Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
Actually looking a lot better with a late night count in MI and WI. Biden has pulled ahead in Wisconsin with only votes that trend toward him remaining. The final count might not be all that close. The same trend seems to be happening in Michigan. It's more or less going down as a number of outlets predicted, with the late-counted mail-in ballots from urban districts. Nevada is closer than expected but unlikely to flip. If all that holds, PA doesn't matter.
It seems to be quite tight. The large difference in voter preference for in person vs mail voting makes numbers really hard to predict. Unfortunately given his early lead this will almost certainly give rise to right-wing conspiracy theories regardless of whom wins. Don't underestimate what this steady undermining of confidence in the validity of elections will do in the long run.
Apparently the vote split seems to have surprised even some of the experts. Again, I'd urge some caution on takes that say the polls missed just yet. We can say that about Florida (though it's still in the MoE) but not much else.
Went to bed right after I knew Trump secured Florida.
Not surprised Trump is declaring victory and the votes to be stopped counting. He's been saying this for the last month. He really should just be ignored. I was also thinking, I wonder if he loses this election if Twitter will ban his account now that he is no longer in public office. I doubt it.
As of now, it looks like GA is going to Trump. I don't think Biden will make up the +100,000 votes in the Atlanta tally.
NC looks like it is going to be Trump's as well although that split is 76, 700 vote difference. Biden could push for a recount but I don't think it'll swing.
If NV goes to Biden (which it is looking, but once again, it's close and recountable close), it's basically down to which Candidate can win 2 out of the 3 WI, MI, PA.
Hopefully Biden can sweep Michigan and Wisconsin so we don't have to wait on PA, but it's 2020 and something tells me those two are going to split, and PA is going to go to Trump with the margin of victory being less than the mail in ballots that were not approved to be tallied because of signature issues or other stupid stuff.
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I've said this in the past, but I will repeat it. There is nothing wrong with the Electoral College, just how states actually use it. It shouldn't be 'winner takes all' but an actual division of the vote between candidates.
Take California's 55. Trump won close to a third of it, so 18 of those votes should go to him and 37 should go to Biden.
Biden makes up those lost 18 by securing 18 or 19 from Texas's 38 being evenly split.
This type of approach will make each vote actually count more in the long run, but still prevent highly populated states just controlling the rest of them.
On the Election College: I think in a Federal State there needs to be balance between voting power per head and per state. What you find fair there might depend on your personal opinion, but I think the balance in the US is too far in favor of state power.
There are three main sources of power: the House, the Senate and the Presidency. All favor smaller states. I feel at least one of the three should be based on simple proportionality, ideally two out of three.
Went to bed right after I knew Trump secured Florida.
Not surprised Trump is declaring victory and the votes to be stopped counting. He's been saying this for the last month. He really should just be ignored. I was also thinking, I wonder if he loses this election if Twitter will ban his account now that he is no longer in public office. I doubt it.
As of now, it looks like GA is going to Trump. I don't think Biden will make up the +100,000 votes in the Atlanta tally.
NC looks like it is going to be Trump's as well although that split is 76, 700 vote difference. Biden could push for a recount but I don't think it'll swing.
If NV goes to Biden (which it is looking, but once again, it's close and recountable close), it's basically down to which Candidate can win 2 out of the 3 WI, MI, PA.
Hopefully Biden can sweep Michigan and Wisconsin so we don't have to wait on PA, but it's 2020 and something tells me those two are going to split, and PA is going to go to Trump with the margin of victory being less than the mail in ballots that were not approved to be tallied because of signature issues or other stupid stuff.
~
I've said this in the past, but I will repeat it. There is nothing wrong with the Electoral College, just how states actually use it. It shouldn't be 'winner takes all' but an actual division of the vote between candidates.
Take California's 55. Trump won close to a third of it, so 18 of those votes should go to him and 37 should go to Biden.
Biden makes up those lost 18 by securing 18 or 19 from Texas's 38 being evenly split.
This type of approach will make each vote actually count more in the long run, but still prevent highly populated states just controlling the rest of them.
Logic is useless when it comes to politics. I'm not sure even the Democratic Party would want to change things now since they're really close to tipping Texas. If the Dems secure Texas (or possibly Florida) at some point, it's game over for the small states.
