they don't quite like him as much as they like you?
The lesson is that they would be even more competitive in elections without Trump.
Van Jones: 1. Republicans, if a lot of people show up to vote it doesn't necessarily hurt you.
2. Democrats, when diverse people vote it doesn't always go our way. This is an election not a census.
3. These polls are not to be trusted, there is something wrong with the polling industry.
Are Democrats complaining about #2?? Is there an example of that he'd like to present?? Only one candidate is literally calling for votes to stop being counted when the 3 crucial states aren't even at 50%.
I think his point is that there's a faction of Democrats who believe that demographic change is destiny, and that because the USA is consistently becoming a less white country overall, this will benefit Democrats over the long haul.
The truth is that while minorities do absolutely vote for Democrats rather than Republicans, they cannot be taken for granted. If a candidate (such as Biden) makes a very strong play to win back working white class voters (like he did), he may see some other votes fall away from him (Such as the Latino vote, in which Biden is underperforming relative to Clinton in a big way).
I agree with this but 2nd and 3rd generation latinos are voting/ will vote republican, I'll try and find the article I read it from but thats the trend. Same article also said that Cubans would vote overwhelmingly for trump.
The Asian communities are also showing a republican trend as the generation go by.
Trump has also gained approx. 1.5 million popular votes at 65% counted. I think that percentage is wrong but its growing, independent or closet trump voters?
I'd be cautious about this take. Both sides are gaining voters. What we're instead seeing is that more people will vote if you make it easier to vote. Since there was widespread growth in mail-in and early voting options in this pandemic year.
My cousin was texting me "talk to me" all night, basically meaning "tell me it's gonna be alright" in regards to the numbers. I had been looking forward to doing just that and letting her know. But I saw nothing to be able to do that truthfully. She literally popped some anti-depressants and went to bed. I probably should be on those and anti-anxiety meds, but I've always wanted to do things "clean" because of how screwed up prescription drugs made my dad. At this point, I just wish I had a bottle of Tylenol PM. Honest to god stress headache. I hate this. I don't know if I can continue with this as a hobby. Which is exactly what they want. But I just don't know if I can invest in this anymore.
Trump is outright declaring victory in states he has absolutely not won as of this hour. We warned this would happen. He is doing this from the White House. This is now basically an attempted coup in action. This is so fucking dangerous. Donald Trump just declared war on democracy. It was always going to come to this. Shame on me for not wanting to believe it could be this close again. But far more shame should be reserved for everyone who dismissed the attempted authoritarian takeover that is now in progress:
There is no room for interpretation here. The President got on national TV and said the counting of votes needs to stop before it is finished. There is no defense that can be offered of this, there is no explaining this away. This man is a despot:
I didn't post much of anything from her over the last four years, because, hey, I just would have been dismissed as a alarmist kook. But Sarah Kendzior, the author of "Hiding in Plain Sight" was right about EVERYTHING this entire time. She warned us about every step that led to this moment. And now we're here.
I'm perplexed at the millions of people who have seen how Trump has killed Americans and ruined our lives and reputation and decided they want more of that.
Like, he's going to be even crazier in a second term obviously. Fauci is going to fired. The post office will be killed off. Social security is in danger. People voted for this lying fascist billionaire? WTF lol. The census, Republicans are going to draw maps and gerrymander the hell out of states, you wanted this America?
He's going to attack us and people are going to fight back. People want this? Uh, what the hell America?
I'm perplexed at the millions of people who have seen how Trump has killed Americans and ruined our lives and reputation and decided they want more of that.
Like, he's going to be even crazier in a second term obviously. Fauci is going to fired. The post office will be killed off. Social security is in danger. People voted for this lying fascist billionaire? WTF lol.
He's going to attack us and people are going to fight back. People want this? Uh, what the hell America?
Assuming he DOESN'T win a legitimate vote count (because I'm not dismissing the idea that he might, given our fucked beyond belief system) then it's ridiculous to call it a second "term" at all.
Donald Trump declared victory in his fight for a second term against former Vice President Joe Biden, saying he is poised to ask the Supreme Court to halt all vote-counting even as ballots remain untallied.
“Millions of people voted for us tonight. A very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people,” the president said from the East Room of the White House. “And we won’t stand for it.”
“Frankly, we did win this election,” Mr Trump said to cheering supporters.
“We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop,” Mr Trump added.
Something is so clearly wrong in this country. First off, I am ready to declare that polling is DEAD. If Biden does win in WI and PA, the margin is gonna be razor-thin. We were going off the only data we had, and the data was wrong. Wrong to the point of absolute absurdity. But let's assume Trump stays in office, legitimately or illegitimately. COVID-19 cases hit 100,000 today. People are going to continue to die at even larger rates than we've been seeing over the past few months. They will do nothing to stop it, and it's going to completely engulf the entire country. This WILL happen. COVID-19 is not going to "go away" with the election as so many seem to believe. Is there ANY amount of death and misery that will be a breaking point for this madness?? Because it doesn't seem like there is. I'm seriously considering confining myself to my apartment indefinitely, because this shit is about to go totally off the rails.
It's not just going to be up in the air tonight. But probably all week. So, take a breath. Don't have any expectations of a victor today or tomorrow. It's also indicative of just how large the uncounted vote is in these states. So, there's nothing we as amateurs can extrapolate from their current counts. We saw this tonight in Virginia, FWIW.
Georgia is a bit of a wildcard here. If it gets called somehow then it's impossible to see Trump having success in those other states (it's still kind of hard imo given other results).