My conscience is clean. I didn't vote for Mr. Orange. If he wins I guess I'll have to settle for my 401k going up in value. Not a total bust at least...
Biden is now ahead in WI. These votes are clearly coming in his way. MI is tied and more votes are going to go to Biden. Trump is now on track to lose, yet that clearly doesn't feel like the narrative, does it??
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
When Trump made that speech, he was WELL aware of what would happen when the votes came in. That's why he made it. And now it is at least FAIRLY clear (though not guaranteed) Biden is, in fact, going to win, and MAY still take GA. Yet Trump has, as predicted, planted his flag and barricaded himself in the White House.
It's an utterly amazing argument. He wants to KEEP counting in AZ (where he is behind) and STOP counting in WI, MI, and PA.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
I can't see the GOP being anything but more Trump-like in a post-2020 era. These past elections have shown that such a strategy is not only viable, but winnable, even when you make a large series of unforced errors. I mean, Trump did almost nothing for his base. I'm sure I'm not the only one who considered sitting this one out for that reason. Had he been able to run on even one or two accomplishments, things could have been entirely different. If he loses it is his own fault, but one thing is for sure, his ideology has been vindicated.
My conscience is clean. I didn't vote for Mr. Orange. If he wins I guess I'll have to settle for my 401k going up in value. Not a total bust at least...
If he wins legitimately, I am personally ok with it.
How American elections are setup, the populace has actually spoken and enough of them don’t care about his antics and are pretty much just looking at the economy.
I honestly think this is where Biden failed in his approach. He needed to remind people that the economy was on coast from all the work his and Obama’s administration did. He needed to point out his time as VP showed more job growth than Trump’s even pre coronavirus.
I think enough Republican voters are afraid of a recession than their neighbour dropping dead from a pandemic that looks like it is too late to do anything about.
That said, the votes need to be counted. Trump needs to keep his mouth shut until they are and then he can start challenging states like NV or the ‘bitch 3’. If they are close, it is in his right to request recounts. You sure as hell Biden is going to do the same thing.
As for your 401k, I don’t expect a candidate who can even handle his campaign spending properly to handle a now fragile economy for next 4 years. Goodluck with that. Hope you’re not retiring soon.
My conscience is clean. I didn't vote for Mr. Orange. If he wins I guess I'll have to settle for my 401k going up in value. Not a total bust at least...
If he wins legitimately, I am personally ok with it.
How American elections are setup, the populace has actually spoken and enough of them don’t care about his antics and are pretty much just looking at the economy.
I honestly think this is where Biden failed in his approach. He needed to remind people that the economy was on coast from all the work his and Obama’s administration did. He needed to point out his time as VP showed more job growth than Trump’s even pre coronavirus.
I think enough Republican voters are afraid of a recession than their neighbour dropping dead from a pandemic that looks like it is too late to do anything about.
That said, the votes need to be counted. Trump needs to keep his mouth shut until they are and then he can start challenging states like NV or the ‘bitch 3’. If they are close, it is in his right to request recounts. You sure as hell Biden is going to do the same thing.
As for your 401k, I don’t expect a candidate who can even handle his campaign spending properly to handle a now fragile economy for next 4 years. Goodluck with that. Hope you’re not retiring soon.
Retiring would be a good thing to do if you think the economy is going down. That's when you move your assets to lower-risk.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
I can't see the GOP being anything but more Trump-like in a post-2020 era. These past elections have shown that such a strategy is not only viable, but winnable, even when you make a large series of unforced errors.
I honestly don’t know if anyone was calling for a blow out. What pundits were saying is that to know the election by last night, Biden is going to have to win by a landslide.
They have been basically saying it was going to be this scenario from the get go. These 3 states and maybe Georgia because how it played in 2018 will determine the election and here we are.
I think Texas was in play. Deeper than it was in the past. I kinda wanna do a deep dive this time with voter turnout per county and compare that with access to polling stations, to actually see if voter suppression is as real as some claim it is, but that’s a lot of work, and really, I don’t care that much. It’s not my horse, not even my track, so I’ll grab the popcorn and watch it burnout from the North.
Even though Biden may flip all three rust-belt states, AZ and possibly GA, and another significant popular vote win, this is somehow a de facto loss. Because we are grading on the largest curve imaginable. Biden is not required to get 400 electoral votes. He is required to get 270.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
And a popular vote should never determine an election with a population this size and this much geographical differences.
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
When Trump made that speech, he was WELL aware of what would happen when the votes came in. That's why he made it. And now it is at least FAIRLY clear (though not guaranteed) Biden is, in fact, going to win, and MAY still take GA. Yet Trump has, as predicted, planted his flag and barricaded himself in the White House.
It's an utterly amazing argument. He wants to KEEP counting in AZ (where he is behind) and STOP counting in WI, MI, and PA.
It's basically over. No reputable newsroom can call it but we're essentially down to what was said about this race from the start. Trump essentially has to sweep all the currently uncalled states. But the extreme partisan split in how the vote was counted this year means that there simply are no Trump boxes of vote left on the board.
Biden moved ahead overnight in Wisconsin, as the urban votes came in. We're in the midst of seeing the same evaporation of Trump's lead in Michigan. That alone seals it, so long as NV and AZ hold -- and again, the same dynamic of outstanding vote is there.
But there's more! If the remaining mail-in votes in PA vote the way they have so far, Biden wins there too (this is per NYT analysts). And it seems like there's a slightly better than 50/50 odds for Biden in Georgia too.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
And a popular vote should never determine an election with a population this size and this much geographical differences.
Yes, it should. Unless you think arbitrarily drawn lines by settlers and government agencies have more worth than human beings.
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
When Trump made that speech, he was WELL aware of what would happen when the votes came in. That's why he made it. And now it is at least FAIRLY clear (though not guaranteed) Biden is, in fact, going to win, and MAY still take GA. Yet Trump has, as predicted, planted his flag and barricaded himself in the White House.
It's an utterly amazing argument. He wants to KEEP counting in AZ (where he is behind) and STOP counting in WI, MI, and PA.
It's basically over. No reputable newsroom can call it but we're essentially down to what was said about this race from the start. Trump essentially has to sweep all the currently uncalled states. But the extreme partisan split in how the vote was counted this year means that there simply are no Trump boxes of vote left on the board.
Biden moved ahead overnight in Wisconsin, as the urban votes came in. We're in the midst of seeing the same evaporation of Trump's lead in Michigan. That alone seals it, so long as NV and AZ hold -- and again, the same dynamic of outstanding vote is there.
But there's more! If the remaining mail-in votes in PA vote the way they have so far, Biden wins there too (this is per NYT analysts). And it seems like there's a slightly better than 50/50 odds for Biden in Georgia too.
This scenario is a solid (albeit not spectacular) victory. Everyone (except you) has ignored the exact warnings we gave ourselves for weeks. This is turning out exactly like 2018, where early dread because of Florida and a missed pipe dream in Texas completely upend the narrative, yet waiting even 12 hours completely shifts the trajectory.
Even though Biden may flip all three rust-belt states, AZ and possibly GA, and another significant popular vote win, this is somehow a de facto loss. Because we are grading on the largest curve imaginable. Biden is not required to get 400 electoral votes. He is required to get 270.
I wonder what folks who are saying "this isn't a repudiation" said about the 2016 victory? The one where they didn't even get a majority of voters on their side
Even though Biden may flip all three rust-belt states, AZ and possibly GA, and another significant popular vote win, this is somehow a de facto loss. Because we are grading on the largest curve imaginable. Biden is not required to get 400 electoral votes. He is required to get 270.
I wonder what folks who are saying "this isn't a repudiation" said about the 2016 victory? The one where they didn't even get a majority of voters on their side
I think we've established by now that residents of large blue states scarcely count as real citizens at all in this world-view.
Yeah, he's going to make an effort to steal it. I don't deny that. But a legitimate count will have to wait regardless of his actions. (Though it didn't have to be this way if Republican state legislatures had voted otherwise). That's all I'm saying.
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
When Trump made that speech, he was WELL aware of what would happen when the votes came in. That's why he made it. And now it is at least FAIRLY clear (though not guaranteed) Biden is, in fact, going to win, and MAY still take GA. Yet Trump has, as predicted, planted his flag and barricaded himself in the White House.