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
Poor ABC, they are trying to put their heads around why trump came out and called the election a fraud and he has the wider paths to win the election. I kind of feel their pain.
Comments
Odd to be on about media inaccuracy and not adhere to the standard yourself.
The funny irony is that if certain demographic trends hold in the US -- Republicans continue to make inroads in the Midwest while Democrats flip Texas -- we could very well end up in a political system in 10 or 20 years where Republicans cannot win the EC without a sizable popular vote margin. It's a shame that Republicans cannot see the capricious and undemocratic nature of the system.
Zeke, I get the feeling that you're hoping for inaccuracies in polling. It's too early to call the election at all; it's definitely too early to decide the pollsters (who have been constantly pointing out ways Trump could win) got it all wrong.
Sadly it looks like we're entering the Trump and Republican attempts to use lawsuits to try and steal the election phase. Even with the remaining votes likely to heavily favor Biden, we already see Biden up by about 1.3 million votes nationwide, yet Trump is saying that he's ahead. As you said above, that margin going to grow into the several million.
I just don't see how any sensible person cannot react with disgust to something like that. You certainly cannot say you sincerely believe in liberty, democracy or rule of law if you do.
Those people don't believe in those things except as buzzwords to be discarded at a moments notice. Well, they certainly believe it should apply to CERTAIN people, but most definitely not themselves.
It's basically now down to Hickenlooper, Kelly and winning a GA and Montana seat. I dont think that's going to happen at all...
The Senate is a disaster. Even if Biden wins, McConnell maintains his death grip on everything. And Biden wouldn't even be able to appoint a vacant court seat, as we by now know full well.
If nothing else, having a bunch of areas Trump's lawyers would have to contest makes winning via lawsuit less likely. As we talked about earlier, the nightmare was everything hinging on just PA. With AZ and now Omaha in Biden's pocket, that greatly expands the map.
2. Democrats, when diverse people vote it doesn't always go our way. This is an election not a census.
3. These polls are not to be trusted, there is something wrong with the polling industry.
I had forgotten about the Alaska race, and probably a longshot, but along with Montana it's a weird state for Senate votes. So there's an outside shot there. Gideon is down right now but Maine has ranked-choice voting which might help close the gap. Notable that we are seeing something of a repeat of 2016 where Republicans in several states are outperforming Trump -- Cornyn in Texas, Tillis in NC, and now Collins in Maine. There's a lesson there for conservatives.
Are Democrats complaining about #2?? Is there an example of that he'd like to present?? Only one candidate is literally calling for votes to stop being counted when the 3 crucial states aren't even at 50%.
What's the lesson for Conservatives? Kiss Trump's rear end as hard as you can and they'll vote for you anyway even if they don't quite like him as much as they like you?
I think his point is that there's a faction of Democrats who believe that demographic change is destiny, and that because the USA is consistently becoming a less white country overall, this will benefit Democrats over the long haul.
The truth is that while minorities do absolutely vote for Democrats rather than Republicans, they cannot be taken for granted. If a candidate (such as Biden) makes a very strong play to win back working white class voters (like he did), he may see some other votes fall away from him (Such as the Latino vote, in which Biden is underperforming relative to Clinton in a big way).
The lesson is that they would be even more competitive in elections without Trump.
I agree with this but 2nd and 3rd generation latinos are voting/ will vote republican, I'll try and find the article I read it from but thats the trend. Same article also said that Cubans would vote overwhelmingly for trump.
The Asian communities are also showing a republican trend as the generation go by.
I'd be cautious about this take. Both sides are gaining voters. What we're instead seeing is that more people will vote if you make it easier to vote. Since there was widespread growth in mail-in and early voting options in this pandemic year.
There is no room for interpretation here. The President got on national TV and said the counting of votes needs to stop before it is finished. There is no defense that can be offered of this, there is no explaining this away. This man is a despot:
I didn't post much of anything from her over the last four years, because, hey, I just would have been dismissed as a alarmist kook. But Sarah Kendzior, the author of "Hiding in Plain Sight" was right about EVERYTHING this entire time. She warned us about every step that led to this moment. And now we're here.
Like, he's going to be even crazier in a second term obviously. Fauci is going to fired. The post office will be killed off. Social security is in danger. People voted for this lying fascist billionaire? WTF lol. The census, Republicans are going to draw maps and gerrymander the hell out of states, you wanted this America?
He's going to attack us and people are going to fight back. People want this? Uh, what the hell America?
Assuming he DOESN'T win a legitimate vote count (because I'm not dismissing the idea that he might, given our fucked beyond belief system) then it's ridiculous to call it a second "term" at all.
“Millions of people voted for us tonight. A very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people,” the president said from the East Room of the White House. “And we won’t stand for it.”
“Frankly, we did win this election,” Mr Trump said to cheering supporters.
“We want the law to be used in a proper manner, so we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop,” Mr Trump added.
As you said jj,
It's not just going to be up in the air tonight. But probably all week. So, take a breath. Don't have any expectations of a victor today or tomorrow. It's also indicative of just how large the uncounted vote is in these states. So, there's nothing we as amateurs can extrapolate from their current counts. We saw this tonight in Virginia, FWIW.
Georgia is a bit of a wildcard here. If it gets called somehow then it's impossible to see Trump having success in those other states (it's still kind of hard imo given other results).
It's going to be a long week.
Trump already declared victory and described his scheme to have the Supreme Court hand him the Presidency.
He's not going to be patient. He's going to go to the Supreme Court and send in militia goons or Bill Barr's goons or his lawyer goons.
The coup isn't waiting or willing to be patient.