It's an utterly amazing argument. He wants to KEEP counting in AZ (where he is behind) and STOP counting in WI, MI, and PA.
It's basically over. No reputable newsroom can call it but we're essentially down to what was said about this race from the start. Trump essentially has to sweep all the currently uncalled states. But the extreme partisan split in how the vote was counted this year means that there simply are no Trump boxes of vote left on the board.
Biden moved ahead overnight in Wisconsin, as the urban votes came in. We're in the midst of seeing the same evaporation of Trump's lead in Michigan. That alone seals it, so long as NV and AZ hold -- and again, the same dynamic of outstanding vote is there.
But there's more! If the remaining mail-in votes in PA vote the way they have so far, Biden wins there too (this is per NYT analysts). And it seems like there's a slightly better than 50/50 odds for Biden in Georgia too.
This scenario is a solid (albeit not spectacular) victory. Everyone (except you) has ignored the exact warnings we gave ourselves for weeks. This is turning out exactly like 2018, where early dread because of Florida and a missed pipe dream in Texas completely upend the narrative, yet waiting even 12 hours completely shifts the trajectory.
A big second thing people are missing is that there remains a tremendous outstanding vote even in the called blue states. We saw this in 2016 when California took weeks to report and we even went to bed on election night with a Trump popular vote win.
Nate Silver did some rough back-of-the-napkin calculation and, you'll like this, predicts about a 5.5 million vote margin. So that's close to your guess. And about a 4-5% margin. That's still a bigger margin than 2012.
From an outside perspective my concern is how the next president, whoever he is, will deal with Covid. US GDP represents 15% of global GDP, so it follows that if the US economy takes a big enough hit from Covid then many of the rest of the world's economies will follow it down the drain. It all really depends on whether the next president puts an economic stimulus package in place to counter Covid or holds out in the hope of a quick and effective vaccine.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
And a popular vote should never determine an election with a population this size and this much geographical differences.
Yes, it should. Unless you think arbitrarily drawn lines by settlers and government agencies have more worth than human beings.
Yep. And here is a scenario (Canadian):
Toronto wants to make a big for the Olympics. To raise money for the bid, the federal government will impose a new international shipping tax that comes in through boats.
This tax does not effect the largest population, but the benefits go directly to them. At the same time, lower populated areas like Halifax, will be hit but their voice and economy isn’t as important as Toronto’s in a popular vote situation.
Or Toronto gets to use PEI as their dump. All garbage from Toronto goes to PEI, freeing up Ontario’s landfills. The 160,000 population of PEI shouldn’t have a say in that decision. An extreme example but still an example of how higher density populations can bully lower ones in popular vote settings.
The polling is, once again, reasonably close nationally, but absolutely broken on the state level. I will have to own up to the reality that there are, in fact, Trump voters who are simply not being picked up in these polls. Massive amounts of them. Whether it is because they are "shy" hasn't been established, but the polls are not catching them when Trump is on the ballot. So I'm taking my L on that one right now.
The fact that it came so close, it could still go either way as I type this, when all the mainstream pundits were swearing up and down this was going to be a knock out landslide, Texas was in play and Biden had a big lead, etc, is reassuring. Yet again, the opinion makers and pundits demonstrate they know very little about very little and, like so many others in this country nowadays, let their personal biases interfere with what is right in front of their face.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
And a popular vote should never determine an election with a population this size and this much geographical differences.
Yes, it should. Unless you think arbitrarily drawn lines by settlers and government agencies have more worth than human beings.
Yep. And here is a scenario (Canadian):
Toronto wants to make a big for the Olympics. To raise money for the bid, the federal government will impose a new international shipping tax that comes in through boats.
This tax does not effect the largest population, but the benefits go directly to them. At the same time, lower populated areas like Halifax, will be hit but their voice and economy isn’t as important as Toronto’s in a popular vote situation.
Or Toronto gets to use PEI as their dump. All garbage from Toronto goes to PEI, freeing up Ontario’s landfills. The 160,000 population of PEI shouldn’t have a say in that decision. An extreme example but still an example of how higher density populations can bully lower ones in popular vote settings.
A referendum is not the same as a population choosing their representatives. But even so, the Electoral College does not benefit small states.
What's the most important state everyone talked about in this election? Pennsylvania -- the fifth most populous state. What's been one of the most important states in recent presidential elections? Florida. The fourth most populous state.
And I reiterate what I said above, demographic changes are going to slide Texas very quickly into this category.
What states don't we really talk about alot during the election? New Hampshire. Nevada. Iowa. Still competitive states!
The Biden Latino outreach was shit. On the one hand, they did the responsible thing and didn't try to kill more people by canvassing for the last three months. But the numbers in Florida in Texas aren't good on that front. But, again, they were essentially punished for acting responsibly while the Trump campaign was holding rallies that are literally killing people.
Comments
He's not going to steal anything, he was just playing to his base. This is a Constitutional Republic with laws and to think or to have that little faith in it is actually alarming.
I only said that he's going to make an effort.
The point is that what Trump is saying is him explicitly expressing his own lack of faith.
Apparently the vote split seems to have surprised even some of the experts. Again, I'd urge some caution on takes that say the polls missed just yet. We can say that about Florida (though it's still in the MoE) but not much else.
Went to bed right after I knew Trump secured Florida.
Not surprised Trump is declaring victory and the votes to be stopped counting. He's been saying this for the last month. He really should just be ignored. I was also thinking, I wonder if he loses this election if Twitter will ban his account now that he is no longer in public office. I doubt it.
As of now, it looks like GA is going to Trump. I don't think Biden will make up the +100,000 votes in the Atlanta tally.
NC looks like it is going to be Trump's as well although that split is 76, 700 vote difference. Biden could push for a recount but I don't think it'll swing.
If NV goes to Biden (which it is looking, but once again, it's close and recountable close), it's basically down to which Candidate can win 2 out of the 3 WI, MI, PA.
Hopefully Biden can sweep Michigan and Wisconsin so we don't have to wait on PA, but it's 2020 and something tells me those two are going to split, and PA is going to go to Trump with the margin of victory being less than the mail in ballots that were not approved to be tallied because of signature issues or other stupid stuff.
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I've said this in the past, but I will repeat it. There is nothing wrong with the Electoral College, just how states actually use it. It shouldn't be 'winner takes all' but an actual division of the vote between candidates.
Take California's 55. Trump won close to a third of it, so 18 of those votes should go to him and 37 should go to Biden.
Biden makes up those lost 18 by securing 18 or 19 from Texas's 38 being evenly split.
This type of approach will make each vote actually count more in the long run, but still prevent highly populated states just controlling the rest of them.
There are three main sources of power: the House, the Senate and the Presidency. All favor smaller states. I feel at least one of the three should be based on simple proportionality, ideally two out of three.
Logic is useless when it comes to politics. I'm not sure even the Democratic Party would want to change things now since they're really close to tipping Texas. If the Dems secure Texas (or possibly Florida) at some point, it's game over for the small states.
When Trump made that speech, he was WELL aware of what would happen when the votes came in. That's why he made it. And now it is at least FAIRLY clear (though not guaranteed) Biden is, in fact, going to win, and MAY still take GA. Yet Trump has, as predicted, planted his flag and barricaded himself in the White House.
It's an utterly amazing argument. He wants to KEEP counting in AZ (where he is behind) and STOP counting in WI, MI, and PA.
I can't see the GOP being anything but more Trump-like in a post-2020 era. These past elections have shown that such a strategy is not only viable, but winnable, even when you make a large series of unforced errors. I mean, Trump did almost nothing for his base. I'm sure I'm not the only one who considered sitting this one out for that reason. Had he been able to run on even one or two accomplishments, things could have been entirely different. If he loses it is his own fault, but one thing is for sure, his ideology has been vindicated.
If he wins legitimately, I am personally ok with it.
How American elections are setup, the populace has actually spoken and enough of them don’t care about his antics and are pretty much just looking at the economy.
I honestly think this is where Biden failed in his approach. He needed to remind people that the economy was on coast from all the work his and Obama’s administration did. He needed to point out his time as VP showed more job growth than Trump’s even pre coronavirus.
I think enough Republican voters are afraid of a recession than their neighbour dropping dead from a pandemic that looks like it is too late to do anything about.
That said, the votes need to be counted. Trump needs to keep his mouth shut until they are and then he can start challenging states like NV or the ‘bitch 3’. If they are close, it is in his right to request recounts. You sure as hell Biden is going to do the same thing.
As for your 401k, I don’t expect a candidate who can even handle his campaign spending properly to handle a now fragile economy for next 4 years. Goodluck with that. Hope you’re not retiring soon.
Retiring would be a good thing to do if you think the economy is going down. That's when you move your assets to lower-risk.
Democrats have now won 7 of the past 8 popular votes for president.
I honestly don’t know if anyone was calling for a blow out. What pundits were saying is that to know the election by last night, Biden is going to have to win by a landslide.
They have been basically saying it was going to be this scenario from the get go. These 3 states and maybe Georgia because how it played in 2018 will determine the election and here we are.
I think Texas was in play. Deeper than it was in the past. I kinda wanna do a deep dive this time with voter turnout per county and compare that with access to polling stations, to actually see if voter suppression is as real as some claim it is, but that’s a lot of work, and really, I don’t care that much. It’s not my horse, not even my track, so I’ll grab the popcorn and watch it burnout from the North.
And a popular vote should never determine an election with a population this size and this much geographical differences.
It's basically over. No reputable newsroom can call it but we're essentially down to what was said about this race from the start. Trump essentially has to sweep all the currently uncalled states. But the extreme partisan split in how the vote was counted this year means that there simply are no Trump boxes of vote left on the board.
Biden moved ahead overnight in Wisconsin, as the urban votes came in. We're in the midst of seeing the same evaporation of Trump's lead in Michigan. That alone seals it, so long as NV and AZ hold -- and again, the same dynamic of outstanding vote is there.
But there's more! If the remaining mail-in votes in PA vote the way they have so far, Biden wins there too (this is per NYT analysts). And it seems like there's a slightly better than 50/50 odds for Biden in Georgia too.
Yes, it should. Unless you think arbitrarily drawn lines by settlers and government agencies have more worth than human beings.
This scenario is a solid (albeit not spectacular) victory. Everyone (except you) has ignored the exact warnings we gave ourselves for weeks. This is turning out exactly like 2018, where early dread because of Florida and a missed pipe dream in Texas completely upend the narrative, yet waiting even 12 hours completely shifts the trajectory.
I wonder what folks who are saying "this isn't a repudiation" said about the 2016 victory? The one where they didn't even get a majority of voters on their side
I think we've established by now that residents of large blue states scarcely count as real citizens at all in this world-view.
A big second thing people are missing is that there remains a tremendous outstanding vote even in the called blue states. We saw this in 2016 when California took weeks to report and we even went to bed on election night with a Trump popular vote win.
Nate Silver did some rough back-of-the-napkin calculation and, you'll like this, predicts about a 5.5 million vote margin. So that's close to your guess. And about a 4-5% margin. That's still a bigger margin than 2012.
Yep. And here is a scenario (Canadian):
Toronto wants to make a big for the Olympics. To raise money for the bid, the federal government will impose a new international shipping tax that comes in through boats.
This tax does not effect the largest population, but the benefits go directly to them. At the same time, lower populated areas like Halifax, will be hit but their voice and economy isn’t as important as Toronto’s in a popular vote situation.
Or Toronto gets to use PEI as their dump. All garbage from Toronto goes to PEI, freeing up Ontario’s landfills. The 160,000 population of PEI shouldn’t have a say in that decision. An extreme example but still an example of how higher density populations can bully lower ones in popular vote settings.
A referendum is not the same as a population choosing their representatives. But even so, the Electoral College does not benefit small states.
What's the most important state everyone talked about in this election? Pennsylvania -- the fifth most populous state. What's been one of the most important states in recent presidential elections? Florida. The fourth most populous state.
And I reiterate what I said above, demographic changes are going to slide Texas very quickly into this category.
What states don't we really talk about alot during the election? New Hampshire. Nevada. Iowa. Still competitive states!